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Author Topic: I'm getting ahead of myself again, but...  (Read 3823 times)
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Black Diamond Vol
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« on: October 22, 2013, 02:15:23 EDT »

I've been thinking about the trajectory of our program, and the timeline for when they should "arrive".  Here's what I'm thinking:

2014 should be pretty similar to this season.  We'll probably lose the entire OL, and most of the front 7 on D.  That's pretty rough, but should be mitigated by the infusion of talent in the incoming recruiting class, as well as the returnees having a year in the system, hopefully eliminating the acclimation period we saw over the first several games.  The schedule is a bit easier, as well.  I would expect about the same as this season- 6 or 7 wins.  Maybe 8 with some breaks.

2015 is the year we should see improvement across the board.  That team should be able to beat all but the best teams on the schedule.  10-2 should be very doable, and an East division title is within reach, with some breaks.

And that's our ceiling.  We'll all be satisfied with that, right?  If I told you during the depths of the Dooley era that we would soon bring in a coach who would transform this program into a 10 win team every year for the foreseeable future, you would've been thrilled, right?  Sure you would.  For a couple years.  

But we're Tennessee, not South Carolina.  And while 10 wins is nice, it will only whet our appetite for a return to our former glory.  

So how do we break through that 10 win ceiling?  Simple: We have to find a quarterback.  

Now I know we all have high hopes for Dobbs and/or Ferguson, but let's be honest: If either of them were that great, they would've seized the starting job already.  That's not to say they can't succeed, especially with all the talent we're going to put around them.  They can lead us to some very nice seasons. But they can't win a championship here.    

I make no bones about it: I'm not a big fan of spread offenses.  If it were up to me, we'd line up in a pro set and run it down your throat like bammer.  But if we're going run a spread, we need a dynamic presence at QB to win at the level we'll eventually come to expect.  Defenses in this league are just too big, fast, and strong, and if you're not going to dominate them on the line of scrimmage, you have to give them an extra playmaker to account for.

When Tebow was doing his thing at UF, conventional wisdom said that he was a once in a lifetime player, the likes of which we wouldn't see again for several decades.  Well, conventional wisdom was wrong.  Because since he left, we've seen a parade of QBs come along who can do everything Tebow did and more: Cam Newton.  Darron Thomas.  RG3.  Marcus Mariota.  Johnny Manziel.  Jameis Winston.  

That guy is out there.  There's one every year, sometimes more than one.  And it's Butch Jones' charge to find him.  He doesn't even necessarily have to be highly rated: Mariota and Manziel were 3* players coming out of HS.  Find him, and the sky is once again the limit for this program.  Just imagine any of the guys I listed surrounded by Jalen Hurd and all of our WRs.  That offense would be unstoppable.  

With all the recent rule changes, we're at the dawn of a new offensive age in CFB.  It may soon no longer be true that defense wins championships.  And if we're to succeed at the highest level with a spread offense, we need a dynamic playmaker touching the ball on every play.  Go get him, Butch.
« Last Edit: October 22, 2013, 02:33:06 EDT by Black Diamond Vol » Logged

Volznut
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2013, 03:35:43 EDT »

disagree on 2014. IMO if we land Gennesy, we can be much better. I know we lose the starting OL, but Jackson is back and basically a starter. Crowder has played a lot. Blair is an impact juco. Wiesman has played and has been described as a nasty Guard. The OL is overrated this year, and will be underrated next year. Plus, I think Hurd will make the OL look better than it is



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Tnphil
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2013, 03:39:28 EDT »

I agree....and this OL, IMO isn't built for the read option offense. They have gotten better as the season has gone on.

I'd be more concerned about the DL next year than the OL.
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midtnvol
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« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2013, 06:28:18 EDT »

I agree....and this OL, IMO isn't built for the read option offense. They have gotten better as the season has gone on.

I'd be more concerned about the DL next year than the OL.
Actually our version of the read option used to be called the counter trey. If Worley never keeps it then there is no option, it's just a dive play.
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BanditVol
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« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2013, 08:40:11 EDT »

The OL is overrated this year, and will be underrated next year. Plus, I think Hurd will make the OL look better than it is


Wishful thinking.  We are definitely going to miss this OL next year, unless Tiny's stock drops so far he stays, and even then it's a step down.

Hurd will help though.
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« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2013, 12:01:10 EDT »

Actually our version of the read option used to be called the counter trey. If Worley never keeps it then there is no option, it's just a dive play.
Did you notice that we ran it differently Saturday?  We also changed in game to allow the clown to make himself less effective
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Volznut
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« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2013, 02:18:01 EDT »

Wishful thinking.  We are definitely going to miss this OL next year, unless Tiny's stock drops so far he stays, and even then it's a step down.

Hurd will help though.

Not really. A good back can make an average OL look better. Hurd is an elite back, the type of back we have been missing. The OL will not be great, but it won't be that bad next year.

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midtnvol
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« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2013, 04:17:11 EDT »

Did you notice that we ran it differently Saturday?  We also changed in game to allow the clown to make himself less effective
Something I like about this staff is that they at least do things differently after halftime. Dooley never did.
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« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2013, 04:25:49 EDT »

Not really. A good back can make an average OL look better. Hurd is an elite back, the type of back we have been missing. The OL will not be great, but it won't be that bad next year.



Oh I agree that not all is lost...but we are going to take a step back in run game production IMO.  Hopefully by the end of the season it will have gelled and set the stage for 2015. 

But I don't see any way we don't struggle running the ball early next year, and expect more sacks also.
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« Reply #9 on: October 22, 2013, 05:41:07 EDT »

BDV...you are definitely getting ahead of yourself....always fun to speculate on the future though.   
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