He will, but odds are good that they will make the tourney despite him and he'll get a 4th year and contract extension. If Stokes stays he'll have pretty much no choice but to have a decent team.
I expect 2014-2015 to be a fall-off-the-face-of-the-earth year for UT basketball and that by April 2015 we will be starting from scratch with a new coach and little talent.
Pearl will be back and get us back to kicking ass
As for Stokes, I don't see where he has any choice. he isn't getting drafted after this yr