We are 75th in RPI which is not good

[BanditVol]

RPI ratings here:

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/polls?poll=5


According to the ESPN Bubble blog, no team lower than 75 has made it as an at-large in 15 years:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

… there are some RPI trends from the past decade and a half (courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information) that tend to suggest that a team's sheer RPI figure does, in fact, matter. In the past 15 seasons, no team with an RPI of 75 or worse has qualified for the NCAA tournament as an at-large. Only seven teams with RPI numbers of 63 or above -- including one of 2011's last four teams (USC) in an expanded 68-team field -- have heard the call.

The quote is confusingly worded, but I think what he's saying is that in the last 15 years only 7 teams lower than 63rd in the RPI ratings have made the tourney as an at-large, and the lowest of those was 75th.

So I guess not all is lost....we happen to be currently tied with the lowest RPI team ever to make the tourney as an at-large, so this at least tells us it's not impossible.  And you have to think our chances are slightly better with the 68-team field, since that only accounts for a couple years of the 15 the stats are based on.

Still that's not very encouraging.  It says at first glance that in any given year, it's only about 50-50 that a team with an RPI lower than 63 is going to make it as an at-large.  I do not like those odds.

I guess it's a question of how much we  can improve in RPI with at least two wins in the tourney.

[Black Diamond Vol]

I don't think anyone has us in the field at this point- even Katz and Anthony and other national guys trumpeting our cause concede that we still have work to do.  If our bracket goes straight chalk (and it almost never does in the SECT), we'll get another game against Vandy in the semis.  As great as it would be to see them upset, I think we need to play and beat the highest RPI teams possible, so we need to root for them to win their first game.  I think we can take them again- away from Memorial, they're nothing special. 

Even if our RPI is low, I hope the committee will take into consideration our change in personnel, i.e. the addition of Stokes to the starting lineup.  Maybe teams with our RPI normally don't get in, but there are definitely extenuating circumstances in our case. 

[BanditVol]

Here is the formula for RPI:

RPI = (WP * 0.25) + (OWP * 0.50) + (OOWP * 0.25)

where WP is Winning Percentage, OWP is Opponents' Winning Percentage and OOWP is Opponents' Opponents' Winning Percentage.


Assuming we win two tourney games, the first part of that gives us a 0.0064 improvement.

Best case scenario for RPI is that we play Ole Miss and then Vandy. If I assume that the rest of the rating is evenly distributed between OWP and OOWP, I can estimate the second part of the formula above as improving about 0.0026.

For the third part of the formula, Vandy has the 6th toughest schedule and Ole Miss ranks 36th.  I don't know how to put a number on that though, but using the 6th and 36th rated teams win % in RPI gives a rough idea, and the improvement ends up being 0.0036.

The total improvment is then 0.0126, which makes our RPI rank about 58-59, which might be just good enough to slip in.  (Let me add that I am assuming that the changes in teams below us and above us cancel out, which might not be true).

Now the thing I leave out is our last game against UK.  Just PLAYING UK will be a huge improvement, because UK has the best win percentage in the country and that's half the formula.  In other words, even if we beat Ole Miss, Vandy and then lose to UK, our RPI from the UK game will go up a bit, which hopefully cancels any inaccuracies in my calculations.

Of course, if we BEAT UK, it's all a moot point.  

[Black Diamond Vol]

Here is the formula for RPI:

RPI = (WP * 0.25) + (OWP * 0.50) + (OOWP * 0.25)

where WP is Winning Percentage, OWP is Opponents' Winning Percentage and OOWP is Opponents' Opponents' Winning Percentage.


Assuming we win two tourney games, the first part of that gives us a 0.0064 improvement.

Best case scenario for RPI is that we play Ole Miss and then Vandy. If I assume that the rest of the rating is evenly distributed between OWP and OOWP, I can estimate the second part of the formula above as improving about 0.0026.

Vandy has the 6th toughest schedule and Ole Miss ranks 36th.  I don't know how to put a number on that though, but using the 6th and 36th rated teams win % in RPI gives a rough idea, and the improvement ends up being 0.0036.

The total improvment is then 0.0126, which makes our RPI rank about 58-59, which might be just good enough to slip in.

Now the thing I leave out is our last game against UK.  Just PLAYING UK will be a huge improvement, because UK has the best win percentage in the country and that's half the formula.  In other words, even if we beat Ole Miss, Vandy and then lose to UK, our RPI from the UK game will go up a bit, which hopefully cancels any inaccuracies in my calculations.

Of course, if we BEAT UK, it's all a moot point.   

Frankly, I'm sick of hearing about RPI.  Sure, it's really important to the committee- except when it isn't.  Recall 2008, when we finished with the highest RPI number in the history of the formula, and still only got the lowest 2 seed- which in essence meant that the committee considered us the #8 team.  The selection criteria have always been a moving target for us- some years, it's all about RPI.  Some years, it's all about SOS.  Some years, it's all about our record in the last ten games.  Who the hell knows what they're looking for this year?