So I've heard some people say that BGSU may give us a little trouble

[Clockwork Orange]

Some are particularly worried about their offensive prowess. Well, I went and checked out how they did based on two advanced stats: S&P+ and FEI, and according to those stats BGSU was absolutely awful last year and particularly bad in the passing game. The deal is this: they played one of the weakest schedules in he country-- ~120th or so, depending on who you ask-- and lost six games. But it's worse than that.

I'll use Massey ratings here because there's good detail, but Massey's numbers aren't far from the advanced stats I mentioned above.

* BGSU played only 6 games against top 100 teams, and went 1-5, beating only #81 Indiana by three on BGSU's home field.

* They played one game against a top 50 opponent-- Wisconsin-- and lost 68-17.

* Their wins were over #322, #81, #154, #138, #124, #136, #162, and #119 (bowl). They still managed to give up 25 PPG in wins against that awful slate. They scored 37 PPG.

* They lost to #72, #15, #92, #70, #114, and #64, and gave up 45 PPG in their losses. They scored 21 PPG.

Their defense is awful. Their offense and QB are overrated based on one of the weakest possible schedules in the NCAA. If this game is at all close I'll be a little concerned.

Clocky's pick: Vols 51, BGSU 13

[PirateVOL]

Some are particularly worried about their offensive prowess. Well, I went and checked out how they did based on two advanced stats: S&P+ and FEI, and according to those stats BGSU was absolutely awful last year and particularly bad in the passing game. The deal is this: they played one of the weakest schedules in he country-- ~120th or so, depending on who you ask-- and lost six games. But it's worse than that.

I'll use Massey ratings here because there's good detail, but Massey's numbers aren't far from the advanced stats I mentioned above.

* BGSU played only 6 games against top 100 teams, and went 1-5, beating only #81 Indiana by three on BGSU's home field.

* They played one game against a top 50 opponent-- Wisconsin-- and lost 68-17.

* Their wins were over #322, #81, #154, #138, #124, #136, #162, and #119 (bowl). They still managed to give up 25 PPG in wins against that awful slate. They scored 37 PPG.

* They lost to #72, #15, #92, #70, #114, and #64, and gave up 45 PPG in their losses. They scored 21 PPG.

Their defense is awful. Their offense and QB are overrated based on one of the weakest possible schedules in the NCAA. If this game is at all close I'll be a little concerned.

Clocky's pick: Vols 51, BGSU 13

45-20
Only because we play everybody that travels, other than planned red shirts

[VOLMAN]

that we might blow them out and come into OK thinking that the same effort would be good enough....I'm not as concerned after watching some practices and listening to players/coaches, I think Butch will have 'em ready. I saw that Jumper is getting the start at MLB....GOOD FOR HIM, way to work for it walk-on!!!     

[Creek Walker]

A dude on our picks panel in the newspaper actually picked Bowling Green to win. His reasoning? Vols are over-ranked and will be looking ahead to Oklahoma. Needless to say, the rest of us are already making fun of him mercilessly.

[Clockwork Orange]

that we might blow them out and come into OK thinking that the same effort would be good enough....I'm not as concerned after watching some practices and listening to players/coaches, I think Butch will have 'em ready. I saw that Jumper is getting the start at MLB....GOOD FOR HIM, way to work for it walk-on!!!     

Mostly I've been hearing that their offense will give us a test, but what I looked at this morning suggests it won't test anything except our focus.

Yeah, I think it's good that Jumper has stepped up. I think the job is Kirkland's eventually but it is so much better to have a guy that's been around playing ahead of him so Kirkland can be eased in. And even if Kirkland takes the job, Jumper will be playing. Good for him.

[VOLMAN]

part not showing Stoops what the actual starting lineup may look like. I expect to see our D to dominate BG and probably a big lean on the run game with just enough passing to get some good reps in....but hey, what do I know, I'm always much better on Monday mornings.                     

[Clockwork Orange]

part not showing Stoops what the actual starting lineup may look like. I expect to see our D to dominate BG and probably a big lean on the run game with just enough passing to get some good reps in....but hey, what do I know, I'm always much better on Monday mornings.                     

What you expect is what we should hope for, IMO. <20 passes for Dobbs, <10 carries for Dobbs, 10-15 touches each for Hurd and Kamara, and lots of RDA IV, Kelly, and Young.

I hope we get to see some passes from Dormady as well. BGSU is so bad on defense surely we can protect him and get him some good live reps.

[murfvol]

Those are interesting BGSU numbers Clock. I feel better now.

I will quibble with your desired Dobbs carries though. I'd like to see <=3.

[crockettman]

I see a very vanilla game,mostly Hurd running the ball,a couple of big plays by our receivers.It may be a lil close in the 2nd qtr but UT will wear them down with the running game in the 2nd half and the defense will get the job done..I doubt CBJ wants to tip his offensive hand to Stoops a week early.. UT wins 38-10

[Volznut]

58 - 13

BG has a horrible defense.

[EmerilVOL]

WWFDT and I ain't posted that in forever

[BanditVol]

spot on.  this one won't be close