My depressing big-picture thoughts

[Black Diamond Vol]

1.  Alabama 2006.  5 years ago. That's the last time I was there to see a truly big win in Neyland Stadium.  And I only consider that one "big" because Bama is our rival- they sucked that year.  The last time I was in attendance to see us beat any SEC team with a pulse was LSU in 2001.  Ten long years.  Oh, I didn't go to every game over that time, I did miss a few (most famously UF in '04, and also the entire 2009 season when I hurt my knee) but I was there for most of them.  I've forgotten what it feels like to walk out of  Neyland Stadium (or ANY stadium, for that matter) after a big win, and this saddens me greatly.

2.  Fulmer did not recruit SEC level talent in his last five years.  Kiffin did, but his one class was full of thugs that have already all washed out of the program.  Dooley is doing a fine job, consistently landing us in the top 10-15 in Rivals' Rankings every year.  Unfortunately, the top 10-15 in the country these days usually translates to 5th or 6th best in the SEC.  Yes, we're recruiting better, but are we really making up any ground on our biggest rivals?  I guess the 2012 season will tell us for sure, but based on what I saw last night, it sure as hell doesn't look like it.  I see classes full of solid players, but I don't any of the true difference-makers it takes to win at a high level in the SEC.  Guys like Richardson, Mathieau, Tebow, Harvin, and Newton.  15 years ago, we were signing 2-3 of those types every year.  Not anymore.  

3.  Geography is partly to blame.  Compared to our SEC rivals, we don't have a decent in-state recruiting base.  That's no secret- but why is it?  Why do Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and South Carolina- states with a fraction of Tennessee's total  population- annually produce so many more great players than we do?  Without turning this into a politiVol thread, I think it's because we don't have the African-American population they do.  The only real agricultural part of the state is way out west.  That's where all the slaves were, and when they were freed that's where they stayed, for the most part.  Thus, 150 years later, the only real concentration of AA's in Tennessee is in Memphis, 400 miles away from Knoxville.  That's not something that can be fixed.  We can sink more money into our high schools, build shining new football facilites and improve our prep programs, but that's not the problem.  They just don't have the athletes that our neighbors do.

4.  We used to make up for this with our national recruiting, but that isn't happening anymore.  I hate to say it, but Kiffin was right about one thing- we no longer have the national clout to pull blue-chippers out of California, Texas, and other big states like we used to.  And before you bring up Tyler Bray, remember that he was a 3* when he committed, and we beat out San Diego State for him.  He's certainly played at a higher level for UT, but that's not the point.  When is the last time we went out West and got somebody that USC, UCLA, and Oregon really wanted?  Kevin Burnett?  Kevin Simon?  When is the last time we beat out the fake ut for a Texas recruit?  I haven't seen many Chuck Webbs coming here from Ohio lately.   And we don't have a shoe company founder as an alum to buy our recruits for us like some other programs I can name.

5.  And that's not even mentioning our troubles recruiting in other SEC states.  You think we could pull a Peyton Manning out of Louisiana today?  Or an Albert Haynesworth out of SC? Or a Tee Martin out of Alabama?  Or a Jamal Lewis and Deon Grant out of Georgia?  Certainly not on a consistent basis (Da'rick Rogers is an exception, but we should be getting 2-3 guys at his level out of GA every year- especially with UGA down right now).  We feasted in these states in the past, mostly because the coaches at the big programs there were idiots.  But we're not likely to see that again, especially with all the money rolling into the league right now.  Every team in the SEC can now afford to pay the big bucks to get any coach they want.  You're not going to see many more Donnans, Zooks, Duboses or Dinardos at the big schools in this league anymore.  

6.  There is one bit of good news.  Our recruiting surge in the '90s roughly coincided with the completion of the Neyland-Thompson center.  We had the best facilities in America hands-down back then.  And with the new football building opening next year, that's about to be the case once more.  But again, how long do you expect that to last, with all the money rolling into this league (and others)?

7.  All of which leads me to consider this depressing possibility: What if this is the new normal?  We've all long thought that this was just a "down" time in our program's history, but what if it isn't?  Is this what we can expect from now on?  6-6 or 7-5 every year, with maybe one 10 win year thrown in once a decade for good measure?  It's not an easy possibility to consider, but it just may be a truth that we're going to have to come to grips with.

[WoodstockVol]

The worst down period in modern times for Tennessee was 1958-1964. I hope Tennessee doesn't stay down that long!

[CobbWebb]

Our coaches and recruiters have to be savvy enough to work in the gray areas. I like Dooley and hope that he understands that he can't be a Mr. Goodie Two Shoes for long. If he is going to compete, he's going to have to go Urban and talk out of both sides of his mouth. He's going to have to go Saban and bump the shat out of prospects. He's going to have to go Miles and turn a blind eye to some of the shenanigans of his players.

It's either do that or lose. That's the way it is in bigtime college athletics. It's sad but it's true. And by the way, when we were winning, that is exactly what Fulmer did.

CW

[CobbWebb]

I think it is safe to say that we have been down since the mid 2000s. Do the math.

CW

The worst down period in modern times for Tennessee was 1958-1964. I hope Tennessee doesn't stay down that long!

[WoodstockVol]

I think it is safe to say that we have been down since the mid 2000s. Do the math.

CW

I don't count that because We were in the SECCG once

[BigOrange Maniac]

7.  All of which leads me to consider this depressing possibility: What if this is the new normal?  We've all long thought that this was just a "down" time in our program's history, but what if it isn't?  Is this what we can expect from now on?  6-6 or 7-5 every year, with maybe one 10 win year thrown in once a decade for good measure?  It's not an easy possibility to consider, but it just may be a truth that we're going to have to come to grips with.

I don't think 6-6 or 7-5 is the new norm for Tennessee football. At least it shouldn't be. Our program is strong enough to demand better than that. We have excellent facilities, one of the biggest fanbases in the nation and a very strong history and tradition. I agree that the new landscape of the SEC and of college football in general isn't conducive for raiding blue-chip talent from other states like it once was. But some of that can be overcome. What I do think is that the days of us expecting a 10-win season every year are probably over.

[PirateVOL]

Our coaches and recruiters have to be savvy enough to work in the gray areas. I like Dooley and hope that he understands that he can't be a Mr. Goodie Two Shoes for long. If he is going to compete, he's going to have to go Urban and talk out of both sides of his mouth. He's going to have to go Saban and bump the shat out of prospects. He's going to have to go Miles and turn a blind eye to some of the shenanigans of his players.

It's either do that or lose. That's the way it is in bigtime college athletics. It's sad but it's true. And by the way, when we were winning, that is exactly what Fulmer did.

CW

Right now we can't afford any attrition, for probably for 1-2 more years, then he can start taking chances.  We just don't have any depth at the moment.

[CobbWebb]

I understand that. It's just a bad, bad spot to be in for him. Recruit solid citizens and build depth and lose. It looks more and more like Dooley is the perfect hire for setting up our next coach to win. I am not against Dooley, I want him to make it but the deck is stacked against him.

IF, however, he is to win, he is going to have to take some chances. That's the way it is.

CW

Right now we can't afford any attrition, for probably for 1-2 more years, then he can start taking chances.  We just don't have any depth at the moment.

[Inspector Vol]

It will be 2013 or 14 before we have the players we need and any depth of good players to compete. We also need two stud running backs and wide receivers to go with that group not to mention a qb and that is just the offense.

Defensively we need more speed, and even more speed not to mention run stuffers at DT. 

[RON]

Great post BDV.

[VinnieVOL]

Good post BDV, and it echoes much of what was going through my mind on the 25 minute walk back to my parked truck after the game last night.  We were walking amongst a throng of UGA fans (sober ones mind you, the drunk ones are a diff story) and they were pretty ho-hum.  Beating TN at Neyland def. Isn't a big deal anymore.

Attending the games this year, I think a lot about what its going to be like taking my son to the games and sharing that with him the same way me and Dad have ever since I became old enough to go to the games.

I wonder, will I be talking about the good old days?  Will his developing years be spent watching  the "Decade of Dominance" dvd and asking me about what it was like to watch those teams?

While I'd like to hold on to the "We are Tennessee, we will reclaim our rightful place" mantra, our position in SEC landscape isn't a hopeful one.

[BanditVol]

On your third point, you are wildly overestimating the population of Tennessee.  Louisiana actually is way more populated than Tennessee, and Alabama is not that far behind.  Mississippi and S Carolina are in fact more sparsely populated, but also have the highest percentage of blacks of any states.  And yes, those are big factors.

Why do you think the SEC does so well anyway?  The huge number of black athletes that want to stay closer to home.  I saw an article on this back in the mid-80s, which indicated that the (then-new) 85-scholarship limit would swing the balance of power in college football to the South for that very reason (nothern schools unable to compensate with sheer numbers).  Not long after that Miami dominated, then Florida State, and finally pretty much the SEC.   The only schools that broke that trend are Nebraska and USC.  Nebraska did it by focusing on brining in southern athletes (Tommy Frazier, etc), while USC used the California recruiting base and Pete Carroll (anyone check the Seahawks in the standings lately?).  Which implies that a really good coach can break the trend, but the balance of power will be in the South so long as that's where all the really good athletes are.

Finally, I have heard that Tennessee has practice limits that affect HS football, but currently I have no link or proof of that.

[Black Diamond Vol]

On your third point, you are wildly overestimating the population of Tennessee.  Louisiana actually is way more populated than Tennessee, and Alabama is not that far behind.  Mississippi and S Carolina are in fact more sparsely populated, but also have the highest percentage of blacks of any states.  And yes, those are big factors.

Nope.  Tennessee has nearly 1.5 million more residents than Alabama, and nearly 2 million more than Louisiana.  Among current SEC states, only Florida and Georgia are more populated.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_population

[BanditVol]

Nope.  Tennessee has nearly 1.5 million more residents than Alabama, and nearly 2 million more than Louisiana.  Among current SEC states, only Florida and Georgia are more populated.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_population

Okay.  I was planning to look that up, but got lazy.  That much of an advantage is not "a fraction" by any means.  It's a pretty small difference IYAM.

[EmerilVOL]

2.  Fulmer did not recruit SEC level talent in his last five years.  Kiffin did, but his one class was full of thugs that have already all washed out of the program.  Dooley is doing a fine job, consistently landing us in the top 10-15 in Rivals' Rankings every year.  Unfortunately, the top 10-15 in the country these days usually translates to 5th or 6th best in the SEC.  Yes, we're recruiting better, but are we really making up any ground on our biggest rivals?  I guess the 2012 season will tell us for sure, but based on what I saw last night, it sure as hell doesn't look like it.  I see classes full of solid players, but I don't any of the true difference-makers it takes to win at a high level in the SEC.  Guys like Richardson, Mathieau, Tebow, Harvin, and Newton.  15 years ago, we were signing 2-3 of those types every year.  Not anymore.  

5.  And that's not even mentioning our troubles recruiting in other SEC states.  You think we could pull a Peyton Manning out of Louisiana today?  Or an Albert Haynesworth out of SC? Or a Tee Martin out of Alabama?  Or a Jamal Lewis and Deon Grant out of Georgia?  Certainly not on a consistent basis (Da'rick Rogers is an exception, but we should be getting 2-3 guys at his level out of GA every year- especially with UGA down right now).  We feasted in these states in the past, mostly because the coaches at the big programs there were idiots.  But we're not likely to see that again, especially with all the money rolling into the league right now.  Every team in the SEC can now afford to pay the big bucks to get any coach they want.  You're not going to see many more Donnans, Zooks, Duboses or Dinardos at the big schools in this league anymore.  

7.  All of which leads me to consider this depressing possibility: What if this is the new normal?  We've all long thought that this was just a "down" time in our program's history, but what if it isn't?  Is this what we can expect from now on?  6-6 or 7-5 every year, with maybe one 10 win year thrown in once a decade for good measure?  It's not an easy possibility to consider, but it just may be a truth that we're going to have to come to grips with.

 

I know everyone is going to savage me for this so go ahead and post your shots at me.....

Why did y'all want Fulmer gone so we could come to this?  Yeah we were not in the SECCG every year but it seems that we are nowhere near that now.  We are now looking like Bama under Shula than Bama under anyone.....frankly I am sick of this and think that we would have been better off retaining Fulmer rather than having to go through all of this.  Yes I know Fulmer had declined and we were not winning games....let me clue you in....we aint won games for a three whole years now....and I kind of dislike going to the Music City Bowl every year....

Yeah we are reeling like a drunken sailor on Ciclon at the moment....but the most horrific thing I see is that we aren't going to AA meetings and getting off the Ciclon.  I do like Dooley and think he is a fine person, but is he the man to take our drunken asses off the street and get us to that AA meeting?  I am not sure of that.  Frankly I think that I must lay this all at the feet of the true man in charge that fired Fulmer, hired that Lame Kitten who is still paying probation dividends with a vengance, and then well I am not sure of what to think now.....Mike thank you for such a depressing time in Tennessee athletics.

 

[BigOrange Maniac]

I know everyone is going to savage me for this so go ahead and post your shots at me.....

Why did y'all want Fulmer gone so we could come to this?  Yeah we were not in the SECCG every year but it seems that we are nowhere near that now.  We are now looking like Bama under Shula than Bama under anyone.....frankly I am sick of this and think that we would have been better off retaining Fulmer rather than having to go through all of this.  Yes I know Fulmer had declined and we were not winning games....let me clue you in....we aint won games for a three whole years now....and I kind of dislike going to the Music City Bowl every year....

Yeah we are reeling like a drunken sailor on Ciclon at the moment....but the most horrific thing I see is that we aren't going to AA meetings and getting off the Ciclon.  I do like Dooley and think he is a fine person, but is he the man to take our drunken asses off the street and get us to that AA meeting?  I am not sure of that.  Frankly I think that I must lay this all at the feet of the true man in charge that fired Fulmer, hired that Lame Kitten who is still paying probation dividends with a vengance, and then well I am not sure of what to think now.....Mike thank you for such a depressing time in Tennessee athletics.

 

 

Fulmer didn't make it to a bowl game two out of his last four years. As bad as UT has been lately, we're 2-of-2 on bowl games since Fulmer's been gone and, barring disaster, we'll be 3-of-3 after this season.

[EmerilVOL]

Fulmer didn't make it to a bowl game two out of his last four years. As bad as UT has been lately, we're 2-of-2 on bowl games since Fulmer's been gone and, barring disaster, we'll be 3-of-3 after this season.

Yeah 0-2 also...going to the Music City bowl is not a great thing.....

[VinnieVOL]

I don't think your crazy Emeril.  What progress has been made since Fulmer's ouster?  We still suxes, we still can't beat Florida.  Now we can't beat anyone except the SEC doormats.  Sure Fulmer was on a downswing, but now I wonder if he wouldve been able to bounce back.  Where we are right now just doesn't seem any better.

Idk what to think.  I like Dooley, but I'm not too excited right now.

[BanditVol]

This was my position all along, that the risk of getting rid of Fulmer was greater than the potential reward of improvement.  Until 2008 came along, we weren't as bad as many seemed to think, IMO.

I think many saw it as a  blind defense of Fulmer...it wasn't.   I just looked at what happened to Michigan and Nebraska after their "name" coaches left and thought that was more likely than what happened at Florida when Meyer took over.

It is what it is.  I want to see this team come out against LSU and show some heart.

[BigOrange Maniac]

I don't think your crazy Emeril.  What progress has been made since Fulmer's ouster?  We still suxes, we still can't beat Florida.  Now we can't beat anyone except the SEC doormats.  Sure Fulmer was on a downswing, but now I wonder if he wouldve been able to bounce back.  Where we are right now just doesn't seem any better.

Idk what to think.  I like Dooley, but I'm not too excited right now.

There's one glaring difference: Under Fulmer, the program was still on a downward slide. Under Dooley, the downward slide has stopped and it's on its way back up. Slowly, sure, but on its way back up nonetheless. Everyone was cautioned that this would happen. You don't get rid of one coaching staff and immediately start getting better with another...at least not usually. There will almost always be a few years where it will get worse before it gets better. The Kiffin experiment was disastrous. If we go straight from Fulmer to Dooley, we're competing for the SEC East this year, IMO. But here's where we are: We're coming off seasons of 7-5 and 6-6, and with a little luck we'll be 6-6 this year. But there's some hope for the future. If Fulmer will still here, we would still be having mediocre seasons, and could we look into the future and say there's hope? I don't think so. We'd be sitting here with a 3-2 record and still have the 4 or 5 year process of turning it around ahead of us.

It's going to take patience. (I say that as someone who hoped for an 8-4 finish this season, so I'm as impatient as anyone...but our situation is what it is.)

[VinnieVOL]

What do you all think are signs we are trending upward?  I'm not being smart, I just want to know your thoughts.

Certainly isn't the run game.

[BigOrange Maniac]

What do you all think are signs we are trending upward?  I'm not being smart, I just want to know your thoughts.

Certainly isn't the run game.

We're rebuilding an extreme lack of depth (lack of anything, really) on the line on both sides of the ball. The offensive line has been a huge disappointment and if it doesn't improve, I hope there are some changes made there at the end of the season. But at least we have quality bodies in place that can play, given the right teaching and fundamentals.

Even though I'm infuriated by what I perceive as soft play defensively when teams are marching up and down the field, I think Justin Wilcox's approach is working and our defense is better now than it was in '08. For that matter, I think it's better than it was under Kiffin.

Our receiving corps should be one of the best in the nation — maybe THE best in the nation — next year. That's something we haven't been able to say in a long, long time. Which I think is important, since UT was recognized as Wide Receiver U back in the '80s and early '90s.

Last year, we hung close with Florida for a half and then got blown out. Last year, we didn't hang with Georgia at all.

This year, we were coming back at the end against UF and we had our chances against UGA. I was as mad as anyone when I stomped out of the stadium with nine minutes left Saturday. Went straight home and sold my LSU tickets because I have no desire to go back this Saturday and waste a day and money to see what will probably be a blowout that I can watch just as easily on TV.

But the result against Georgia from last year to this year says a lot about the progress this team has made. Certainly, UGA isn't any worse now than they were then. In fact, I think they're better now than they were then.

This is not going to be a good season. We're not going to beat LSU, we're not going to beat Alabama, it will take a minor miracle to beat South Carolina, and we'll probably need a little luck to beat Vandy if Bray isn't back by then.

But here's the way I look at it: If Hunter and Bray stay healthy (damn the injuries, but the best coaching staffs in America have yet to find a solution to avoid them), we are a healthy running game away from being a 10-2 football team this year...with a schedule that includes the top three teams in the SEC West. And when it comes to the running game, we have the bodies in place to make it work. They're just (IMO) poorly coached.

I really believe that. Which, to me, given the roster we have right now, says a lot about where the program as headed. It's just going to take longer to get there than any of us like.

Edited to add: I do have concerns. If we can't start recruiting some blue-chip players, we'll never be able to seriously compete with Florida and Alabama. Good talent evaluation will take you so far (and I listened to Jimmy Hyams break down how many players are contributing from the last two years' recruiting classes and how many were washouts, and it's pretty clear that Dooley and his staff have done a very good job of evaluating talent so far)...but at the end of the day you're gonna have to have some blue-chippers on the field if you're going to finish in Atlanta with any regularity. Boise State's staff probably does a better job at talent evaluation than anyone in the nation...but there's no way that BSU team could handle the week-in, week-out grind of the SEC. Tommy Tuberville did a great job of talent evaluation at Auburn...but, there again, his teams couldn't regularly compete with the best of the SEC. So that's an area of concern. But, for now, I'll trust what Dooley is doing and give him the benefit of the doubt. I think he's filling important holes and concentrating on that first. Given his attention to detail, I expect that he has a multi-year planned laid out for how to approach this and rebuild this team. Let's give him time to do it.

[Crockett]

The worst down period in modern times for Tennessee was 1958-1964. I hope Tennessee doesn't stay down that long!

The longest down period was 73 to 83. Those were both 8 win seasons so you could say 74 to 82. There was a lot of mediocrity in those 10 years.

[Black Diamond Vol]

Edited to add: I do have concerns. If we can't start recruiting some blue-chip players, we'll never be able to seriously compete with Florida and Alabama. Good talent evaluation will take you so far (and I listened to Jimmy Hyams break down how many players are contributing from the last two years' recruiting classes and how many were washouts, and it's pretty clear that Dooley and his staff have done a very good job of evaluating talent so far)...but at the end of the day you're gonna have to have some blue-chippers on the field if you're going to finish in Atlanta with any regularity. Boise State's staff probably does a better job at talent evaluation than anyone in the nation...but there's no way that BSU team could handle the week-in, week-out grind of the SEC. Tommy Tuberville did a great job of talent evaluation at Auburn...but, there again, his teams couldn't regularly compete with the best of the SEC. So that's an area of concern. But, for now, I'll trust what Dooley is doing and give him the benefit of the doubt. I think he's filling important holes and concentrating on that first. Given his attention to detail, I expect that he has a multi-year planned laid out for how to approach this and rebuild this team. Let's give him time to do it.

I agree with this.  Dooley is stocking our roster with a lot of quality 3 and 4 star guys.  That's how you build the foundation.  These are the types you need to be competitive in the SEC.  But you're not actually going to WIN the SEC without a few superstars.  You don't need an entire class full of them, just 2-3 a year will do, as long as they're surrounded by the types of guys we're already bringing in.  What I wouldn't give to have a superstar RB on this roster.  During the game Saturday, they showed a highlight reel of Charlie Garner.  How is it we had THREE great RBs back then (and then again later with Lewis, Henry, and Stephens), but we can't even find just one today?

[BanditVol]

I agree with this.  Dooley is stocking our roster with a lot of quality 3 and 4 star guys.  That's how you build the foundation.  These are the types you need to be competitive in the SEC.  But you're not actually going to WIN the SEC without a few superstars.  You don't need an entire class full of them, just 2-3 a year will do, as long as they're surrounded by the types of guys we're already bringing in.  What I wouldn't give to have a superstar RB on this roster.  During the game Saturday, they showed a highlight reel of Charlie Garner.  How is it we had THREE great RBs back then (and then again later with Lewis, Henry, and Stephens), but we can't even find just one today?

Great points.  A counter-point is that it don't take a whole lot of blue chips.  Bray, Rogers, and Hunter give us three, so maybe on offense we need a couple more, and throw in a few on D?  And Bray was not a 5-star nor anywhere close in HS, and we might get a few more of those too.