From past reading, the some conventional wisdom on tourney success that does not involve either typical statistics or even any statistics at all are:
1. Veteran and good point guard play. A good point guard is considered a key to tourney success. One would have to check assist and assist/turnover ratio, two things usually not included in power ratings as well as all-conference teams.
Mercer has one of the leading point guards in the country in Langston Hall. He is both their leading scorer and has one of the leading assist/turnover ratios in the country at 1.4. He also averages 5.4 assists per game, which is a lot2. Veteran team that has played together for some time.
Like us, Mercer starts or gives significant playing time to several seniors and a couple juniors.3. Height - being tall helps in the tourney.
While not as big inside as us, Mercer does have some size, and they rebound well.4. A deep bench.
Mercer's scoring and significant minutes go down to the 8th man, maybe even the 9th. They have a deep bench that definitely contributes quality minutes.5. Teams that are hot late in the season.
Mercer has not necessarily stepped it up at the end of the season, other than the upset of Duke, but they have played well all year.Those are the ones that I remember from past reading. Since the above are rarely tracked in any rankings or power polls (though some rating systems do weight recent games more heavily, I think), it might explain Mercer's low rank. That, and their weak schedule.
Scanning the above, Langston Hall is probably the biggest key to their success. I would expect Richardson to take him. This will be a very key matchup!
I see 2 as being a push, and 3 as a slight Vol advantage. I give 5 to the Vols, but Mercer did just beat Duke. 4 is obviously a glaring advantage to Mercer. Again, Richardson nullifying or limiting Hall will be a big key IMO.
Overall, I see a bit of an advantage to Mercer in these, but keep in mind the "standard ratings" make us a big favorite. I don't see this as being a blowout either way and we can definitely win.
Mercer looks a lot like Iowa actually...high scoring offense, good outside shooting combined with surprisingly (for a team that scores a lot and shoots outside) good rebounding ability. But they look like Iowa with out the late season slump.
However we have one of the best D's in the land. Should be a great game, looking forward to it.
