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Take a look at aTm's recruiting classes in the last 5 years. Then compare them to Kansas State's.

KS beats aTm 33-28. If you look at the classes it's not even close. Talentwise, they shouldn't even be playing in the same bowl. The difference here was coaching. KSU has a great hall of fame type of coach. aTm has Sumlin.

2016:   aTm 17       KSU  76
2015:   aTm 11       KSU  39
2014:   aTm 6         KSU  47
2013:   aTm 11       KSU  65
2012:   aTm 15       KSU  62

source: rivals.com

Other than Saban, the SEC doesn't have an elite coach. And it shows on the field.

It's a very short list of coaches who compare favorably to Bill Snyder on gameday.   In the areas of X's and O's, player development, and just doing more with less, he's probably the best I've ever seen.  Given equal talent, I don't think even Saban or Meyer could beat him. 

But recruiting is a big part of the equation, too.  And that's where he's falling short.  Back in the 90's when Snyder had KSU contending for NCs, he relied very heavily on jucos.  Probably more than any other coach, in fact.  As a result, he always had a roster full of upperclassmen. He also took a lot of academic and character risks that many other schools couldn't/wouldn't.  With today's tougher academic and APR standards, coaches can't go that route anymore.  That's why KSU is still good, but not great like they used to be.

Given the choice between a great coach/so-so recruiter or a decent coach/great recruiter, I'll take the latter every time.

Coaching absolutely matters...but in hiring one, there are generally a lot more misses than hits. That's the nature of it.  By definition not everyone can be a great coach, and a coach who is on top for a while can slip.