https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2023/08/the-uncounted-losses-to-russias-air-force.htmlI think the auther missed the boat in a couple of areas:
1) the Russians will keep flying the aircraft, because a) that is what they do and b) they have no choice
I would move the suspect airframes to training but then I spent my entire adult life in that business
(we spent a small fortune rotating CT IIs around to balance center wing box life expectancy and for new wings for the A-10s are just 2 examples)
2) ENGINES are the Russians most vulnerable issue
They have far lower life levels and shorter Mx intervals that US engines
Engines require greater levels of expertise to manage, design, sustain, etc than airframes
IMO they will run out of engines far quicker than airframes
A 3rd issue is that the Russians have been going to a more standoff offensive mode due to Western missiles (see Hawk and Patriots) and Air to Air missles.
Most of their recent "offensives" have been missile barrages (that they are now short of)
That lessens the wear and tear on their airframes