I don't disagree but what is more likely, converting on a 4th and 16 or an onside kick? I bet the percentages are higher with the 4th and 16. Anyway, water under the bridge.
CW
Both were pretty remote possibilites. Remember, not only did we have to convert the 4th and 16, we had to take it down and score AFTER the conversion, without burning too much clock. Dooley gambled that we would have a better chance by pinning them deep, and he turned out to be right. And considering that we have already pulled off one onside kick this year, I can see his reasoning.