To be honest, we have one OOC opponent with a pulse this season: BYU. Yes, UAB went 11-3 and won CUSA last year, but they also lost just about every notable player who had a role on that team. ,
so I would expect them to be improved, but they shouldn't be able to come to Knoxville and get a win.
I disagree about the losses. They have 5 starters back on defense, and although they only have 3 full season starters back on offense, at the key position of QB they additionally have a guy who replaced the senior starter last year at mid-season. So that's plenty coming back. Should they be down a notch? Yes, I think so, but like you point out they have a very good coach so it's hard to predict. But as for the second part, I agree with you. We should beat them, particularly since we play them in November and you would think our lines will have gelled by then. As I am sure you and everyone else knows, we are rebuilding both lines.
I'm going to throw out an unpopular opinion: If Tennessee doesn't go 8-4 this season, Jeremy Pruitt won't be the coach here in another 3-4 years. I'm not saying we will go 8-4; I'm still not sold on Pruitt as a coach.
Aw, come on. That's quite a prediction based on one season. I am going to disagree for two very important reasons. Offensive line and defensive line. Both are doing almost a complete rebuild this year. You can't win without lines. Switzer was quoted before the super bowl he won as saying "you [the media] know it all comes down to how the lines play anyway". Neyland said that "touchdowns follow blocking like night follows day", and I think Lombardi had some quote along those lines but I can't recall it at the moment. Thus I am okay with 7-5, but if we had a semblance of an OL and the DL was not reloading I would probably be more optimistic. 2020 will be a different matter. We had the top OL class in the country this year and have signed many blue chip DLs as well. If Pruitt can't develop that into wins next season, then I will definitely be off the bandwagon. This year is still too soon.
There were some promising moments last season but the way it ended left a sour taste in my mouth. Yeah, I know the narrative is that a bunch of Butch Jones' players quit on him at the end...but back in 2011 when Dooley lost his team at the end we said the same thing...players' fault. It wound up not being the players but the coach.
I think it left a sour taste in everyone's mouth. What I fear is that maybe some of the players didn't want to go to a bowl and tanked it, which was widely and credibly rumored to be the cause of our otherwise inexplicable loss to UK in 2010, the one that undoubtedly cost Dooley his job even though it took another year to play out. And yes, I am familiar with the narrative and was one of the ones that helped start it,but that's what I hope, not what I believe. I am going to be watching very closely at the end of this season. Another collapse and Pruitt's seat will be quite hot next season.
Is 8 wins an unfair expectation for a program that is being completely retooled? I don't think so. The schedule is as favorable as it will ever get. Four OOC wins should be a virtual lock. We only have to go .500 in SEC play to get to 8 wins. We'll throw out Alabama and Georgia, for obvious reasons. If we go ahead and throw out Florida since that game is in Gainesville, Pruitt has to win 4 of his remaining 5 to get to that .500 mark. But let's not kid ourselves. The remaining games (Mississippi State, South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky and Vanderbilt) is hardly a juggernaut.
No, I don't think 8-4 is unreasonable at all, it's just not what I think. And again,it comes down to the lines for me. I simply have a hard time thinking we will be that much better than last year with both lines being almost completely new. Also, of the four teams you lump together there is quite a bit about them that is unpredictable to me. Start with the biggest enigma, MSU. With a big chunk of their defense and their starting QB gone, expectations are that they will be a lot worse and the game is in Neyland so we should win. And furthermore from what I saw last year, their coach, while not terrible, is a step down from Mullen and was IMO winning with Mullen's players, a lot of which are gone now. But it's just too unpredictable. Maybe they are better off without their old QB, who depended on Mullen to get him to play well, and maybe this new coach is better than I think and the losses are less than anyone thinks. Then take Junior. By all rights we should have beaten them at least once or twice in the last 3 years, but we didn't even though it was really close. So I want to think this is finally the year, in Neyland, but I have thought that the last 3 years in a row and it didn't happen, so I refuse to predict a victory in that one. And I have similar thoughts about Mizzou, which is on the road. They are like a combination. If Bryant had not transferred there, I would feel more confident. But they showed last year that they are a solid team and even though they lost quite a few players, it's going to be a tough game up there in November. Hopefully our lines will have gelled by then, but that one is a tough sell for me. Vandy is probably the second easiest opponent of the group, but I've also been burned thinking we would beat them. We "should" beat them with a new QB and the game being in Neyland, but I have to hold my nose and admit that Mason has built that program into one that routinely makes a lower tier bowl. I do think we should beat them though. Vandy will be a key test for Pruitt. If it's anything like last season, his seat will be very hot going into the offseason. Kentucky I think we can handle, they lost as much as any team in the nation in both numbers and quality (all 4 DBs gone and three of them to the NFL along with their DE/LB that went in the first round, not to mention one of the best RBs they've ever had). I am a bit worried that it's in Lexington, but not really. What I think we could do is take 3/5 of these, but it won't be easy IMO.
The SEC isn't as strong right now as it was a few years ago. And if Pruitt is the man to lead this program back to where we all think it should be, he's going to take a significant step forward. Recruiting is lackluster right now, despite what we all thought was an exceptionally good staff of recruiters. Going 6-6 or even 7-5 isn't going to do much to jumpstart it. We have got to beat someone we're not supposed to beat, do something to turn some heads and get this thing jump-started.
I don't completely disagree, but again I come back to the lines. And I think recruiting will be fine. Pruitt hasn't excelled but he has recruited well enough to win some games in the SEC IMO. Most important to me he seems to recruit well to our needs, which Jones sucked at. I do agree that recruiting needs to improve, but it doesn't have that far to go IMO.
