Hey CO, is an NCAA appearance out of the question?

[Volznut]

What if we can pull out wins over UF and Mizzou, both at home, and maybe go about 5-2 or 6-1 down the stretch?

I figure that would get us a RPI in the 40s and we'd be the solid #4 in the SEC.

[Black Diamond Vol]

I haven't studied the numbers like CO, but I'll take a stab at it.

Most years, I would say that we're already eliminated barring an SECT championship.  But with the field as watered down as it is this year, I think we could maybe work ourselves on to the bubble with a strong finish.  If we keep playing like this, I think every game left is winnable.  Not saying that will happen, but it's not out of the question.

IMO, it all hinges on Trae Golden.  He might be the most streaky and enigmatic player in UT history.  For the past 3 seasons, the team has gone as Golden has gone.  He's playing really well right now, and it's no coincidence that the team is winning.  If he can keep it up, he has a chance to lead us to the dance, and maybe even win a game or two once we get there.

[Clockwork Orange]

What if we can pull out wins over UF and Mizzou, both at home, and maybe go about 5-2 or 6-1 down the stretch?

I figure that would get us a RPI in the 40s and we'd be the solid #4 in the SEC.

I don't think it's completely out of the question if we win 6 or more out of 7 and don't exit too early in the SECT. Missouri is a different team on the road, so there's a chance there. I suspect UF is too good so we'd better win those road games.

That's a good point about being #4 in the SEC . . . there will be pressure on the committee to put 4 SEC teams in so if you can position yourself as that #4 team your chances will be better even if your resume is weak.

I haven't studied the numbers like CO, but I'll take a stab at it.

Most years, I would say that we're already eliminated barring an SECT championship.  But with the field as watered down as it is this year, I think we could maybe work ourselves on to the bubble with a strong finish.  If we keep playing like this, I think every game left is winnable.  Not saying that will happen, but it's not out of the question.

IMO, it all hinges on Trae Golden.  He might be the most streaky and enigmatic player in UT history.  For the past 3 seasons, the team has gone as Golden has gone.  He's playing really well right now, and it's no coincidence that the team is winning.  If he can keep it up, he has a chance to lead us to the dance, and maybe even win a game or two once we get there.

I think it's clear that Cuonzo has loosened up in two key areas that help Trae:

(1) He is not asking Trae to be a Point Guard, capital P, capital G. He's not even always bringing the ball up when he's in now. I think this takes some pressure off of Trae and lets him play is game a little better.

(2) He's loosened up overall on the offensive and defensive structure, and I think several players are benefiting from a little more freedom to gamble on both ends.

I will say this . . . if Trae keeps playing like this and Jordan and Jarnell keep up their end, we'll be awfully tough to beat.

[101stDad]

I don't think it is out of the question, but it certainly does appear to be quite a long shot at this point. 

Yes, we can obviously be encouraged by the play as of late, but we also have to remember that the team that lost to Georgia at home is capable of returning at any time, as well. 

Bottom line - I just want to see a consistent effort of playing hard and playing smarter basketball, like we've done the last 2-3 games.  If we get that, I'm fine with whatever the tourney outcome ends up being. 

[Black Diamond Vol]

That's a good point about being #4 in the SEC . . . there will be pressure on the committee to put 4 SEC teams in so if you can position yourself as that #4 team your chances will be better even if your resume is weak.

I don't know if they will feel the need to include 4 SEC teams this year.  In fact, if the season ended today, I'm not sure we'd even get 3 in.  UF is in, Mizzou is in (but sinking fast), OM is on the bubble (and also sinking), UK, I think, is out.  It's not out of the question that the SEC could end up as a one-bid league this year.  It's not likely, but it could happen.

[Volznut]

My question is, why have we seen such poor starts in both CCM's seasons so far, followed by a mad finish? If we play like this earlier, we're almost a shoo-in. Cuonzo can't continue this trend next year.

[Black Diamond Vol]

My question is, why have we seen such poor starts in both CCM's seasons so far, followed by a mad finish? If we play like this earlier, we're almost a shoo-in. Cuonzo can't continue this trend next year.

I'm going to give Cuonzo the benefit of the doubt, and chalk it up to learning a new system last year, and adjusting to life without Maymon this year.  But next year, there is no excuse.

[BanditVol]

Bottom line - I just want to see a consistent effort of playing hard and playing smarter basketball, like we've done the last 2-3 games.  If we get that, I'm fine with whatever the tourney outcome ends up being. 

Thats kind of how I look at it. 

As for whether we make the dance, a long shot but anything can happen.

[Volznut]

I'm going to give Cuonzo the benefit of the doubt, and chalk it up to learning a new system last year, and adjusting to life without Maymon this year.  But next year, there is no excuse.

I thought he was too slow to adjust this year. Now we are in a must win situation every game

[Clockwork Orange]

I finally remembered to check out the Dance Card to see where it thinks we stand re: the tourney. It has our chances at just 0.26%, but not as far from the bubble as I would have thought . . . a strong finish and there's a small chance.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

The LSU win is not factored in yet but I wouldn't expect it to make too much difference.

[10EC]

What if we can pull out wins over UF and Mizzou, both at home, and maybe go about 5-2 or 6-1 down the stretch?

I figure that would get us a RPI in the 40s and we'd be the solid #4 in the SEC.

Wait, is this possible?  Doesn't the selection committee reward late season streaks?

[droner]

Doesn't the selection committee reward late season streaks?

From what I heard the talking heads say the other night, that has changed somewhat. Apparently they are now not going to put as much emphasis on good play at the end of the season as compared to the overall season.

But it certainly can't hurt to be noticed at the end.

[Black Diamond Vol]

Wait, is this possible?  Doesn't the selection committee reward late season streaks?

I read an article the other day (I can't remember where) that speculated that 21 wins is the magic number for us.  That would require winning these last three and then one more in the SECT.  Or winning 2 and then 2 more in Nashville.  FWIW.

[Creek Walker]

I read an article the other day (I can't remember where) that speculated that 21 wins is the magic number for us.  That would require winning these last three and then one more in the SECT.  Or winning 2 and then 2 more in Nashville.  FWIW.

Tennessee win 2 games in the SEC tournament? LOL!

Wait...you are joking, right? 

[Clockwork Orange]

I read an article the other day (I can't remember where) that speculated that 21 wins is the magic number for us.  That would require winning these last three and then one more in the SECT.  Or winning 2 and then 2 more in Nashville.  FWIW.

I wouldn't be surprised if 20 is enough now that we beat UF. That would mean either a win over Mizzou or winning both road games and a tourney game to close the season. With that it may just depend on how soft the bubble is.

I'd feel a lot better with 21 though.

[Black Diamond Vol]

Tennessee win 2 games in the SEC tournament? LOL!

Wait...you are joking, right? 

Well of COURSE I was joking.  Obviously, the 3/1 option is our only avenue to get to 21 at this point.  And even then, the 1 is very much in doubt.