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Author Topic: Suppose we win nine regular season games  (Read 2907 times)
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Clockwork Orange
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« on: June 07, 2012, 10:19:00 EDT »

Prioritize those 9 wins, and pick the 3 losses. Rank the 12 games so that the losses you deem least damaging, most acceptable, or least frustrating are at the end, while the must-wins, as you see it, are at the top. (By the way, this is tougher than I thought it would be.)

Mine:

1, 2, 3) Georgia State, Akron, Troy. There's no excuse for losing any of these. A loss here would be a disaster even if offset by a nice win.

4) Kentucky. I almost put this at #1, but then I imagined how much more it would bother me to lose any of those three. but a second straight loss to UK-- at home-- is unthinkable.

5) Vanderbilt. There's the risk of this being a bad loss, and on top of that it's Vandy and James Franklin. Do you really want to spend an offseason reflecting on that?

6) Florida. It's going to be hard to feel good about the competitive direction of the program if we can't beat UF at one of its most vulnerable times in the last two and a half decades.

7) North Carolina State. Placing this one was tricky, but in terms of national perception I think it's more important than the games I listed after it. It's a primetime game on opening weekend and UT really needs some good visibility against the only decent non-conference team on the schedule. If we weren't assuming 9 wins, I'd put this one much higher on the list . . . because I think losing it could lead to a start as bad as 2-6.

8) Mississippi State. I think this is a mediocre program that will just hang around bowl eligibility while Mullen is there. It's a win we should really get, and its placement before Alabama and South Carolina gives us a chance to avoid 0-for-October.

9) Georgia. A lot of people are expecting UGA to be nationally competitive this year. I don't know about that, but this game is on the road and it's hard to imagine we'd even come close to being favored. I want this win, hence it being in the top 9, but it would not feel like a failure if we can't take them in Athens.

10) South Carolina. They're picked to win the East and as much as I love beating Spurrier, I'd rather have the win over UGA. This one is on the road, too.

11) Alabama. They're the nation's top program right now, and as much as I hate losing to them (and as great as it would feel to beat them), a loss here is what should be expected of our program right now.

12) Missouri. This has been a solid program, and perhaps Mizzou as an SEC member is just too new to mean much to me. This is the loss that would bug me the least. If Mizzou rolls into this game 0-for-the-SEC I might change my tune . . . but if they are competitive I can't put a loss to any traditional SEC school (or one coached by Spurrier) on this list as "less frustrating" than this one.
« Last Edit: June 07, 2012, 10:21:11 EDT by Clockwork Orange » Logged

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Volznut
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« Reply #1 on: June 07, 2012, 10:26:51 EDT »

Mizzou is a east opponent though, so it would bug me.

I think Bama and UGA have too much talent to beat. I think we can beat SC. I actually think MSU will be a tougher game than people are thinking.

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Clockwork Orange
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« Reply #2 on: June 07, 2012, 10:32:18 EDT »

Mizzou is a east opponent though, so it would bug me.

Any loss would bug me. The question is, would it bug you less than losing to Alabama? If you had to go 1-1 in those games, which would you choose as the win? That us, ultimately, how I had to put the list together . . . by making a series of those 1-1 decisions.

I think Bama and UGA have too much talent to beat. I think we can beat SC. I actually think MSU will be a tougher game than people are thinking.

I think SC and UGA are about even, and both are on the road . . . I think it would be great if we could split those, but I'm not sure if we can. Alabama is a loss, and winning would be no less than a total shock.

MSU is not an easy game. Really, with where we are after last season, none of the games I ranked below 4th has a better than 55% chance of winning, IMO. At least I think that's where the national perception would be.
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BigOrange Maniac
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« Reply #3 on: June 08, 2012, 12:42:18 EDT »

My list would echo your list...except I would place Mizzou #8 and bump everyone else down one. UT hasn't exactly been a beast in the east lately, and if the newcomer to the league came in and beat us the first year, that would really stick in my craw.
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Black Diamond Vol
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« Reply #4 on: June 08, 2012, 01:04:31 EDT »

My list would echo your list...except I would place Mizzou #8 and bump everyone else down one. UT hasn't exactly been a beast in the east lately, and if the newcomer to the league came in and beat us the first year, that would really stick in my craw.

Well, we do have a history of being very accommodating to SEC newcomers (thanks, Johnny).
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BanditVol
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« Reply #5 on: June 08, 2012, 02:33:44 EDT »

Well, we do have a history of being very accommodating to SEC newcomers (thanks, Johnny).

LOL!  I never thought of that before....not only were the losses to Arkansas and USC devastating that year (Arkansas had lost AT HOME to Citidel and the USC loss kept us out of the inagural SECC), but those were the newcomers to the SEC that year.  Funny that never occured to me before.

I don't think history will repeat itself.  Johnny is long gone, and in spite of my doubts about Dooley I think we can take Mizzou.
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Volznut
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« Reply #6 on: June 08, 2012, 04:00:34 EDT »

No, losing to Mizzou would bug me more, because it's a game we can and probably should win. They are the least veteran team returning in the SEC.

I think UGA can go undefeated this year, they have an easy schedule and are stout on defense with 10 starters back. However, with Richt coaching I think they go 10-2. IMO they have about as much talent on defense as Bama this year.



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