Latest Bracket update by Lunardi....

[Memphisvolunteer]

He said UT has soared up the standings and now is the top team of the First Four Out with Ole Miss and UK in the last four in.  If you look at the remaining schedules for each team, it could be very interesting with some difficult match-ups:

Bama - games left at UF and at Ole Miss
UK - Games left at Arkansas which Arkansas has been unbeatable at home this year, and home to UF
Ole Miss still has to play Bama at home and LSU on the road

[Clockwork Orange]

He said UT has soared up the standings and now is the top team of the First Four Out with Ole Miss and UK in the last four in.  If you look at the remaining schedules for each team, it could be very interesting with some difficult match-ups:

Bama - games left at UF and at Ole Miss
UK - Games left at Arkansas which Arkansas has been unbeatable at home this year, and home to UF
Ole Miss still has to play Bama at home and LSU on the road

We are fighting Ole Miss and Alabama for the 4th bid. Unless Kentucky falls apart I think they will be in. I think we should pull for them to beat Arkansas as that is the Razorbacks' last chance to make a statement and sneak onto the bubble. We root for Ole Miss and Alabama to both struggle in the next few games and we take care of our business.

Florida-- lock
Mizzou-- probably in
Kentucky-- probably in
Alabama-- bubble
Ole Miss-- bubble
Tennessee-- bubble
Arkansas-- outside looking in

Mizzou and Kentucky can still lose their way out but I doubt either will. Of the four teams vying for that 4th spot, I think we are clearly playing the best basketball. Let's just hope that continues.

Check out where these teams stand in Jay Coleman's Dance Card (fourth column is probability of tourney bid at this moment):

Code:

43	Missouri	0.9914	83.93%	45
44	Kentucky	0.8577	80.45%	42
45	St. Mary's	0.6209	73.27%	41
46	Temple		0.2887	61.36%	39
47	Iowa St.	0.1401	55.57%	51
48	La Salle	0.0946	53.77%	47
49	Virginia	-0.3166	37.58%	73
50	St. John's	-0.6837	24.71%	55

*** THE BUBBLE BURSTS HERE ***	
			
51	Belmont		-0.6858	24.64%	38
52	Baylor		-1.0947	13.68%	58
53	Louisiana Tech	-1.2245	11.04%	56
54	Alabama		-1.3055	9.59%	63
55	Tennessee	-1.3546	8.78%	52
56	Mississippi	-1.3607	8.68%	62		
57	Boise St.	-1.429	7.65%	53
58	Akron		-1.6316	5.14%	50
59	Southern Miss	-1.707	4.39%	48
60	Maryland	-1.782	3.74%	60
61	Arizona St.	-1.9471	2.58%	70
62	Providence	-2.3898	0.84%	74
63	Northern Iowa	-2.4875	0.64%	65
64	Brigham Young	-2.8358	0.23%	59
65	Stanford	-2.9042	0.18%	64
66	Arkansas	-2.9335	0.17%	71

(UF is at 100% btw.)

So you can see that three of us are right there together just on the outside looking in. Arkansas has a lot more work to do.

[Volznut]

SEC could get 5 teams in IMO

[Black Diamond Vol]

SEC could get 5 teams in IMO

Not a chance, unless there's a surprise SECT winner.  And even then, it's unlikely.

[Clockwork Orange]

More on this: Apparently KenPom ranking + RPI has been an excellent and simple predictor of at large bids the last three years (http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/it_might_matter_how_a_team_plays). There are still games to be played, of course, but it could be instructive to look at it now anyway. I'll also point out that the bubble line can fluctuate by a half dozen or more based on upsets in conference tournaments.

There are 37 at-large bids. If we rank all of the teams by best (RPI+KenPom) and assume the best team from each league wins the conference tournament (thus eliminating the need for at-larges among the conference winners), then we get a reasonable look at where teams fall along the bubble. When you do this, here is where UT falls and where some other key teams rank:

Code:

30	Cincinnati	BE
31	Oregon		P12
32	La Salle	A10
33	UCLA		P12
34	Iowa St.	B12
35	Southern Miss	CUSA
36	Mississippi	SEC
37	California	P12
38	Temple		A10
39	Villanova	BE
40	Tennessee	SEC
41	Boise St.	MWC
42	Baylor		B12
43	Stanford	P12
44	Iowa		B10
45	Brigham Young	WCC
46	Louisiana Tech	WAC
47	Maryland	ACC
48	Providence	BE
49	Alabama		SEC
50	Ohio		MAC
51	Indiana St.	MVC
52	Northern Iowa	MVC
53	Valparaiso	Horz
54	Massachusetts	A10
55	Air Force	MWC
56	Arkansas	SEC

That #37 team would be the last team in, assuming all conference tourneys are won by the best team. Any conference tourney upset that leads to a team BELOW that rank winning a conference title will knock the "last team in" line up one notch. So this means that right now, UT is looking like the 3rd team to miss the tourney. I think it's actually pretty remarkable how closely that resembles many of the subjective brackets like Lunardi's.

Significantly, Ole Miss is just a few notches ahead of us and IN, while Alabama and Arkansas are well below us and OUT. I would say a team would really want to be #30 or better in order to feel "safe." That leaves room for seven unforeseen upsets without knocking you out of a bid (FWIW, Mizzou gets the 19th bid and Kentucky the 26th, so they are safely in for now).

FWIW, the difference in total points between us and the #30 team is 24, so we'd need to make up that much TOTAL ground in KenPom and RPI to get there. That's a tall task but if you think about it, if we do enough to improve by 10 places in RPI than we'll probably move up several notches in KenPom because our level of play would have to be decent. We'd only need 10 total points to get to #37, and I think winning 3 more would do at least that. We still wouldn't be "safe" though.

One could analyze this crap 24/7. If someone would pay me, I'd do it.

EDIT: D'oh! Move all of those ranks up by ONE line because UConn is banned from the tourney. So we're only the 2nd team out.

[Volznut]

Not a chance, unless there's a surprise SECT winner.  And even then, it's unlikely.

I think there is a chance. This is not a great field this year

[WoodstockVol]

On the 3-5 Bracketology Lunardi has Tennessee tied at #14 seed with Villanova