Interesting win probabilities from Ken Massey

[Clockwork Orange]

Note that the schedule is in reverse and that any game not yet played has a win probability instead of a result . . . his system basically thinks that South Carolina and UGA are coin tosses but we are slight favorites at home; we have a chance at Arkansas on the road; we should chalk up Alabama and LSU as losses; Vandy, UK, and MTSU are highly likely to be wins. Add up expected values and Massey sees 4.4 more wins . . . so 7-5 or 8-4. That's probably a hair more optimistic than most Vol fans right now.

Code:

Date        Opponent Rk W L Result PF PA
Sat 11/26/11 at Kentucky 86 0 0 88 % 33 17
Sat 11/19/11 Vanderbilt 52 0 0 87 % 31 17
Sat 11/12/11 at Arkansas        11 0 0 37 % 31 34
Sat 11/05/11 Middle Tenn St 135 0 0 99 % 47 16
Sat 10/29/11 South Carolina 15 0 0 56 % 31 28
Sat 10/22/11 at Alabama 1 0 0 4 % 14 38
Sat 10/15/11 LSU 2 0 0 16 % 21 34
Sat 10/08/11 Georgia 19 0 0 57 % 31 28
Sat 10/01/11 Buffalo 131 0 0 W 41 10
Sat 09/17/11 at Florida 10 0 0 L 23 33
Sat 09/10/11 Cincinnati 41 0 0 W 45 23
Sat 09/03/11 Montana 141 0 0 W 42 16

[Clockwork Orange]

Oh man, Massey's site can be fun. There's a little tool where you can see the probability distribution function for the margin, the total points, and each team's points. According to that, the median score for the UT-UGA game is 31-28, UT (as in, there's a 50% chance above and below those scores for each team). I believe he comes up with the distributions via repeated simulations.

Of note:

* He gives us a 20% chance of scoring more than 40 points; UGA has a little under 15% chance of doing the same.
* He gives us a 5% chance of holding UGA to two TDs or less; UGA has a 3% chance of doing this to us.
* He gives us a 29% chance of winning by more than a TD, and UGA a 20% chance. Thus, there is a 51% chance that the game will be decided by a TD or less.

[Clockwork Orange]

Okay, I know the above two posts were dorky and I may be the only one who enjoys that sort of thing . . . but this is a pretty cool function Massey puts on his site as well-- a schedule map:

http://masseyratings.com/map.php?s=107811&t=7801

[Clockwork Orange]

I'll just continue talking to myself to highlight one more feature. I'll just call this the MTWHBYTB (My Team Would Have Beaten Your Team Because) function. I did last year for Tennessee beating Ohio State and got this:

Code:

2010-11-27 @ Tennessee               24    Kentucky                14         
2010-10-16 @ Kentucky                31    South Carolina          28         
2010-10-09 @ South Carolina          35    Alabama                 21         
2011-01-01   Alabama                 49    Michigan St              7  P       Capital One Bowl Orlando FL
2010-10-02 @ Michigan St             34    Wisconsin               24         
2010-10-16 @ Wisconsin               31    Ohio St                 18         

By transitivity, this 6 game path shows that Tennessee dominates Ohio St by 92 points.

 

[PirateVOL]

I'll just continue talking to myself to highlight one more feature. I'll just call this the MTWHBYTB (My Team Would Have Beaten Your Team Because) function. I did last year for Tennessee beating Ohio State and got this:

Code:

2010-11-27 @ Tennessee               24    Kentucky                14         
2010-10-16 @ Kentucky                31    South Carolina          28         
2010-10-09 @ South Carolina          35    Alabama                 21         
2011-01-01   Alabama                 49    Michigan St              7  P       Capital One Bowl Orlando FL
2010-10-02 @ Michigan St             34    Wisconsin               24         
2010-10-16 @ Wisconsin               31    Ohio St                 18         

By transitivity, this 6 game path shows that Tennessee dominates Ohio St by 92 points.

 

You sir, require some serious help ...
I'll check Massey's site when I get home this evening

[BanditVol]

CO...that's very interesting.  Because his calculations for USCe, uga and Arkansas match my subjective impressions of those games based on watching them all play other teams.

I guess I am a dork also, as I find this very interesting.