A couple of what-ifs and the domino effect

[Clockwork Orange]

When I was researching UT draft picks a few weeks ago I was surprised when I was reminded that Jerry Colquitt was drafted after the 1994 season. He sat behind Andy Kelly and Heath Shuler, never once starting until the game with UCLA, and then was injured on the first series in that game. I wasn't as into UT football then as I would be a couple of years later, but I recall people being very high on Colquitt and on that Vol team until he went down. Obviously it wasn't just UT fans, as he was clearly drafted based on his high potential.

So this got me thinking about how one injury or one play can affect things. That led me to some what-ifs.

What-if #1:

So . . . what if Jerry Colquitt doesn't get injured and plays the whole 1994 season? What happens to that team, and how does it affect the future for Peyton Manning and Branndon Stewart? What effect does this have on UT football going forward?

What-if #2:

Similarly, what if Erik Ainge doesn't get hurt against Notre Dame in 2004? Then presumably Rick Clausen is no more important in UT history than Jim Bob Cooter. How does the 2004 season change? How do the three years that follow change? How is UT football different now as a result?

[PirateVOL]

Scenario 1:  I think the 94 season is better but not much different in subsequent years.  One could debate that the PT that Peyton re dived in 94 help speed his progression but given his work ethic not as much IMO.

Scenario 2:  I think it makes a huge difference in 05.  The entire mishandling of the QB situation by Fulmer and Sanders doesn't happen and be extension the huge impact on Ainge's confidence doesn't happen.  I've said it more than once but I believe that Clauson was NOT a team player and the mishandling of the QB Created a situation ripe for division of the team

[Clockwork Orange]

Scenario 1:  I think the 94 season is better but not much different in subsequent years.  One could debate that the PT that Peyton re dived in 94 help speed his progression but given his work ethic not as much IMO.

Scenario 2:  I think it makes a huge difference in 05.  The entire mishandling of the QB situation by Fulmer and Sanders doesn't happen and be extension the huge impact on Ainge's confidence doesn't happen.  I've said it more than once but I believe that Clauson was NOT a team player and the mishandling of the QB Created a situation ripe for division of the team

I'm inclined to agree on scenario 1. I bet Manning gets some PT and doesn't redshirt, while Stewart redshirts and transfers. We go into 1995 off of a better 1994 but with a QB with slightly less experience. Outcome similar, little lasting effect.

On scenario 2 I agree, but what's interesting is to consider the effects on later seasons. If Ainge isn't hurt, then 2005 is much better. What does that do? Probably no Cutcliffe. So on the one hand, you have no losing season, no stunted QB development, no loss of momentum. On the other you retain an inferior OC and QB coach rather than bringing back the guy that bought Fulmer a couple extra years. Without 2005 being a losing season, I doubt Fulmer is fired after 2008 even if that were still a losing season (and it may not have been).

Long story short, Fulmer might still be the coach and Sanders still the OC, for good or for ill. That's a significant change.

[Creek Walker]

I'm also not convinced Colquitt's injury did much to alter the program long-term. Obviously the '94 season would've looked a bit better . . . If Colquitt doesn't go down, Tennessee almost certainly beats UCLA and almost certainly beats Mississippi State. The Florida game was probably going to be a loss either way, and I'm not convinced Tennessee could've beaten Alabama even with Colquitt even though UT hung close with a couple of true freshmen at QB. The experience had to benefit Manning going forward in '95-'97, but as Pirate said, his work ethic lends itself to him excelling even if he hadn't gotten the extra experience.

As a side note, I think that '94 season was one of Fulmer's best coaching jobs. To come back from that loss to UCLA and stomp a mudhole in Georgia the way they did was outstanding. Crushing a No. 17 Virginia Tech team in the Gator Bowl was almost as good. And often lost when recalling the '90s is that Tennessee beat Washington State in the defensive classic on homecoming when WaSt was ranked in the Top 20. UT was 5 points away from being 10-2 that year with what might have been the least-talented team Fulmer ever had at Tennessee (at least until his last couple of seasons).

As to the second question, that one is fun to speculate about. If Ainge doesn't get injured, I'm inclined to believe that UT beats Notre Dame and has a very good shot at beating Auburn in the SECCG rematch. The 5-6 disaster doesn't happen in '05, presumably, and who knows where things go from there? Ultimately, Fulmer's days were numbered. He had lost his touch. If Ainge doesn't get hurt in '04, I don't think Fulmer is fired in '08, but I think he's fired by now.

[Clockwork Orange]

Ultimately, Fulmer's days were numbered. He had lost his touch. If Ainge doesn't get hurt in '04, I don't think Fulmer is fired in '08, but I think he's fired by now.

Part of me thinks that may be the case too, though it's really hard to say. Without 2005 it's actually pretty hard to paint the picture of decline that we're all familiar with now. No Sanders firing means no Cutcliffe, but it also means no Matt Luke and no Kurt Roper, as well as no Dave Clawson/3 OCs in 4 years problem. Maybe Crompton develops better with continuity and 2008 doesn't end the way it did either. There may have been a slow decay that led to his firing by 2013, but it's much harder for me to picture that with a stable staff and no losing seasons.

That picture means no Lane Kiffin as well. Oh what a dream . . .

[murfvol]

Those are great hypotheticals. I concur Colquitt's loss hurt us a ton in '94, and that Manning would have developed rapidly regardless. That having been said I'm saying we'd have lost one more game in '95 (UGA?) and won three more in '94 so there was a net loss when Colquitt went down.

I agree with Creek that a healthy Ainge prolongs the Fulmer era, but the end still comes.

[BanditVol]

Scenario 2:  I think it makes a huge difference in 05.  The entire mishandling of the QB situation by Fulmer and Sanders doesn't happen and be extension the huge impact on Ainge's confidence doesn't happen. 

I think the mishandling started in 04, when Sanders convinced Fulmer to start two true frosh over a veteran (though unskilled) senior.  Fulmer should have stuck with his gut and gone with the senior.  IMO.

I am also on record as saying that Ainge's success in 2004 had a large factor of luck in it and that said luck ran out in 2005.  IMO.  I am sure the injury contributed to his 05 slump, but to suggest that, as some have in the past, Ainge being pulled from a series early in 05 vs. UAB "destroyed his confidence" and led to later lack of success is questionable.  If his ego was that fragile, then by definition he was not a good QB at that point in time mentally.  IMO.

[BanditVol]

Long story short, Fulmer might still be the coach and Sanders still the OC, for good or for ill. That's a significant change.

I was one of Sanders' harshest critics, but looking back, had I known things would take the trajectory they did, particularly of the last 4-5 years, I would have argued strongly to retain him, mediocre or no.

It probably would have been best for the program to taper off a bit more gradually, as opposed to the sudden collapse when Cut left in 08.   But hindsight is 20-20 I guess.....

[VinnieVOL]

This has been my take of the last decade and a half, or at least.what it feels like:

as the 90's came to an end we were among the elite... then two pivotal events occurred.

The 2001 SECC loss was a crushing reality check that was a major speed bump to slow the juggernaut.

The injury to Ainge.  I'll never forget my buddy leaving his seat to take a call and coming back after halftime and saying "why is Rick Clausen under center?!"  I think I still had my head down in my hands.  It felt like it was all over. And indeed, I think it sparked the chain of events that sent us to the very bottom of the SEC , something I never really believed entirely possible.

It's chilling to look back on, like a tragic documentary.

[Tnphil]

I told 5 of my buddies I was with after the 2001 SECCG cluster....that loss will be the downfall of UT football as we know it. Sadly I was correct.