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Author Topic: Now this is an insightful tweet  (Read 343 times)
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Black Diamond Vol
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« on: December 02, 2017, 04:36:39 EST »

https://twitter.com/Sean__Reed/status/936959654713872384
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RockinGrannyVol
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« Reply #1 on: December 02, 2017, 04:39:29 EST »

My point exactly about Tee.. there have been lots of successful OC/DC to HC guys! 

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73Volgrad
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« Reply #2 on: December 02, 2017, 04:58:25 EST »

And there are more failed transitions than successful ones IMO. It is always a roll of the dice. Just how big a risk are you willing to take because most transitions take a while and some require new schools. I am just glad I do not have to make this call. And I hope Fulmer can pick a better head coach than he was at picking assistants in the 2000s.

So if Tee does not win the SEC his 2nd year here, how many will be declaring him a failure and clamoring for a new HC?
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Black Diamond Vol
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« Reply #3 on: December 02, 2017, 05:04:42 EST »


So if Tee does not win the SEC his 2nd year here, how many will be declaring him a failure and clamoring for a new HC?

This guy , and maybe a few other extreme outliers.  But I think most of us would give him at least 4-5 years. 
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BanditVol
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« Reply #4 on: December 02, 2017, 05:47:33 EST »

And there are more failed transitions than successful ones IMO. It is always a roll of the dice. Just how big a risk are you willing to take because most transitions take a while and some require new schools. I am just glad I do not have to make this call. And I hope Fulmer can pick a better head coach than he was at picking assistants in the 2000s.

So if Tee does not win the SEC his 2nd year here, how many will be declaring him a failure and clamoring for a new HC?

There have been more failed coaching changes, period.  what are the chances of a coach succeeding in the SEC?  Well, you have to define success. 

If that's lasting more than 5 years only two current SEC coaches meet that criteria.  Saban and Mike Stoops.  Mike Stoops is only a success at Kentucky which might not count, but still 1 in 7.

If it's winning an SEC championship then in the last 5 years that only applies to Saban and Malzahn, which would be 1 in 7 again.

If it's winning an NC then it only applies to Saban.  I think we can agree that's probably too high a standard.

If it's winning 10 games at least once, then it's Saban, Malzahn,  McIlliwain, Richt, Miles, Freeze, Sumlin, Pinkel, Mullen, and Spurrier.

That's a large crowd, but Sulin and McIllwain, Sumlin and Miles were fired for underperformance, Freeze was let go for impropriety and Spurrier quit on his own but obvioulsy could have stayed. Pinkel quit for health reasons.  I am not sure if Richt was fired or if it was mutual.  Mullen left for a better job.

So even with that very forgiving criteria, in the last five years only Saban, Malzahn, Mullen, Pinkel, and Spurrier have been sucesses if you count not getting fired, and Richt might or might not be int hat groupl.  That's either 2/7 or 5/14, however you want to slice it.

Bottom line: Statistically the next coach is likely to be a failure by today's high standards.

Which is why all the mouth breathers calling for Fulmer's dismissal in 2008 really should have thought it out a bit more and done the trade.  Said trade being "how likely is it that a coaching change will lead to an improvement?".

A coaching change is a bit of a crap shoot at the end of the day.

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RockinGrannyVol
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« Reply #5 on: December 03, 2017, 03:05:13 EST »

This guy , and maybe a few other extreme outliers.  But I think most of us would give him at least 4-5 years.
This

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This!!
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volsboy
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« Reply #6 on: December 05, 2017, 07:37:18 EST »

Well the new guy only has to win 1 conference game to be improved. The bar is pretty low. Sad thing is, Smart has UGa back at the top of the East. With the talent he's bringing in, plus the really good young QB's, it is going to take some doing to knock them off the top rung in the East. I just go by the money the new coach will make. He should be expected to produce. He should be expected to finish ahead of Vandy, UK, Mizzu and maybe USCe for starters.
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volsboyinsodak
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« Reply #7 on: December 05, 2017, 07:59:12 EST »

Well the new guy only has to win 1 conference game to be improved. The bar is pretty low. Sad thing is, Smart has UGa back at the top of the East. With the talent he's bringing in, plus the really good young QB's, it is going to take some doing to knock them off the top rung in the East. I just go by the money the new coach will make. He should be expected to produce. He should be expected to finish ahead of Vandy, UK, Mizzu and maybe USCe for starters.

Relax. Smart was dominated bt Mslzshn. Credit due for rematch but Auburn beat up from bammer game and without Kerrion Johnsob full speed. Theur D finslly wore out late the game and Kerrion injury killed offense.

Ill wait and see how uga does in playoffs and the next season or two.

It looked like Malzahn was going to challenge Saban but then he had three mediocre seasons.

Its still too early to say how Smart will do long term. I agree that its looking good for uga, but one season means nothing in the long run
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