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Author Topic: True or false: Butch's job security is more dependent on...  (Read 1222 times)
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Black Diamond Vol
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« on: July 07, 2017, 08:50:17 EDT »

...holding this recruiting class together than wins and losses.  

After last year, conventional wisdom said that he would have to win X number of games (usually between 7-10, depending on the source) to keep his job.  But I don't think anyone could foresee a class like this.  After two somewhat "down" years (at least compared to his first two), Butch and his staff are now red hot on the recruiting trail once again.  As of today, our class ranks #3 in America, and #1 in the SEC.  

Now, I realize that if we have a disastrous season (4 wins or less), nothing is going to save him.  But let's say he wins 5-6 this year, holds this class together, and maybe adds a few bluechippers to finish in the top 5.  Does he keep his job?

The new early signing period (12/20-12/22) may have a huge impact- not just on Butch, but on ALL coaches on the hot seat.  Whereas before, most coaches would be fired immediately after the season ends (if not before), you may now see a lot of schools hold off until they see what the early NSD brings.
« Last Edit: July 07, 2017, 08:59:59 EDT by Black Diamond Vol » Logged

Creek Walker
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« Reply #1 on: July 07, 2017, 08:58:06 EDT »

The early signing period is going to make a difference. Schools can afford to wait until late December to pull the plug on a coaching change.

With regard to the question, though: Butch's ability to hold this recruiting class together may be largely dependent on his ability to win more than 5-6 games this season.

I firmly believe that the season opener in Atlanta is the single most important game of Butch's career. He's had bigger losses, and obviously he's had far bigger wins (this is one of those little to gain, lots to lose games, imo), but a loss to GaTech is going to be hard to recover from. If he loses to GaTech, the game in Gainesville becomes an absolute must-win, and must-win games are far rarer than most fans like to believe. We could beat GaTech and still have an unacceptable season, but it's hard to imagine a scenario in which we recover from a GaTech loss to have an acceptable season.
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Creek Walker
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« Reply #2 on: July 07, 2017, 09:00:19 EDT »

While we can all agree that Alabama and Florida are going to recover, and there will be lots of other movement in the rankings as well, when is the last time we entered July with UT sitting atop the SEC recruiting rankings?
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Black Diamond Vol
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« Reply #3 on: July 07, 2017, 09:04:59 EDT »

While we can all agree that Alabama and Florida are going to recover, and there will be lots of other movement in the rankings as well, when is the last time we entered July with UT sitting atop the SEC recruiting rankings?

Probably at least the early 2000's, if not before.  I'm not even sure that Rivals/Scout/247 existed when it happened last.
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« Reply #4 on: July 08, 2017, 04:06:30 EDT »

I personally don't think Ga.Tech. is going to be a problem.  I feel QD will light up the yellow jackets on Labor Day night. 
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Black Diamond Vol
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« Reply #5 on: July 08, 2017, 04:33:28 EDT »

If it were up to me, I'd never schedule a game against someone with a quirky offense like GT.  But if you have to play one, it's best to do so in the first game, so you have more time to prepare.  Playing them in midseason is not only inviting an upset, it's also risking injury (see UT vs. Air Force, 2006).
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« Reply #6 on: July 08, 2017, 09:04:22 EDT »

False.  He needs to win, and he needs to be sure there are no more South Carolinas or Vandys. 



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« Reply #7 on: July 08, 2017, 11:55:09 EDT »

Put me in this column.   Losing to losers is unacceptable.

False.  He needs to win, and he needs to be sure there are no more South Carolinas or Vandys. 




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« Reply #8 on: July 11, 2017, 03:44:41 EDT »

While an opening season loss to Ga Tech will be bad and put the team in a hole for at least the start of the season, in no way can it be compared to the close call we had against Appalachian State last year.  That would have been a loss, at home, against a lower division team.  A loss to Georgia Tech would be a loss to a D1 team which actually has tradition (5 or 6 SEC titles from way back and an MNC from 1990), manages to be good occasionally, and is actually at a "neutral site" that happens to be their home town.

And to think, we likely lose that game last year if Jalen Hurd had not fell on the ball in the end zone near the end of the game.     For all of whatever he did later or even the whole time he was at UT that was negative, at least he gave us that.  A loss there would have been epic, considering the expectations we had last year (favored to win the East by most).

I expect us to beat Ga Tech and will be disappointed if we don't.  But it will not be the end of the world.
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« Reply #9 on: July 11, 2017, 04:13:57 EDT »

We need the win. Do we technically have to have it? No. That having been said, Butch hasn't banked any good will by exceeding expectations for a season yet. Despite losing Dobbs, Malone, and Barnett, this is the most talented team he's had.

Credit him for that, but he needs to finish in the top 20. Losing to GT makes that tough.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2017, 09:46:39 EDT by murfvol » Logged

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« Reply #10 on: July 11, 2017, 05:42:26 EDT »

While an opening season loss to Ga Tech will be bad and put the team in a hole for at least the start of the season, in no way can it be compared to the close call we had against Appalachian State last year.  That would have been a loss, at home, against a lower division team.  A loss to Georgia Tech would be a loss to a D1 team which actually has tradition (5 or 6 SEC titles from way back and an MNC from 1990), manages to be good occasionally, and is actually at a "neutral site" that happens to be their home town.

And to think, we likely lose that game last year if Jalen Hurd had not fell on the ball in the end zone near the end of the game.     For all of whatever he did later or even the whole time he was at UT that was negative, at least he gave us that.  A loss there would have been epic, considering the expectations we had last year (favored to win the East by most).

I expect us to beat Ga Tech and will be disappointed if we don't.  But it will not be the end of the world.

To that end, you could've also said that the Ohio game, or the Tennessee Tech game, were must-wins. Or that the Indiana State or UMass games this year are must-wins. They are, of course. But, like Appalachian State, those are games that shouldn't really be very close. (Although Appalachian State is not a lower division team.) Georgia Tech is more or less a toss-up game on paper.

A loss to Appalachian State would have derailed last season. As it turned out, we lost to Vanderbilt and failed to win the East anyway. Surviving Appalachian State allowed us the excitement of those first few weeks of the season that we otherwise wouldn't have had, but at the end of the day, would an Appalachian State loss have been any different than the Vanderbilt loss? Not really.

The difference is that Butch had some equity last season. There wasn't much that could have gotten him canned last year -- not even losing to Appalachian State, as long as he had managed to still get to .500 and earn a bowl bid. But when he lost to South Carolina and Vanderbilt, and failed to win the East, he spent most of that equity. The equity isn't there this season.

Obviously if Tennessee loses to Georgia Tech and recovers to beat Florida and Georgia, the Georgia Tech loss won't matter much. The question is whether Tennessee can recover to win those big SEC games after a disheartening loss to Georgia Tech. I think the answer is no. I think a loss to Georgia Tech derails the season just as it is beginning. Which would mean that a loss to Georgia Tech assures that Butch will be job-hunting by December.
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« Reply #11 on: July 11, 2017, 06:06:33 EDT »

To that end, you could've also said that the Ohio game, or the Tennessee Tech game, were must-wins. Or that the Indiana State or UMass games this year are must-wins. They are, of course. But, like Appalachian State, those are games that shouldn't really be very close. (Although Appalachian State is not a lower division team.) Georgia Tech is more or less a toss-up game on paper.

A loss to Appalachian State would have derailed last season. As it turned out, we lost to Vanderbilt and failed to win the East anyway. Surviving Appalachian State allowed us the excitement of those first few weeks of the season that we otherwise wouldn't have had, but at the end of the day, would an Appalachian State loss have been any different than the Vanderbilt loss? Not really.

The difference is that Butch had some equity last season. There wasn't much that could have gotten him canned last year -- not even losing to Appalachian State, as long as he had managed to still get to .500 and earn a bowl bid. But when he lost to South Carolina and Vanderbilt, and failed to win the East, he spent most of that equity. The equity isn't there this season.

Obviously if Tennessee loses to Georgia Tech and recovers to beat Florida and Georgia, the Georgia Tech loss won't matter much. The question is whether Tennessee can recover to win those big SEC games after a disheartening loss to Georgia Tech. I think the answer is no. I think a loss to Georgia Tech derails the season just as it is beginning. Which would mean that a loss to Georgia Tech assures that Butch will be job-hunting by December.
I would disagree only to the point that an opening game win or loss is not indicative of a season - see last year as but one example
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BanditVol
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« Reply #12 on: July 12, 2017, 02:56:28 EDT »

To that end, you could've also said that the Ohio game, or the Tennessee Tech game, were must-wins. Or that the Indiana State or UMass games this year are must-wins. They are, of course. But, like Appalachian State, those are games that shouldn't really be very close. (Although Appalachian State is not a lower division team.) Georgia Tech is more or less a toss-up game on paper.

A loss to Appalachian State would have derailed last season. As it turned out, we lost to Vanderbilt and failed to win the East anyway. Surviving Appalachian State allowed us the excitement of those first few weeks of the season that we otherwise wouldn't have had, but at the end of the day, would an Appalachian State loss have been any different than the Vanderbilt loss? Not really.

The difference is that Butch had some equity last season. There wasn't much that could have gotten him canned last year -- not even losing to Appalachian State, as long as he had managed to still get to .500 and earn a bowl bid. But when he lost to South Carolina and Vanderbilt, and failed to win the East, he spent most of that equity. The equity isn't there this season.

Obviously if Tennessee loses to Georgia Tech and recovers to beat Florida and Georgia, the Georgia Tech loss won't matter much. The question is whether Tennessee can recover to win those big SEC games after a disheartening loss to Georgia Tech. I think the answer is no. I think a loss to Georgia Tech derails the season just as it is beginning. Which would mean that a loss to Georgia Tech assures that Butch will be job-hunting by December.

I' never used the term "must win", and I'm not talking about "must wins", I am talking about bad losses.  A loss to Georgia Tech would not be the worst we could do next season, there are plenty of others that could be worse.  And the fact that it's the first game also doesn't matter. OSU famously lost to a weak VaTehch a few years back but still notched an MNC.

Your last paragraph is particularly negative, but the overall thrust and tone of this entire line from you is nothing new.  You have made it clear multiple times in the past that you don't care for Butch and are ready to move on, so you constantly inflate expectations to set him up to fail.  Basically a moderate version of Volsboy. 
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« Reply #13 on: July 12, 2017, 05:59:23 EDT »

I' never used the term "must win", and I'm not talking about "must wins", I am talking about bad losses.  A loss to Georgia Tech would not be the worst we could do next season, there are plenty of others that could be worse.  And the fact that it's the first game also doesn't matter. OSU famously lost to a weak VaTehch a few years back but still notched an MNC.

Your last paragraph is particularly negative, but the overall thrust and tone of this entire line from you is nothing new.  You have made it clear multiple times in the past that you don't care for Butch and are ready to move on, so you constantly inflate expectations to set him up to fail.  Basically a moderate version of Volsboy. 

You want to place a wager on it? If Tennessee loses to Georgia Tech, Butch Jones isn't the coach here in 2018. Do you want to bet on that, or would you rather just act all butthurt every time someone disagrees with you?

It's impossible to have a real football conversation on this forum anymore because of your nonsense.
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« Reply #14 on: July 12, 2017, 08:44:03 EDT »

I' never used the term "must win", and I'm not talking about "must wins", I am talking about bad losses.  A loss to Georgia Tech would not be the worst we could do next season, there are plenty of others that could be worse.  And the fact that it's the first game also doesn't matter. OSU famously lost to a weak VaTehch a few years back but still notched an MNC.

Your last paragraph is particularly negative, but the overall thrust and tone of this entire line from you is nothing new.  You have made it clear multiple times in the past that you don't care for Butch and are ready to move on, so you constantly inflate expectations to set him up to fail.  Basically a moderate version of Volsboy. 
I resemble that remark. Contrary to popular belief, I do not hate Butch. I hope he has unbelievable success. But I ain't holding my breath. He has not been overwhelming in the results department with all the talent he has recruited up to now. I hope this season changes all of that. If the talent he has recruited so far is as good as it is supposed to be, why shouldn't he be expected to win 9-10 regular season games. Why should winning 7 mean job security? With his recruits, 7-8 wins should be automatic. Which unfortunately is what I think his ceiling will be until he proves otherwise. I think no losses to any SEC East opponents is not too much to ask. The East is not the gauntlet it used to be.
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« Reply #15 on: July 13, 2017, 01:16:11 EDT »

You want to place a wager on it? If Tennessee loses to Georgia Tech, Butch Jones isn't the coach here in 2018. Do you want to bet on that, or would you rather just act all butthurt every time someone disagrees with you?

It's impossible to have a real football conversation on this forum anymore because of your nonsense.

LOL!  Both ridiculous statements.  Lots of people disagree with me and i have no issues with them.  I'm just pointing out that you have an admitted anti-Jones bias.  I note that you do not deny this.

I honestly could give a rat's ass about Jones as a coach (as a person, I accord him the basic respect I would give any human being).  I want what's best for our program.  Along those lines, running around on message boards trying to inflate expectations so that Jones will disappoint people is not good for our program.

What is good is hoping we have a really good season as a stepping stone to an even better one next year, which is what I am doing.  I could give a rat's ass who the coach is, actually, and I certainly am not going to be .... since you used the term .... "butt hurt" over some stupid shizzle he said in a presser.  Just don't GAS about that.

Just win baby...

As for your proposed bet, I don't quite understand it.  Are you saying that you are willing to bet me that the Vols lose to Georgia Tech, AND Butch is fired?  That's two things.  You're going to have to explain a bit better what you mean.

But for the record, I never bet on the Vols winning or losing, it's a superstitious thing with me to some extent, but also a really old annoyance of a Vol friend who used to take the Vols with a big spread and then b*tch the entire game when they didn't cover.  Nothing like sitting next to someone complaining about a win!





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« Reply #16 on: July 13, 2017, 01:23:38 EDT »

I resemble that remark. Contrary to popular belief, I do not hate Butch. I hope he has unbelievable success. But I ain't holding my breath. He has not been overwhelming in the results department with all the talent he has recruited up to now. I hope this season changes all of that. If the talent he has recruited so far is as good as it is supposed to be, why shouldn't he be expected to win 9-10 regular season games. Why should winning 7 mean job security? With his recruits, 7-8 wins should be automatic. Which unfortunately is what I think his ceiling will be until he proves otherwise. I think no losses to any SEC East opponents is not too much to ask. The East is not the gauntlet it used to be.

I have been a bit more patient with Butch than I might have been, simply because Dooley left us so low.  You mention winning 9 regular season games (although I am absolutely certain that had Butch won 9 last year you would bump that up to 10  ).   I didn't expect that level of success until this past season, and we almost achieved it against a really tough schedule.  It takes time to rebuild a program left in shambles, and while 8 win seasons (i note that you only credit him with 7 ... again very typical of you) are much, much better than 5 win seasons, and for now I am satisfied with that.

If on the way to being excellent, your program goes through a "good" phase, in the end does it matter?  And BTW, I am not even calling what we have "good", so let me say that if in order to be excellent you must be good, but if you become mediocre prior to being good, and still ultimately achieve excellent, again who cares?

Where Dooley left us was not even "bad" it was godawful.  Under Butch, we improved from godawful to bad our first year, became mediocre our second year, and in years 3 and 4 flirted with good but are still closer to mediocre. 

7 wins this year is acceptable to me because this is a big rebuilding year.  Next year it won't be acceptable.
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« Reply #17 on: July 13, 2017, 01:40:43 EDT »

Our saving grace...I hope, is Butch has upgraded his staff. It's time our staff finds ways to a win a couple of games we should win instead of losing a couple we shouldn't. That's the difference in championship teams and middle of the road teams.
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« Reply #18 on: July 13, 2017, 01:57:19 EDT »

Our saving grace...I hope, is Butch has upgraded his staff. It's time our staff finds ways to a win a couple of games we should win instead of losing a couple we shouldn't. That's the difference in championship teams and middle of the road teams.
Perhaps orange colored glasses but Butch seems to have changed since hiring the new staff.  It was said during Spring practice that he was far quieter.  His remarks at media days for the most part were cliche free (though "individual" seemed to a popular one. 

I like the new staff, definite upgrade IMO.
Only concerns?
Scott is new to being an OC but he did well when he was the acting HC at thugU and has demonstrated excellent organizational skills.  Play calling, I think he will be OK.  We as a fan base will question it but hell we questioned Cut when he was OC (great quote by Ward:"Why not run it every time!" after a Graham TD against bamer).

The only real concern, due to inexperience is Beard
Hoke - Upgrade
Warren - Huge Upgrade
Canales - Upgrade
Wells - Upgrade in recruiting, probable upgrade in OL coaching
Rock - Upgrade, possibly huge one
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« Reply #19 on: July 13, 2017, 02:09:05 EDT »

Perhaps orange colored glasses but Butch seems to have changed since hiring the new staff.  It was said during Spring practice that he was far quieter.  His remarks at media days for the most part were cliche free (though "individual" seemed to a popular one. 

I like the new staff, definite upgrade IMO.
Only concerns?
Scott is new to being an OC but he did well when he was the acting HC at thugU and has demonstrated excellent organizational skills.  Play calling, I think he will be OK.  We as a fan base will question it but hell we questioned Cut when he was OC (great quote by Ward:"Why not run it every time!" after a Graham TD against bamer).

The only real concern, due to inexperience is Beard
Hoke - Upgrade
Warren - Huge Upgrade
Canales - Upgrade
Wells - Upgrade in recruiting, probable upgrade in OL coaching
Rock - Upgrade, possibly huge one

Agree with you 100%. And you are correct about Butch being more subdued.....Less microphone on the practice field and this past Spring game. Not sure if he toned it down or was told to tone it down. Either way he needed to do so.
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« Reply #20 on: July 14, 2017, 12:01:44 EDT »

I have been a bit more patient with Butch than I might have been, simply because Dooley left us so low.  You mention winning 9 regular season games (although I am absolutely certain that had Butch won 9 last year you would bump that up to 10  ).   I didn't expect that level of success until this past season, and we almost achieved it against a really tough schedule.  It takes time to rebuild a program left in shambles, and while 8 win seasons (i note that you only credit him with 7 ... again very typical of you) are much, much better than 5 win seasons, and for now I am satisfied with that.

If on the way to being excellent, your program goes through a "good" phase, in the end does it matter?  And BTW, I am not even calling what we have "good", so let me say that if in order to be excellent you must be good, but if you become mediocre prior to being good, and still ultimately achieve excellent, again who cares?

Where Dooley left us was not even "bad" it was godawful.  Under Butch, we improved from godawful to bad our first year, became mediocre our second year, and in years 3 and 4 flirted with good but are still closer to mediocre. 

7 wins this year is acceptable to me because this is a big rebuilding year.  Next year it won't be acceptable.
What do yu think about this? Is Finebaum right? Not that his opinion means crap.
https://www.rockytoptalk.com/2017/7/12/15961638/tennessee-football-finebaum-butch-jones-lowering-expectations-sec-media-days
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« Reply #21 on: July 14, 2017, 05:18:34 EDT »


I don't like Finebaum as a general rule but I thought that line was almost a perfect summation of Butch Jones' thought process. He's blowing smoke up everyone's arse with silly statements just like that (mediocrity may have been fine at Central Michigan and Cincinnati but at Tennessee, it's ALWAYS a disappointing season when you lose to Vanderbilt) and some fans seem more than happy to give him a free pass. Sure, Jones has improved the program...mostly through recruiting. We aren't so much beating teams as out-talenting them right now. That was fine for years 1-3, but now it's time to see real improvement. Last year was an opportunity to do that, and he fell flat on his face. So, yes, put me in the same boat with Terry Lambert. I thought Finebaum hit the nail on the head.

I hope Butch wins the SEC this year and proves me wrong. I'll be shocked if we exceed expectations, or even meet them, however.
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« Reply #22 on: July 21, 2017, 04:49:28 EDT »


I like the new staff, definite upgrade IMO.
Only concerns?
Scott is new to being an OC but he did well when he was the acting HC at thugU and has demonstrated excellent organizational skills.  Play calling, I think he will be OK.  We as a fan base will question it but hell we questioned Cut when he was OC (great quote by Ward:"Why not run it every time!" after a Graham TD against bamer).



DeBord led us to our second best offensive year ever statistically last year and was still widely questioned.  I could say a lot about that, but it speaks for itself really.

I will say this.  At the Music City Bowl, a "Vol fan" about 20 seats to my left and a couple rows down was confronted, along with the folks in front of him, who apparently complained, by an usher. I had noticed a lot of profanity from that direction, but didn't really pay attention, but the usher appeared during a lull or commercial break, and as I watched, I distinctly heard him say "Well your stories are different and I really don't know what happened, but I do know that if I hear any more profanity I am going to start throwing people out".  As he said this, he was speaking to the aforementioned "Vol fan" who was (sadly I have to say, as he disgraced the colors) old military jacket of some sort.

Well...things piped down for a long time.  But at the start of the 4th, folks started to file out, and the couple he had an issue with joined them, and the usher was no where in sight, our drunk "Vol fan" friend started back up with the swearing in as loud a voice as he could muster.

At one point midway through the 4th, we ran up the middle for a 1 or 2 yard gain, and this "fan" turned to his two friends (a couple...I am surpised he had any friends!) and shouted "what did I tell you about that a--hole Debord! He f---ing sucks!)  As he did so, he nearly fell over forward and I noticed that his belt was not cinched, and he was, quite literally showing about the top third of his arse.

Never mind that we scored 38 points and rolled up 521 yards, "DeBord sucks" yells my drunken "vol fan" "friend" so it must be true!  Best of all, it was literally our highest scoring season EVER!  I am not making that up!

https://www.seccountry.com/tennessee/music-city-bowl-numbers-stats-josh-dobbs


Sooo...it took a long time to get to the punch line, but now, I finally can put a drunken face (arse actually  ) along with all the stupid, and yes, very ignorant, comments I see Vol fans make on message boards.  L. M. A. O.   
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