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Author Topic: 2011 season prediction (long)  (Read 7251 times)
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Volznut
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« on: August 17, 2011, 07:25:08 EDT »

Sept 3 – Montana, @ Knoxville

Montana is going to be one of the easier openers the Vols have had in recent years. On paper Montana does not have much to offer resistance with. On offense Montana will have inexperienced sophomore Jordan Johnson, and they do have some experienced WR’s returning, including seniors Antwon Moutra and Javin Sambano. On the OL they have some experience as well. On defense their strength is the linebacking corps. Still, the Grizzlies turned the ball over a lot last year and if they can’t hang on to the ball, they will be run out of Neyland stadium. Prediction:  UT  44   Montana  10

Sept 10 – Cincinnati, @ Knoxville

The Bearcats are a good team to play for UT before Florida, because they will present some challenges to the Vols defense. They had a lot of turnovers last year, which led to their 4-8 record, but they will be a much better team in 2011. QB Zach Collaros , WR DJ Woods, and RB Isiah Pead are a very effective combo. However, the OL features 3 newcomers, so this could be an issue for the Bearcats. On defense they have 10 starters returning, so this is a veteran bunch with experience. However, they finished at the bottom in the Big east statistically last year, so while they may be experienced, are they any good? Still I see the Vols struggle a little with them for a half. They pull away in the second half. Prediction:  UT 31   Cincinnati  14

Sept 17 – Florida, @ Gainesville, FL

So, the rivalry continues. This game was much closer than the final score indicates last year. It should not have been, because FL had a decided talent edge last year. The talent gap is much less this year with UT , but FL still has more talent, especially on defense. The question is, how will the offense do. QB John Brantley is questionable. He is learning a new pro style offense. He has no real backup, as Tyler Murphy and jeff Driskel are really not ready. The running game will feature guys like Demps, Rainey, Burton, and Gillislee. Burton is the wild card in the new offense. The guy to watch at WR will be soph Quinton Dunbar, who Weis will use a lot in his pro style offense. Look for Thompson and Hammond to get lots of  playing time as well. The OL is the big concern, as they Gators lost 4 veterans. On defense the DL will be the strength of the entire team. I look for this to actually be a low scoring game, but the Vols get Dooley’s first major win. Prediction  UT  21  FL  17

Oct 1 – Buffalo, @ Knoxville

The Buffalo football team is a relative unknown. No one is even sure who will be the starting QB, although the most impressive guy in the spring was Alex Zordich. However, senior Chazz Anderson, a transfer, will likely get the start. They cannot run the ball. Three starters return on the OL, but they were horrible last year. They do return three guys at WR. On defense, they are ok on the line, but the LB and secondary are not very strong. They could have some big problems against UT’s talented young receivers. I don’t look for this game to be very close, even though UT will be riding the high of Dooley’s first major win.  Prediction  UT 42   Buffalo 7

Oct 8 – Georgia, @ Knoxville

Georgia is a team that has been hit hard with injuries and attrition, especially at the OL and RB positions. This is a team that is also being asked a lot about their head coach’s future. On offense, they return Aaron Murray, who is a very solid QB – but he lost his primary weapon in AJ Green. Marlon Brown and Orson Charles return, but who will make plays? At RB they may have to go with freshman Isiah Crowell, as their top two guys from last year are no longer with the team. The OL is not deep either. On defense the dawgs have question marks at LB, and the secondary. Overall, this is a team that has some talent, but what will their mental makeup be? Prediction  UT 30  UGA 17

Oct 15 – LSU @ Knoxville

LSU is loaded. Jordan Jefferson played his best football at the end of last year, and if he continues that momentum, LSU will be hard to handle. QB Zach Mettenberger will push him.  They have experienced WRs, RBs, and OL. They do replace a few key starters on defense, including Patrick Peterson, but there is talent everywhere. Of course, UT basically beat this team last year, except for the last play, so what happens this year? Does LSU’s luck run out? I’m going to say they won’t need luck this year. Prediction UT 19   LSU 28

Oct 22, - Alabama @ Tuscaloosa, AL

Tough back to back games for the Vols. They roll into Bama after their first loss of the season. Bama will pretty much be the same. They will feature the best RB in the league, Trent Richardson. They will feature a great OL, nasty defense, and that will be how they win most games. UT on paper will have a problem matching up, and they will have problems scoring against the Bama D. Bama does have a new QB in AJ McCarron, but if he can just manage the game, Bama is hard to beat. I do think the Vols make it interesting, but Bama puts it away in the 4th. Prediction UT 14   Bama 24

Oct 29 – South Carolina, @ Knoxville

This is an interesting game. South Carolina is the most experienced squad in the SEC East. They will feature veteran QB Garcia, who has had more off the field issues than he has been at SC. If SC can keep from having to suspend him, they are ok. Marcus Lattimore is a stud RB, and Alshon “gas pumper” Jeffrey has all-American talent. Multiple offense. Defensively they will be good vs the run, and have issues stopping the pass. Vols will counter them with heavy doses of Bray to Hunter and Bray to Rogers. The turnovers will be the deciding factor. I simply can’t pick South Carolina in Knoxville, they do not fare well there. Prediction  UT  38    SC   31


Nov 5 – MTSU @ Knoxville

MTSU is a very inexperienced team in 2011 overall especially on defenese. New QB Logan Kilgore will try to spearhead the attack. He has some experienced WRs back, and Kyles and Cunningham will try to run behind a pretty veteran OL.  On defense, this is a very thin and inexperienced DL and secondary, with a couple of guys back at LB. That is not good news vs the Vols, who will have their offense humming. I look for  this game to be a major blowout.  Prediction  UT  56   MTSU  16

Nov 12 – Arkansas @ Fayetteville

This game could be a shootout. Arkansas has a lot of offensive weapons, and Bobby Petrino can get a QB ready. Tyler Wilson will have Greg Childs, Jarrius Wright, and Joe Adams to throw to. Big time RB Knile Davis had a major injury though, so who will replace him is the question. That could hurt a lot of the balance they need at offense, and the OL will be fairly inexperienced. On defense 9 out of 11 starters return, but this unit was not very good last year. I am thinking UT will go in and play well in this game, but it is tough to win this game on the road. Prediction   UT  30   Arkansas 41


Nov 19 – Vanderbilt @ Knoxville

Until their savior, Brian Kimbrow arrives, the 17 fans Vanderbilt has will not be able to have much fun in this game. Vanderbilt returns just about everyone on offense. Problem is – they scored an average of 12 points a game. Senior Larry Smith will be the starter at QB and he has little competition, but juco Jordan Rodgers could present some. Vandy does not run the ball well and won’t do so in 2011. The defense will be porous as well.  New head coach James Franklin – welcome to the SEC. Preciction: UT  37   vandy 13


Nov 26 – UK @ Lexington, KY

UK lost playmakers Locke, Cobb, and Matthews, and their starting QB. They’ll need some playmakers to step up. Newton will be the starting QB, and he looked terrible last year. Ray Sanders will be the running back to replace Locke, and he is a pretty good player. The OL should be one of the better ones UK has had in a while, but the problem will be the skill level of the skill players. On defense, UK could be a little better. More talent on the DL and more experience, but UK simply does not beat UT. Chalk up another one.  27 in a row.   Prediction  UT  40  UK  21

That gives UT a 9-3 (5-3) in the SEC. Big wins vs FL, UGA, and South Carolina, but losses to Bama, LSU, and Arkansas. Second in the East to South Carolina, who I think finishes 6-2.  

This is an optimistic outlook, obviously, but I don’t see UT losing to Montana, Cinci, Buffalo, MTSU, Vandy, or UK. That’s 6 games. I also don’t see an 0-6 vs LSU, SC, bama, UF, UGA, and Arkansas. We will go 3-3 with those guys.

« Last Edit: August 17, 2011, 07:34:23 EDT by Volznut » Logged
ReVOLver
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« Reply #1 on: August 17, 2011, 07:40:20 EDT »

I say 6-0 vs the ones you mention, and then 2-4 against the six better SEC teams on our schedule for an 8-4 record. Mostly I agree with your predictions except I would say we lose to UF and SC and beat LSU.
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murfvol
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« Reply #2 on: August 17, 2011, 08:00:11 EDT »

I think SC will be lower scoring, and I'd take Carolina, but otherwise I think it's good. Arkansas and Bama are the two games I think it'll be really tough to win, but I think we can split UF, UGA, LSU and SC.

We can't drop a cheap one.
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« Reply #3 on: August 17, 2011, 08:25:19 EDT »

I didn't realize the gators lost so much off their OL.  Interesting combo with a whole new offense coming in.  We have some recent experience with that.   

And as good an OC as Weiss supposedly is, his first year at Notre Dame was not impressive offense-wise.   Later on they clicked and the real problem was defense, but I suspect they will struggle a bit this year.
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« Reply #4 on: August 17, 2011, 09:01:09 EDT »

I think Cincinnati is going to be an interesting game for the Vols. Sure they sucked last year, but the year before they were undefeated in the regular season. They had a new coach last year so were their struggles due more to adjusting to new systems? Or did they just simply decline that much in talent in a year? Hopefully the Vols will not be taking them lightly and/or looking ahead to UF the next week. This is a game in which we cannot afford a slip-up. I think it will be a closer game than 31-14.
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« Reply #5 on: August 17, 2011, 09:33:38 EDT »

I think Cincinnati is going to be an interesting game for the Vols. Sure they sucked last year, but the year before they were undefeated in the regular season. They had a new coach last year so were their struggles due more to adjusting to new systems? Or did they just simply decline that much in talent in a year? Hopefully the Vols will not be taking them lightly and/or looking ahead to UF the next week. This is a game in which we cannot afford a slip-up. I think it will be a closer game than 31-14.

I think that's a barometer game. Struggle with them but win and we are probably looking at another .500 season. Lose and all bets are off. Beat them soundly and maybe we are better than we think.
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Inspector Vol
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« Reply #6 on: August 17, 2011, 10:27:08 EDT »

I don't if you should be scared for sharing the same thoughts as me but that is exactly how I see it.    If this were the Vols of the 90's I would say it would not tell us much........but that is not where we are now.

I think that's a barometer game. Struggle with them but win and we are probably looking at another .500 season. Lose and all bets are off. Beat them soundly and maybe we are better than we think.
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« Reply #7 on: August 17, 2011, 11:03:27 EDT »

I don't if you should be scared for sharing the same thoughts as me but that is exactly how I see it.    If this were the Vols of the 90's I would say it would not tell us much........but that is not where we are now.


That just means you are a pretty fart smeller.
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« Reply #8 on: August 18, 2011, 12:54:28 EDT »

Like Revolver, I think we lose to USCe and beat LSU. And as much as I don't want to see UT start a losing streak against The Mouth, it would be great to avenge last year's debacle against The Hat.

I do like our chances against Florida. IMO, that's a tossup and I agree with the rest. I see it being an 8-4 season with a chance at 9-3 if this team is a little better than we think. Florida is the 9th win.

It all hinges on Bray, though...and the front seven staying healthy on defense. If last year's last four games by Bray were fool's gold, we'll be a 7-5 or 6-6 football team.
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« Reply #9 on: August 18, 2011, 01:01:26 EDT »

Of the big games I think our best shots at victory are vs. UF and UGA. No one can convince me that Georgia is going to be that good this year.

Of the remaining tough games, our best shot at victory is LSU, followed by Arky followed by SC followed by bama.

JMO

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« Reply #10 on: August 18, 2011, 04:31:35 EDT »


Nut, I do enjoy reading your stuff and todays is no different than the past. Thanks for the input there. sport!

GreggO   
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« Reply #11 on: August 18, 2011, 02:12:08 EDT »

Of the big games I think our best shots at victory are vs. UF and UGA. No one can convince me that Georgia is going to be that good this year.

Of the remaining tough games, our best shot at victory is LSU, followed by Arky followed by SC followed by bama.

JMO

CW

I flip flop UF and LSU because UF is on the road and LSU is at home.

I sense a letdown at Carolina after they won the East.
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« Reply #12 on: August 18, 2011, 02:14:33 EDT »

I flip flop UF and LSU because UF is on the road and LSU is at home.

I sense a letdown at Carolina after they won the East.


I meant to add that even though I sense a letdown I don't think we beat them at Columbia.
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Volznut
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« Reply #13 on: August 18, 2011, 02:43:24 EDT »



I meant to add that even though I sense a letdown I don't think we beat them at Columbia.

But we play SC in Knoxville.

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« Reply #14 on: August 18, 2011, 04:59:38 EDT »

But we play SC in Knoxville.


My only game I would disagree is the UF game, because it is in hogtown.  Even though I think we will match up well with the crocs, given how young the team is going into the swamp and winning may be too much to expect, especially since this will be the first road game we play.
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« Reply #15 on: August 18, 2011, 05:04:36 EDT »

But we play SC in Knoxville.



So we do and I'm even going to that game... not sure why I brain cramped on that one.

I still don't think we beat them. JMO.
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