I have been tending to discount them because they lost to Toledo. On closer inspection, they are much better than that.
They threw 53 times against Toledo and ran 31. 412 yards passing and 112 running.
They switched back to run-first against Tech and A&M.
Vs Tech, 21 passes and 43 runs, 196 yards passing and 228 running.
Vs A&M, 25 passes and 42 runs, 225 yards passing and 232 running.
They obviously played much better vs. A&M and Tech. Our run D is 53rd in the country, which is middle of the pack. They are likely going to score on us some, so I hope we can keep up.
What does give me some hope is that Tech's run D is 117th in the country, and they actually held Ark below what they typically give up (254). A&M is not much better at 81st (179).
On the other hand, Arkansas is 17th in the country against the run, giving up only 94 yards per game. The NCAA does not track "QBR defense", but Arkansas is 99th in the country in passing yards allowed.
It looks like our offense vs. their D is strength vs. strength, weakness vs. weakness.
I still say we pull it out at home, but they are tougher than I thought, loss to Toledo or not.