Rocky Top Talk has an interesting statistical breakdown of Butch Jones' wins and losses vs. the odds:
http://www.rockytoptalk.com/2015/9/15/9326239/butch-jones-and-expectations-at-kickoff-tennessee-volsAs we all know, he's 0-3 in the 50/50 games (Vanderbilt '13, Florida '14, Oklahoma '15). Interestingly, he's 2-1 in the games in which Tennessee is a moderate 'dog...but both the wins were against South Carolina. While the USCe '13 win was a good one, as that was a good team, it's a bit unsettling that the only two "signature" wins on the resume came against a coach who is, by most appearances, washed up and on the verge of retirement. (I wouldn't consider USCe '14 a signature win; that was just a game where Tennessee laid an egg and then got lucky.)
I wish we could see inside Butch Jones' head. I think it would be fascinating. What is he thinking when the game is on the line? Is his butthole clinched tighter than Phillip Fulmer's? Are his knees quaking? Florida '14 and Oklahoma '15 are carbon copies of one another (you could throw in Vandy '13, too, but I refuse to consider that a "big game"). It would be easy to say that Jones just doesn't know how to win in the fourth quarter, that he becomes too uptight. Except how do you explain USCe '13 (or '14, for that matter?) You can even throw Georgia '13 in there, too. We didn't win that game, but Jones pushed all the right buttons to win...and if Pig Howard is six inches closer to the goal line when he loses his grip on the ball, Tennessee wins and it's a major upset.
Can we safely say that Jones doesn't know how to play with the lead in the fourth quarter? That's probably more accurate. And if it were truly the case, I would feel somewhat more confident about him. He's still a young coach, relatively speaking, and that's something that can easily be overcome. But it is more concerning when you stop to consider that Jones didn't just go into his shell in the fourth quarter Saturday night...he was coaching in a shell from the outset.
One thing I do think is important, though, is the next to last paragraph: the sample size is still small. It's a little damning that Jones has lost three games in three years that he had a chance to win, but I'm not sure that's a large enough sample size to make definitive conclusions at this point. Dooley completely and totally lost me (and much of the rest of the fan base) when he lost to Florida in '12. That game came at a similar point in his tenure as Jones' Oklahoma loss. But Dooley had also suffered an inexplicable loss to Kentucky in '11. Jones has no terrible losses. Dooley also was not recruiting well; the roster had gotten worse, not better, during his tenure. Obviously Jones is seriously upgrading the talent on the roster. All of that to say that anyone who thinks Butch Jones is on the hot seat right now is kidding themselves.
The good thing is that we shouldn't have much longer to wait to start reaching some very firm conclusions about Jones' true ability. He's only had three 50/50 games in his first three seasons to this point, but he'll likely have three more within the next five weeks. If he goes 1-2 in those, the mood will probably stay about as it is now. If he goes 2-1, many will forgive him for the Oklahoma loss. If he goes 0-3, he's a dead man walking. He won't be fired in 2015, but it'll be only a matter of time.
