Clockwork

[ReVOLver]

Can you post the defensive efficiency numbers (or whatever those stats are that illustrate defensive effectiveness)  for UT now, especially in conference play? I'm curious to see if they are truly better now or if I just perceive that they are.

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[Salvador VOLi]

Can you post the defensive efficiency numbers (or whatever those stats are that illustrate defensive effectiveness)  for UT now, especially in conference play? I'm curious to see if they are truly better now or if I just perceive that they are.

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I actually have a corollary question to this.  CO, you spoke before that the numbers don't speak to Martin's teams as having any particular acumen in defense.  It seems to me that our defense has been outstanding the past 6 games or so.  Do you think that this is fool's gold or are we truly watching a great defensive team?

[Clockwork Orange]

I will look up the latest numbers when I get home later tonight, but I can tell you for sure they'll be much, much better. And Salvador, I agree the defense has been much better, and against good competition. I don't think it's fool's gold but we'll see.

What it looks like to me is that Martin's team has now fully bought in to his approach.

[Clockwork Orange]

I just now had time to look it up. Last time we spoke on this (Nov 29), UT's defense was 131st in adjusted defensive efficiency. We are now 73rd, allowing 0.948 points per possession. That's really nice progress and it's been obvious.

The offense has fallen to 145th, and we're rated 102nd overall.

[Clockwork Orange]

I just now had time to look it up. Last time we spoke on this (Nov 29), UT's defense was 131st in adjusted defensive efficiency. We are now 73rd, allowing 0.948 points per possession. That's really nice progress and it's been obvious.

The offense has fallen to 145th, and we're rated 102nd overall.

I thought I'd bring this back to the top with an update. Two weeks later, the offense has slipped a little further to 150th, but the defense continues to progress and we're now 59th at 0.939 points per possession.

That is much better than any of Cuonzo's Missouri St. teams. I'm guessing this team's length is a luxury he never had before.

[ReVOLver]

I thought I'd bring this back to the top with an update. Two weeks later, the offense has slipped a little further to 150th, but the defense continues to progress and we're now 59th at 0.939 points per possession.

That is much better than any of Cuonzo's Missouri St. teams. I'm guessing this team's length is a luxury he never had before.

Nice. This accentuates what I was saying yesterday... if he can get a point guard and continue to sign difference makers like Stokes, he has a winning formula. Defense and rebounding. When this team is mentally in the game they can defend just about anybody. The only exception since conference play started was UK at Rupp and a lot of that was due to turnovers and easy points for UK off of those. It will be interesting to see how they deal with Florida's pressure this weekend. Vandy is a very experienced ballclub and UF really sped them up and turned them over down there. I wonder if we will see four guards on the court a lot this weekend with Trae, Skyler, Cam, and McRae out there with Maymon / Hall. It doesn't sound like Jarnell is going to play. The matchup problem there is Murphy if they put him on the floor at the same time as Young but Murphy is a perimeter big man so maybe Cam or Jordan could handle him.

If we can somehow steal one at Florida (and no I don't think we will) then it is possible that they could actually get to 18 wins. Beating Florida and holding serve at home... admittedly Vandy will be tough even at home... would give them 16, and Alabama, South Carolina, and LSU are all beatable on the road. Considering the coaching change and the roster, I would take 18-13 all day.

[Clockwork Orange]

Back to this again, because the trend continues to be important. Two games later, we're 42nd defensively at 0.930 PPP (adjusted for schedule).

When you look at this on a relative basis, dividing the opponent's PPP by their schedule-adjusted average PPP, you can look at a game-by-game trend for the season to this point:



Note that a ratio of 1 means we let the opponent score exactly their average PPP, so above 1 is bad and below 1 is good.

It appears that ETSU (December 23rd), a game we narrowly won at home, was the turning point. After that game we were 5-6 with an RPI rank in the high 200s, and the natives (especially me) were highly restless. After ETSU the defense would improve and never be as bad as it was before. Now this doesn't map perfectly to wins and losses because the offense has been a little worse overall and woefully inconsistent. Of course there are still games to play but all indications are that this is now a team that will hold opponents to less than their typical offensive output.

The original post was made just after the Oakland loss, which was just the beginning of a maddening month of bad basketball. ReVOLver asked for an update right after the UConn game, and my next update was after the South Carolina game (ironically our worst defensive effort since December).

With five games to go, sitting at 14-12, we need the defense to keep this up. If it does, we are likely NIT-bound and have an ever so slight chance of clawing our way to the NCAAT bubble.

[ReVOLver]

Good stuff!

[BanditVol]

Defense and rebounding. When this team is mentally in the game they can defend just about anybody. The only exception since conference play started was UK at Rupp and a lot of that was due to turnovers and easy points for UK off of those.

If we can somehow steal one at Florida (and no I don't think we will) then it is possible that they could actually get to 18 wins. Beating Florida and holding serve at home... admittedly Vandy will be tough even at home... would give them 16, and

Turnovers and UK's shot percentage in the first half (they hit their first 11 shots!) had something to do with that, and I suppose you can blame some or most of the shooting percentage on D particularly, but don't forget that UK out-shot us at the FT line 14-0 in the first half of that game.  So road games always tilt to the home team, and probably more so at rupp, but that's highly egregious even factoring those two things in.  That was one of the most biased called games I have seen in my life, way beyond the fact that it was a road game at rupp.

Looking back at your statement about UF just makes me feel really good about where this team is right now.  Just need to win out, which seems very doable, and the bubble will take care of itself.

Heck, if we keep playing like this, a deep run in the SECCT is downright likely. 

[Clockwork Orange]

Back to this again, because the trend continues to be important. Two games later, we're 42nd defensively at 0.930 PPP (adjusted for schedule).

With five games to go, sitting at 14-12, we need the defense to keep this up. If it does, we are likely NIT-bound and have an ever so slight chance of clawing our way to the NCAAT bubble.

How about another update on the UT defense? We've gone 3-1 since this last post and the defense has basically stood pat. We're still 42nd with 0.931 PPP. The offense has done a little better in this stretch, though, and in the three wins it was really the offense that pulled us through at key moments (and the O let us down big time against Alabama). We're now 104th in offense at 1.052 PPP.

The story of the season, if we set aside the awful November/December swoon, is that the defense has become an NCAA tourney-caliber defense and the offense is having to really grind to squeeze out any points it can. My sense is that with McRae's progress, Tatum's steadiness, and Maymon/Stokes anchoring us pretty well in the paint, the offense really hinges on the play of Trae Golden. When he's seeing the floor well and taking care of the basketball, we are good enough to compete with NCAA tournament teams. When he's struggling, as he did for a good portion of last night, then we have trouble even getting shots off.