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Title: Chances of winning out are now Post by: Clockwork Orange on November 10, 2015, 09:15:02 EST 72.8% per Massey and 72.7% per ESPN FPI. It's pretty remarkable that they're nearly identical.
Massey has us at 91% to beat Vandy, 80% to beat Missouri, and 100% to beat North Texas. In FPI, ours is the second highest probability in the country, behind Appy State's 76%. The next highest SEC school is Alabama at 27%. Title: Re: Chances of winning out are now Post by: Coupe De VOL on November 10, 2015, 09:33:24 EST Those sound like reasonable numbers.
Title: Re: Chances of winning out are now Post by: BanditVol on November 11, 2015, 06:48:20 EST 72.8% per Massey and 72.7% per ESPN FPI. It's pretty remarkable that they're nearly identical. Massey has us at 91% to beat Vandy, 80% to beat Missouri, and 100% to beat North Texas. In FPI, ours is the second highest probability in the country, behind Appy State's 76%. The next highest SEC school is Alabama at 27%. wow, that's an amazing gap I like the 27% for bammer :naughty: Title: Re: Chances of winning out are now Post by: Black Diamond Vol on November 11, 2015, 11:40:09 EST wow, that's an amazing gap I like the 27% for bammer :naughty: Well to be fair, they're probably including the SECC and playoff games for bammer. And seeing as most believe that we're punching well above our 4 loss weight class, we're likely to be a big favorite in our bowl game, no matter the opponent. Title: Re: Chances of winning out are now Post by: BanditVol on November 11, 2015, 05:18:14 EST Well to be fair, they're probably including the SECC and playoff games for bammer. And seeing as most believe that we're punching well above our 4 loss weight class, we're likely to be a big favorite in our bowl game, no matter the opponent. I doubt they include the playoff, since those teams are not selected yet. It probably does include UF as an opponent, because here are the remaining odds on a per game basis at ESPN: From ESPN.... Sat, Nov 14 @ #17 Mississippi State 58.1% Sat, Nov 21 vs Charleston Southern 99.3% Sat, Nov 28 @ Auburn 72.3% All they do is multiply the percentages together, which above leads to 41%. From which, we can figure that ESPN calculates their odds of beating uf and winning the SEC at 65%. Title: Re: Chances of winning out are now Post by: JDBVOL on November 11, 2015, 08:28:01 EST I believe that Mizzou's defense is good but I also believe that Vandy has come on strong as of late on D and that said I think the odds should be switched between Mizzou and Vandy. jmo
I believe we win out as well but just never know since we have never beat Mizzou. Title: Re: Chances of winning out are now Post by: Clockwork Orange on November 11, 2015, 08:50:49 EST I believe that Mizzou's defense is good but I also believe that Vandy has come on strong as of late on D and that said I think the odds should be switched between Mizzou and Vandy. jmo I believe we win out as well but just never know since we have never beat Mizzou. Yeah, Vandy and Mizzou are comparable teams IMO. The difference is we play @Mizzou. Title: Re: Chances of winning out are now Post by: JDBVOL on November 11, 2015, 08:56:14 EST good Point, home field does make some difference.
Title: Re: Chances of winning out are now Post by: Volznut on November 12, 2015, 08:54:46 EST Vandy beat Mizzou, so Vandy's better.
CO - 100% to beat N Texas? I understand it should be really high, but how can it be 100%? Title: Re: Chances of winning out are now Post by: Clockwork Orange on November 12, 2015, 09:10:25 EST Vandy beat Mizzou, so Vandy's better. CO - 100% to beat N Texas? I understand it should be really high, but how can it be 100%? Rounding, I guess. Massey rounds to the nearest percent. North Texas might be the worst FBS team-- Massey ranks them #204 and there are only 128 FBS teams. Title: Re: Chances of winning out are now Post by: Creek Walker on November 12, 2015, 09:23:53 EST Rounding, I guess. Massey rounds to the nearest percent. North Texas might be the worst FBS team-- Massey ranks them #204 and there are only 128 FBS teams. Honestly, this is a game where we could sit every first string player and still win by 4-5 touchdowns. They're terrible. They have played somewhat better since firing their coach and appointing an interim, but they still gave up 56 to LaTech. |