Some meaningless stats from the last 16 UT-UF games

[Clockwork Orange]

• UT is 4-12 in these games
• Average score is UT 20, UF 28
• Average score in UT wins is 26-22; Average score in UT losses is 18-30
• UT has only scored a 1st quarter touchdown in 3 of the 16 games (and won all 3); UF scored a 1st quarter touchdown in 8 of the 16 (and won 7 of 8)
• Average 1st quarter score in UT wins is 7-3 UT; average 1st quarter score in UT losses is 1-7
• In the 12 UT losses, the most points we scored in the 1st quarter is 3 and we did this 5 times; we were shut out in the 1st quarter of the other 7
• Average halftime score in UT wins is 11-14; average halftime score in UT losses is 7-17
• UT led at halftime in just 3 of the 16 games (2000, 2003, 2006) and went 1-2 in these games; the teams were tied at halftime in two games (1998 and 2005) and UT went 1-1; UF led at halftime in the other 11 games and UT went 2-9
• On average, the teams are essentially even in the second half, each averaging 12.1 points; but there's a 9 point swing in second half margin between UT wins and UT losses
• In UT wins, they outscored UF an average of 13 -  6 in the first and third quarters; in UT losses the average was 7-15

I'm not sure that ANY of this matters when it comes to this year's game, but there are some notable patterns. The most noticeable is that Florida has consistently started faster, but when UT has won the first and third quarters they have had a great chance of winning the game.

The most stunning single stat above is that UT has only scored a first quarter TD in 3 of the 16 games, and hasn't scored a first quarter TD since 2004. In fact, UT has only scored four first half touchdowns during the 7-game losing streak and has only scored double figures in the first half twice (2006 and 2007). It's also noteworthy that on average, UT has trailed at halftime even in its wins in this series.

[ReVOLver]

I believe out of all those things, the first quarter TDs and winning the first and third quarters are the most key this week.

I also believe that UT is going to start with the ball, because I expect Dooley to take the ball if they win the toss and I expect Florida to defer if it wins the toss. If they can score on that first drive, it will go a long way towards exorcising some demons. Even if one is not trying to minimize Florida's offense, it would seem obvious that they are not built to play catch-up... they have an inexperienced (yet talented) QB on the road and don't appear to have typical Florida playmakers at WR. Reed is outstanding at TE and Gillislee is really good if healthy, but getting up on them could minimize the impact those guys have.

[VinnieVOL]

Can you guys imagine the level of apeshizzle Neyland will go to if CP takes the opening kickoff to the house?

Students may storm the field right then and there.

[ReVOLver]

Can you guys imagine the level of apeshizzle Neyland will go to if CP takes the opening kickoff to the house?

Students may storm the field right then and there.

If Florida doesn't kick it through the end zone I'd be shocked. They have a really good kicker.

However if for some reason either DY or CP could house one... the place might fall into the river.

[Flea]

I believe out of all those things, the first quarter TDs and winning the first and third quarters are the most key this week.

I also believe that UT is going to start with the ball, because I expect Dooley to take the ball if they win the toss and I expect Florida to defer if it wins the toss. If they can score on that first drive, it will go a long way towards exorcising some demons. Even if one is not trying to minimize Florida's offense, it would seem obvious that they are not built to play catch-up... they have an inexperienced (yet talented) QB on the road and don't appear to have typical Florida playmakers at WR. Reed is outstanding at TE and Gillislee is really good if healthy, but getting up on them could minimize the impact those guys have.

I agree with all that and the first-quarter TD stat stands out to me as a significant indicator. I think it's a real role-reversal kind of game. UF will try to control the clock with running game and possession passing to minimize Vol possessions. UT will try to score quickly and often.  If UF can win the turnover battle, pressure Bray, and take advantage of its scoring opportunities with TDs rather than FGs, I think UF can win a close game. If UT gets the turnovers and Bray has time to pick apart the UF secondary, UT will win by 2 TDs or more.

[SmokeyJoe]

Hard data has its place, but so does passion! ;-)

[SmokeyJoe]

Seriously great stats.  1st quarter stats strike me the most. That said, I just think UT matches up really well this year.  We shall see.

[BanditVol]

I notice you cut out the years 1990-1992, in which we whupped em pretty good twice (45-3 and 34-17ish).  That will tend of course to slant the stats.  I think starting from 1990 is meaningful because that's when we started playing them every year.  Then again, it was a long time ago.

Regardless, great stats.  It does show that getting out to an early lead is important in this game, and this year we have the team to do.  Man, I can't wait for the KO....and I seriously can't recall the last time that was true about a UT game.  Maybe 2009 UF, but that was mostly due to Kiffin's artificial hype. 

I am looking forward to this game probably about as much as any game in the last 10 years, with the possible exception of 2007 SECCG.

[Clockwork Orange]

I notice you cut out the years 1990-1992, in which we whupped em pretty good twice (45-3 and 34-17ish).  That will tend of course to slant the stats.  I think starting from 1990 is meaningful because that's when we started playing them every year.  Then again, it was a long time ago.

Yeah, I went as far back as I could easily find box scores online, and that was 1996.

[crockettman]

Can you guys imagine the level of apeshizzle Neyland will go to if CP takes the opening kickoff to the house?

Students may storm the field right then and there.

I still remember Dale Carter taking it to the house against Florida in '90..UT beat the brakes off of them that night 45-3