I've been thinking about this since November, actually, but didn't want to post until after the season was over. My minimum expectation is 10-2. Here's how I think it breaks down.
Clear Underdog - Bammer - but still should be very competitive and our best chance at a win since 2008 or 2007
Slight Underdog - Uga - depends on how well Kirby Smart works out. Hoping for a Muschamp and not McIllwain year.
Favorite but chance of upset (in order of that possibility)
Texas A&M - yes they lost both QBs, but always good on offense under Sumlin and also as unpredictable as any team in the SEC. We play them on the road sandwiched between a road game at Uga and bammer. Will their D continue to improve under Chavis? I think they will score some points, but their D still won't be able to stop us and we win comfortably, but this game worries me.
Virginia Tech - outside chance of upset IMO, but again, new coach and they have plenty of talent. If new coach clicks they could win, but I don't expect it.
Florida - hands down, we should beat them. But...it's Florida, nuff said.
South Carolina - Yes, we have beaten them three years in a row, but just barely and it's in Columbia. The "ready to retire" SOS was not nearly as good and the new coach might give them a spark. Then again, the new coach is Muschamp. As much as I want to just laugh it off, we have yet to beat the POS, so I am going to include SC in this group based mostly on the fact that although we have won three in a row, they have all been extremely close.
Games we should win (again in order of difficulty)
Mizzou - they top this list primarily because they managed to beat us three years in a row. But Pinkel was the main reason, and I am not impressed with his replacement. Still, it's a team that has the history of beating us and their new QB might be clicking when they play us, so they are definitely IMO the "best of the rest)
Kentucky - they just lost their QB, which was most of their offense, but they at least try to play us tough.
Vandy - see Kentucky. Although we dominated both, Vandy hung with us most of the first half and the game is in Nashville. Otherwise they would be below...
Ohio - One of the better midmajors and not someone we should take for granted. Worst case is probably they hang with us a couple quarters.
Appy State - See Ohio. Might be better than Ohio but I put them in the same category.
Tennesse Tech - A scrimmage which gives the younger kids a chance to play.
Final note...not sure Kentucky and Vandy are really better than Ohio or Appy State, but at the end of the day it doesn't matter because a loss to any of them would be a huge upset.