Here are the Ken Pom stats:
https://kenpom.com/ Strength of Schedule
Rank/Team Conf W-L AdjEM AdjO AdjD AdjT Luck AdjEM OppO OppD11 Tennessee SEC 26-8 +22.77 114.8 39 92.0 5 66.2 271 +.036 86 +11.33 6 111.6 8 100.3 14
37 Missouri SEC 20-12 +15.56 113.2 51 97.6 47 65.7 297 -.021 235 +9.60 30 109.9 40 100.3 15
38 Kansas St. B12 23-11 +15.52 112.0 60 96.5 34 65.5 305 +.060 52 +9.52 32 111.4 11 101.9 58
39 Miami FL ACC 22-10 +15.46 112.9 55 97.5 45 67.0 231 +.017 128 +8.23 47 109.4 47 101.2 43
40 Loyola Chi MVC 29-5 +15.28 111.2 69 95.9 28 65.3 315 +.066 35 +0.47 133 103.8 215 103.3 85
One very big thing jumps out. We have the 6th toughest schedule, while they are 133. So which season has better prepared the team? Same point about strenght of Opp Offense and Defense (see far right). Put it this way, our Adjust D rating is 5th in the country, and they on average have faced the 85th best D.
I left some of the other teams in, because they are of interest. Note that they are right next to Miami, so I guess the close game is no surprise. And look how close their numbers are to Missouri.
I know we lost a close game to Mizzou on the road, but that was a long time ago, and this is a neutral site. we also lost a close game to Ark on the road, and look how that one turned out on a neutral site.
I know Arkansas was tired out from 3 straight games, but even there, Loyola had a much tougher first game.
We are favored and we should be.