There is a funkiness going on in our numbers the likes of which I've never seen. Let me sum up.
UT has played five games against the RPI top 25. UT is 1-4 in those games.
UT has played eleven more games against the RPI 26-100. UT is 6-5 in these games.
UT has played ten games against RPI 101+. UT is 8-2 in these games.
Now, when you just look at things in terms of these numbers you can see why UT is being talked about as a bubble team. We have 7 wins against the RPI top 100. We have two losses against 101+, but one was on the road and the other is offset by a great win over UVA.
A closer look makes it obvious that this is horseshizzle:
Those six 26-100 wins are against Alabama (100), Georgia (90), Ole Miss (72), Arkansas (68), LSU (65), and Xavier (52). Jay Coleman's Dance Card, which has correctly predicted 93% of at-large bids since inception in 2000 and 73 of 74 the last two years, says that not one of those six teams is likely to make the tournament. Yeah, we thought at least Xavier was a good win-- and then they lost 6 of their last 11 and promptly fell to the bubble if not out. Xavier is now 6 teams back of the bubble according to the Dance Card. Of the other five teams, the closest to dancing is Arkansas, 17 teams off the bubble (and right behind UT).
UT has one win against a team that will be dancing-- its pummeling of UVA back in December that nobody has really figured out. But it gets even worse because UT has 11 losses, and only four of those were to teams that will definitely be dancing (Wichita, Kentucky, Florida x2). Missouri is a bubble team (just out of the tourney according to the Dance Card).
To sum up:
UT has played five games against surefire tourney teams and is 1-4.
UT has played three games against bubble teams (if we consider as many as 10 back from the bubble in the Dance Card to be bubble teams) and is 1-2.
UT has played 18 games against teams very unlikely to make the tourney, and is 13-5.Yet due to flukey RPI numbers and a very soft bubble, somehow THAT is being seen as a tournament resume.