Butch vs. Expectations

[BanditVol]

Consider this bye week filler, but there continues to be a lot of talk about whether Butch has exceeded or under performed what he should be doing at UT.

Although the spread is intended to even out betting and not necessarily predict outcomes, it does reflect pretty accurately what a majority of people think will happen.  So we can look at how Butch has done against the spread.  In all cases I only list games that went against expectations.

2013 - We beat USC jr at +7, but lost to Vandy at -2
2014 - We lost to Florida at -2, and also lost to Missouri at -4, but beat USC jr at +6
2015 - We beat uga at + 1, lost to Arkansas at -6.  I don't know how to count these, but we lost to both OU and Florida at Even.  Split the difference and call it one loss?
2016 - All games have gone as expected

I don't know what the lines were in the bowl games, so I left those out.

Just looking at what team was expected to win, Vols have exceeded expectations once per year excluding this year (three tiems total), and failed to meet expectations 5 times total, once in 2013 and twice each in 2014 and 2015.  Our upsets have been USC jr twice and then uga last year. 

I guess using this as a measure, Butch has slightly underperformed.

Having said that, Vandy was good in 2013 but bettors are slow to change their perceptions, and I am not sure I should count either of the even games from 2014 as a loss (I only counted one).

The only real surprise for me was that we were favored against Mizzou in 2014.  Somehow that doesn't seem right, but it was probably a bettor overeaction to our win at USC jr.

Oh well...something to do on a bye week.   

[volsboy]

I guess it depends on whose expectations you are talking about. Is it fair to compare the UT program to other programs? Look at horseface at UF. He took over 4-8 team and ended up 10-2 and won the East his first year. We seem to struggle with a front loaded schedule then beat up on the bottom of the East, winning the last 5 games. Then we play a BIG team in a bowl that doesn't match up well with us and stomp them. Then us Vol fans get all "we're back" and can't wait for the new season. Then this season starts and we are lucky to escape with a win from Appy. Then we wonder, where is that team that schooled NW? I just don't think this program should be called "back" until it wins an SEC title. We have to start beating the West teams. I guarantee none of us have figured out this years Vols team. 5-2 is still 5-2 and 10-2 is possible. It could be the ugliest, most exciting 10-2 season in history. So let's just set back and enjoy and see what happens.

[BanditVol]

I guess it depends on whose expectations you are talking about. Is it fair to compare the UT program to other programs? Look at horseface at UF. He took over 4-8 team and ended up 10-2 and won the East his first year. We seem to struggle with a front loaded schedule then beat up on the bottom of the East, winning the last 5 games. Then we play a BIG team in a bowl that doesn't match up well with us and stomp them. Then us Vol fans get all "we're back" and can't wait for the new season. Then this season starts and we are lucky to escape with a win from Appy. Then we wonder, where is that team that schooled NW? I just don't think this program should be called "back" until it wins an SEC title. We have to start beating the West teams. I guarantee none of us have figured out this years Vols team. 5-2 is still 5-2 and 10-2 is possible. It could be the ugliest, most exciting 10-2 season in history. So let's just set back and enjoy and see what happens.

Several points here.

One, it's very clear that I used the broadest measure of expectations, the spread. Or I thought it was clear. Hm.

Two, that McElWaink did so well is a function of two things. Muschamp was that bad, and the East is that weak. Also pretty sure the gators were 5 and 7 in 2014, but I'd love to be wrong and that's a minor point.

Third, I don't get all  "we're back". I think you are thinking of yourself and a few other fans. 10 2 is where I expected  to be this year and its where we are.

[Black Diamond Vol]

Several points here.

One, it's very clear that I used the broadest measure of expectations, the spread. Or I thought it was clear. Hm.

Two, that McElWaink did so well is a function of two thins. Muschamp was that bad, and the East is that wesk. Also pretty sure the gators were 5 and 7 in 2014, but I'd love to be wrong and that's a minor point.

Third, I don't get all  "were back". I think ypu are thinking of yourself and a few other fans. 10 2 is where I expected  to be this year and its where we are.

The crocs were actually 7-5 in 2014 (they would've won 8, but had a gimme game canceled due to lightning).  They even won a bowl game.  And in 2015, they started out 6-0 with a juiced-up QB, including 3 close wins (ECU, UK, and UT) that they almost certainly would have lost without him.  The rest of the season they were a very middling football team.  This year, they've only played one team with a pulse, and lost that one decisively (against a team that apparently isn't "back").  So lets see what they do against the meat of their schedule before we crown Donkey as the next Lombardi.

[BanditVol]

The crocs were actually 7-5 in 2014 (they would've won 8, but had a gimme game canceled due to lightning).  They even won a bowl game.  And in 2015, they started out 6-0 with a juiced-up QB, including 3 close wins (ECU, UK, and UT) that they almost certainly would have lost without him.  The rest of the season they were a very middling football team.  This year, they've only played one team with a pulse, and lost that one decisively (against a team that apparently isn't "back").  So lets see what they do against the meat of their schedule before we crown Donkey as the next Lombardi.

Yep.  But I do hope he's just good enough to keep around while we build a huge win streak against them. 

[Creek Walker]

I just don't think this program should be called "back" until it wins an SEC title.

 

Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Arkansas are clearly chumps in the SEC right now since they haven't won a title.

I'd say that team that beat NW showed up against Virginia Tech and Florida, and even Texas A&M, wouldn't you? No, you wouldn't. Never mind. You're still fixated on Appalachian State (a game we won, no less) since that's apparently the only game that matters this season.

[volsboy]

Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Arkansas are clearly chumps in the SEC right now since they haven't won a title.

I'd say that team that beat NW showed up against Virginia Tech and Florida, and even Texas A&M, wouldn't you? No, you wouldn't. Never mind. You're still fixated on Appalachian State (a game we won, no less) since that's apparently the only game that matters this season.

They have been good teams. They have all been 3-5 loss teams. aTm may do better than that this year.  Ain't  every teams goal to win the SEC title. Plus, how would the Vols do playing all those West teams every year? It is a distinct advantage to play in the East. Hopefully, the Vols will make it to Atlanta this year.

[PirateVOL]

They have been good teams. They have all been 3-5 loss teams. aTm may do better than that this year.  Ain't  every teams goal to win the SEC title. Plus, how would the Vols do playing all those West teams every year? It is a distinct advantage to play in the East. Hopefully, the Vols will make it to Atlanta this year.

we are doomed, doomed I tell you

vb professes to actually root for the VOLS