|
BanditVol
|
 |
« on: October 29, 2023, 04:43:39 EDT » |
|
If Mizzou upsets uga this weekend, and we win out, then we will either be tied with uga and own the tie breaker, or be in a 3-way tie with MIzzou and uga, and be 2-0 against those two teams so again win the tiebreaker It would be like what LSU did last year in the West Like I said....there is a CHANCE   |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
"The speed of our movements is amazing, even to me, and must be a constant source of surprise to the Germans.” G. Patton
|
|
|
|
murfvol
|
|
« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2023, 07:54:09 EDT » |
|
It's nice to not be mathematically eliminated.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
"The more the words, the less the meaning, and how does that profit anyone?" - Ecclesiastes 6:11
|
|
|
|
BanditVol
|
|
« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2023, 08:48:36 EDT » |
|
So another detail....if the above scenario (uga loses to Mizzou, UT wins out) transpires, another possibility is that UF wins out, and the 3-way tie is uga, UF and UT with two SEC losses each. In that case, UF beats UT but loses to Uga, UT beats uga but loses to UF, so it would go to best division record. In which case, one of our 2 SEC losses will have been to a West team, in which case, we win! Anyway...we can still talk about this stuff today. Uga likely beats Mizzou like a rented mule and makes this more or less irrelevant. Even then, uga could still lose to both us and Ole Miss, in which case we win the tiebreaker. If UF also wins out, and there is another 3-way tie, then Division record of Uga and UT will be the same, so I think in that case, it reverts to head to head. I know this is all a long shot...but interestingly enough, if we win out and uga loses to either Ole Miss or Mizzou, the tibreakers all seem to favor us. I'll say this...it all looks very unlikely, but stranger things have happened, and both Mizzou and uga strength of schedules in the first half the season were pitiful. I think uga was 117th in the country after 6 games. Florida probably bumped that up a bit, but let's see how they do down the stretch. |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
"The speed of our movements is amazing, even to me, and must be a constant source of surprise to the Germans.” G. Patton
|
|
|
|
Jedi Master
|
|
« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2023, 12:50:31 EDT » |
|
If Mizzou upsets uga this weekend, and we win out, then we will either be tied with uga and own the tie breaker, or be in a 3-way tie with MIzzou and uga, and be 2-0 against those two teams so again win the tiebreaker It would be like what LSU did last year in the West Like I said....there is a CHANCE What?! UGA isn't going to lose to Mizzou this weekend. UGA isn't going to lose to Ole Miss the following weekend. And UGA absolutely, positively isn't going to lose to UTk on 11/18. Let's just keep it real simple. UGA isn't going to lose. (Lawd have mercy!)   |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
BanditVol
|
|
« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2023, 06:57:26 EDT » |
|
Could not help looking up uga schedule strength. Even after playing UF, it's 90th.  https://stats.ncaa.org/rankings?sport_code=MFB&division=11Mizzou SOS is 47th...I am surprised it's that high, BUT....NCAA only looks at records, and Mizzou apparently played 4 cupcakes with good records because their toughest game to date is LSU folllowed by UK. I do respect those two teams and even KSU, but other than that they played 4 garbage teams. Anyway, their game with uga will be good to watch this coming weekend. It will almost settle the East, but even if uga wins, they could still lose to us and Ole Miss. |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
"The speed of our movements is amazing, even to me, and must be a constant source of surprise to the Germans.” G. Patton
|
|
|
|
BanditVol
|
|
« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2023, 07:15:37 EDT » |
|
What?! UGA isn't going to lose to Mizzou this weekend. UGA isn't going to lose to Ole Miss the following weekend. And UGA absolutely, positively isn't going to lose to UTk on 11/18. Let's just keep it real simple. UGA isn't going to lose. (Lawd have mercy!) I think your overrated program is very likely to lose one of those three. I don't think Mizzou is likely but either Ole Miss or THE VOLS in Neyland can whip the curs. You haven't played anyone. 96th worst schedule in the country. WWFDY |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
"The speed of our movements is amazing, even to me, and must be a constant source of surprise to the Germans.” G. Patton
|
|
|
|
Coupe De VOL
|
|
« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2023, 06:02:00 EDT » |
|
So another detail....if the above scenario (uga loses to Mizzou, UT wins out) transpires, another possibility is that UF wins out, and the 3-way tie is uga, UF and UT with two SEC losses each. In that case, UF beats UT but loses to Uga, UT beats uga but loses to UF, so it would go to best division record. In which case, one of our 2 SEC losses will have been to a West team, in which case, we win! Anyway...we can still talk about this stuff today. Uga likely beats Mizzou like a rented mule and makes this more or less irrelevant. Even then, uga could still lose to both us and Ole Miss, in which case we win the tiebreaker. If UF also wins out, and there is another 3-way tie, then Division record of Uga and UT will be the same, so I think in that case, it reverts to head to head. I know this is all a long shot...but interestingly enough, if we win out and uga loses to either Ole Miss or Mizzou, the tibreakers all seem to favor us. I'll say this...it all looks very unlikely, but stranger things have happened, and both Mizzou and uga strength of schedules in the first half the season were pitiful. I think uga was 117th in the country after 6 games. Florida probably bumped that up a bit, but let's see how they do down the stretch. I don't think there is any way UF wins @LSU, so I would not worry about them winning out. It's gonna be tough for the Vols to win out as well, of course. We seem to be slightly favored @ Mizzou which sounds about right, and ESPN gives us a 1 in 3 chance of upsetting the Dawgs...which seems a little optimistic, but who knows. I will agree that it is nice that 8 games into the season we still more or less control our own destiny. Hopefully the Huskies game will be a good tuneup game instead of yet another grinder. |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BanditVol
|
|
« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2023, 01:56:51 EDT » |
|
General George Armstrong Custer had a chance too.   It's not that bad. I can actually put a number on it and will later tonight. |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
"The speed of our movements is amazing, even to me, and must be a constant source of surprise to the Germans.” G. Patton
|
|
|
|
Jedi Master
|
|
« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2023, 04:10:19 EDT » |
|
I think your overrated program is very likely to lose one of those three. I don't think Mizzou is likely but either Ole Miss or THE VOLS in Neyland can whip the curs.
You haven't played anyone. 96th worst schedule in the country. WWFDY
Overrated? Gimme a break. 25 game winning streak. 20 consecutive weeks as AP #1, and counting. Two-time defending national champion. 42-1 since UGA's last regular season loss. That last regular season loss was to UF in 2020. Since then, UGA is 22-0 against the SEC East, with an average margin of victory of 23.7 points. Resiliant: Georgia is a perfect 8-0 when trailing at any point in a game during the last two seasons. Haven't played anyone? Who have we beaten? Everyone. Who have we lost to? No one. When you are the best, it doesn't matter if the other teams are second best or 96th best. If you're not first, you're last. Dawgs by fiddy!  |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
BanditVol
|
|
« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2023, 04:59:59 EDT » |
|
Okay, so per ESPN analytics, we have a 18% chance of winning all remaining SEC games, including uga. Then uga has a 41% chance of losing to either Ole Miss or Mizzou so the combined chance of Vols being in SEC is 7.5% or about 1 in 13 Not GREAT odds, by any means, but better than Custer probably |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
"The speed of our movements is amazing, even to me, and must be a constant source of surprise to the Germans.” G. Patton
|
|
|
|
BanditVol
|
|
« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2023, 08:26:57 EDT » |
|
I don't think there is any way UF wins @LSU, so I would not worry about them winning out. It's gonna be tough for the Vols to win out as well, of course. We seem to be slightly favored @ Mizzou which sounds about right, and ESPN gives us a 1 in 3 chance of upsetting the Dawgs...which seems a little optimistic, but who knows. I will agree that it is nice that 8 games into the season we still more or less control our own destiny. Hopefully the Huskies game will be a good tuneup game instead of yet another grinder.
Given that its in Neyland in late November, and the softness of the curs schedule so far, I think 1 in 3 is about right. Incidentally, Chris Doering also thinks its too high. Which means it almost certainly is not! |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
"The speed of our movements is amazing, even to me, and must be a constant source of surprise to the Germans.” G. Patton
|
|
|
|
wtkvol
|
|
« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2023, 08:40:05 EDT » |
|
Overrated? Gimme a break. 25 game winning streak. 20 consecutive weeks as AP #1, and counting. Two-time defending national champion. 42-1 since UGA's last regular season loss. That last regular season loss was to UF in 2020. Since then, UGA is 22-0 against the SEC East, with an average margin of victory of 23.7 points. Resiliant: Georgia is a perfect 8-0 when trailing at any point in a game during the last two seasons. Haven't played anyone? Who have we beaten? Everyone. Who have we lost to? No one. When you are the best, it doesn't matter if the other teams are second best or 96th best. If you're not first, you're last. Dawgs by fiddy! many teams have had really good runs. And then they lost. All of them. |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
BanditVol
|
|
« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2023, 04:57:39 EDT » |
|
Overrated? Gimme a break. 25 game winning streak. 20 consecutive weeks as AP #1, and counting. Two-time defending national champion. 42-1 since UGA's last regular season loss. That last regular season loss was to UF in 2020. Since then, UGA is 22-0 against the SEC East, with an average margin of victory of 23.7 points. Resiliant: Georgia is a perfect 8-0 when trailing at any point in a game during the last two seasons. Haven't played anyone? Who have we beaten? Everyone. Who have we lost to? No one. When you are the best, it doesn't matter if the other teams are second best or 96th best. If you're not first, you're last. Dawgs by fiddy! Yes overrated. Haven't played anyone worth a dam, and the best teams (using the term loosely) you have played have been in Athens. I think you will beat Mizzou, they are just as overrated or maybe even more overrated than you, but I think either the Vols or Ole Miss have a legit shot at your overrated asses. And you know what? ESPN analytics agrees with me. Ole Miss is 30%, we are 34%. Those are both ~ 1 in 3. Pretty good odds actually. Oh and I forgot to add...90th in SOS. NINTEY-ITH! That's pathetic. |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
"The speed of our movements is amazing, even to me, and must be a constant source of surprise to the Germans.” G. Patton
|
|
|
|
Coupe De VOL
|
|
« Reply #14 on: November 07, 2023, 01:12:10 EST » |
|
ESPN analytics keep boosting our win chances for the next two games. If we can TCB against Mizzou and Ole Miss upsets the Dawgs, the Vols-Dawgs game will be high stakes.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
BanditVol
|
|
« Reply #15 on: November 07, 2023, 04:21:30 EST » |
|
ESPN analytics keep boosting our win chances for the next two games. If we can TCB against Mizzou and Ole Miss upsets the Dawgs, the Vols-Dawgs game will be high stakes.
Exactly! The odds are literally against that scenario, but it's not as unlikely as most think. |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
"The speed of our movements is amazing, even to me, and must be a constant source of surprise to the Germans.” G. Patton
|
|
|
|
BanditVol
|
|
« Reply #16 on: November 08, 2023, 02:12:07 EST » |
|
ESPN analytics keep boosting our win chances for the next two games. If we can TCB against Mizzou and Ole Miss upsets the Dawgs, the Vols-Dawgs game will be high stakes.
So I checked...it says we are 40% to beat the dawgs. And I know what all the mouth-drooling dawg fans says..."its just a computer". Yes, but in my experience the ESPN App is about as good as it gets...it's right about 70% of the time, and if it says 40% that's a great chance! Update...we are 23.5% to win out including uga, uga is 30.5% chance to lose to Ole Miss, combined odds of us being in SECC are now 7.7%. So a slight improvement.  Having said that, let's beat Mizzou and hope uga loses to Ole Miss, and see what it says then! Better than 40% almost for sure, so close to coin flip (i.e.50%-ish).  |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
"The speed of our movements is amazing, even to me, and must be a constant source of surprise to the Germans.” G. Patton
|
|
|
|
Jedi Master
|
|
« Reply #17 on: November 20, 2023, 03:49:55 EST » |
|
Yes overrated. Haven't played anyone worth a dam, and the best teams (using the term loosely) you have played have been in Athens.
I think you will beat Mizzou, they are just as overrated or maybe even more overrated than you, but I think either the Vols or Ole Miss have a legit shot at your overrated asses.
And you know what? ESPN analytics agrees with me. Ole Miss is 30%, we are 34%. Those are both ~ 1 in 3. Pretty good odds actually.
Oh and I forgot to add...90th in SOS. NINTEY-ITH! That's pathetic.
Ok, if you truly believe that UGA is overrated, where do believe they should be rated? Keep in mind where the coaches, the AP media, and the CFP committee have UGA rated as you make up your mind. 28 straight wins (which ties the Bear and Gene Stallings for most ever in the SEC). 43 of the last 44. Going for 3 consecutive national championships this season. When you tune in UGA football games this season, you are witnessing history being made. BTW, UGA doesn't just win because of the blue chip index. It develops its talent and coaches them on game day. Otherwise, UGA would be just another Texas A&M. Also, it now appears that Josh has a Kirby problem. When you look at Josh's high flying offense, it becomes grounded when he faces UGA's defense. The UTk scoring trend under Josh against UGA: 2021: 17 2022: 13 2023: 10 Kirby has solved Josh's offense. He is Josh's kryptonite. Josh wants to spread everyone out wide, so he can run the ball. And make people pay when they go 1x1. But UGA has the DB talent to play 1x1, unlike most others. They cover with their backs to the ball, and they tackle in space. And that allows UGA to play UT honest in the box in regards of the run game. Josh has to evolve his offense, or the results won't change. |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
VinnieVOL
|
|
« Reply #18 on: November 20, 2023, 03:56:26 EST » |
|
Ok, if you truly believe that UGA is overrated, where do believe they should be rated? Keep in mind where the coaches, the AP media, and the CFP committee have UGA rated as you make up your mind. 28 straight wins (which ties the Bear and Gene Stallings for most ever in the SEC). 43 of the last 44. Going for 3 consecutive national championships this season. When you tune in UGA football games this season, you are witnessing history being made. BTW, UGA doesn't just win because of the blue chip index. It develops its talent and coaches them on game day. Otherwise, UGA would be just another Texas A&M. Also, it now appears that Josh has a Kirby problem. When you look at Josh's high flying offense, it becomes grounded when he faces UGA's defense. The UTk scoring trend under Josh against UGA: 2021: 17 2022: 13 2023: 10 Kirby has solved Josh's offense. He is Josh's kryptonite. Josh wants to spread everyone out wide, so he can run the ball. And make people pay when they go 1x1. But UGA has the DB talent to play 1x1, unlike most others. They cover with their backs to the ball, and they tackle in space. And that allows UGA to play UT honest in the box in regards of the run game. Josh has to evolve his offense, or the results won't change.  Who doesn?t have a Kirby problem right now?  But you?re not wrong, Heuple hasn?t been able to do anything vs you guys thus far. |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
BanditVol
|
|
« Reply #19 on: November 20, 2023, 04:34:52 EST » |
|
Who doesn?t have a Kirby problem right now? But you?re not wrong, Heuple hasn?t been able to do anything vs you guys thus far. Heupel hasn't done anything against a quality SEC opponent going back to the second half of the bama game. Unfortunately. |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
"The speed of our movements is amazing, even to me, and must be a constant source of surprise to the Germans.” G. Patton
|
|
|
|
