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and lose to Bama and LSU, but those game will be close - hear me out.

SC and UGA are playing poor defense, and have pretty good offenses (SC has a better one). We have them both at home. UT's team this year will score on teams like SC and UGA. The SC game will be a shootout, and I think if we can get them to make a few mistakes we can win. UGA isn't that good and we should win at home.

LSU and Bama. No doubt we will not run the ball at all against them, which usually means loss. Neither team scores a lot of points - vanilla power running offenses. They'll likely beat us by a TD, but the games will be close enough.

Think we can still go about 8-4.

If this team goes 8-4, Dooley should be the national coach of the year.

I think 7-6 more probable.  I agree their is a higher probability that we beat uga.  USCe I put more like 50/50, at best. 

Assuming wins over UK and Vandy, I think UGA is our best shot to pick up a win more than six, and USCe is our best shot after that. But while I think we have a reasonable shot at beating UGA, I'm not at all confident about the Carolina game. USC's defense is better than it has shown so far and you can bet Spurrier will have the offense playing up to its capability by the time we get into late October.

Frankly, I think we'll get beat like a drum by Alabama. LSU I think will be somewhat closer because it's a home game and because their offense won't score many against us, but I don't think there's much of a chance of winning that one.

I think Tennessee will neuter the Bulldogs this season. Georgia will be 5-7 or 6-6 at best(Vandy is pretty good and could trip Georgia up) and Richt could very well be shown the door at the end of the season.

OTOH, with some exceptions, SOS also seems to screw up his QBs heads as the season goes along.

Until we find a way to run the football, i'm not convinced that we can beat anybody in the SEC other than Kentucky.  Give SEC defensive coordinators an opportunity to prepare for a one dimensional offense, and even Peyton Manning has trouble being successful. 

I understand being optomistic, but being blindly optomistic is quite another thing. 

Bray was fortunate that he didn't have several more passes picked.  If we are going to be one dimensional, we have to be near perfect in the passing game, and we are far from being that, and especially now that our best receiver is out for the season.

And then there is that thing about special teams play, but I don't even want to get in to that discussion right now.   :frown:

I don't think 7-6 or 8-4 can really be called "blindly optimistic". Anything above that I would say is blind optimism.

Right now I think LSU, Alabama, and Arkansas are sure losses and SC is 50/50. I still think we will beat UGa. I'm not buying the Vandy hype until they beat somebody worth a damn and yes I know we haven't done that either but we are Tennessee and they are Vanderbilt.

If we lose to UGa, I will be very depressed because that will be when I will recognize that we are missing a bowl.

I understand what you are saying, and I guess it's just a difference of opinion.  I don't believe our chances against SC are anywhere near 50/50 at this point.  Our talent level just isn't there yet. 

I've said all along that 7-5 would be likely, if we got a couple of breaks.  So far we haven't with the loss of Hunter being the primary factor.  I just can't get past the lack of a running game, however.  You don't have to have a great running game to win in the SEC, but you have to do better than a net -9 yards - you have to at least be able to run the ball with some success when you need yards.   

To be clear, I don't think we are going 8-4 because that means that we would have to beat Arky on the road. I say 7-5 with losses to LSU, Alabama, Arkansas, and either SC or UGa. It could be 6-6 again though.

I actually agree with you overall, I just don't like the term "blind optimism". That's all. Blind optimism is "We're winning out!!" JMO.

Gotcha. 

50/50 that we beat Georgia. And that's if we play lights out now that Hunter is gone.

South Carolina has the potential to run up the score on us.

CW

I thought 8-4 was the ceiling for this team all along. Obviously that has changed now. 6-6 is a more likely scenario right now.

Running game is weak but prior to saturdasy I thought it looked a bit better than last year.  Its worth pointing out that we had some success on our first drive and that we completely abandoned it at some point.  Looking forward to seeing if we can improve vs. Uganda.

OTOH, we essentially abandoned the running game about a third of the way into the game Saturday.

OK, take away the -49 yards in losses - which of course you can't, and we still only rushed for 40 yards.   40 yards.  That's worse than awful.   

Why? we can lose to Arky, Bama, and LSU and still go 8-4

Our defense and run game is a problem yes, but SC and GA haven't been stopping anyone. FL, LSU, and Bama can stuff our run games, I don't see anything SC or UGA has done to think they will stuff it. We won't run wild, but we can run some, and if we do, we can beat them.

Ummmm, because as you quoted, Bossman believes the Vols will lose to either the Dawgs or Cocks ("with losses to LSU, Alabama, Arkansas, and either SC or UGa."  So, with the Florida loss added, it's 7-5.  I think he knows that it could be 8-4; he just doesn't think so.   :wink:

The issue is that South Carolina can run the footbal and control the clock.  We only managed 128 yards rushing against Montana, and 126 against Cincinnati.  Do you really believe that a team that can't run against those two is going to be able to run it against South Carolina and their upper half SEC talent?   I just don't see it happening.  

With UT's lack of running game, the opposition doesn't have to stuff it.  They just have to be aware of it.  They can still play pass defense and limit the running game.    

I thought it was pretty simple.  :hi5:

How ya doing TRO?  Hope the pain meds are working their magic!

Agree. We will see what Florida did last weekend every weekend without a running game and I fear we are drifting closer and closer to a "Hal Mumme" type offense. We have 2-3 weeks to come up with Plan B in regards to running the football because run plays from the "I" or 2-TE sets are not effective. We have to think of extensions of the running game by having designed dump downs, flares, and screens to the backs/WR to open things up, or Bray better get a protective vest.

I've seen this comment a couple of times. No offense, but it doesn't even make sense. There isn't the slightest bit of resemblance between what Tennessee is running and a "Hal Mumme" offense.

I say 6 wins are realistic.  I am optimistic and say 7.  I'm not setting myself up to think we will win 8.  I think we beat Vandy and Ky.  I think we will be huge underdogs to LSU, bama and Ark.  I think we will be solid underdogs to SCe (they have the best pass rush in the conference and Lattimore) and I think we will have to play much better than we have so far to beat Georgia.  Georgia may very well be the most rapidly improving team in the country right now.  By the time we play them they won't resemble the team that got ran over by Bosie.  They have better line talent and more depth than we do.  If we can win that game I'll be thrilled.

That is why I put it in quotes. Having to throw 40-50 times a game to move the ball is my concern.

Okay. That make sense. If that's where we're headed, it's worth noting that there are a lot of teams in college football that are pass-happy with a lot of success. I don't think it's fair to pass up all those comparisons for a Mumme the Dumme comparison. In any event, I see it as a temporary thing. You play with your strengths. Dooley has only had two recruiting classes, which isn't enough time to build a team. In the meantime our strengths are our quarterback and our receivers, so that's what gives us a chance to win. Which is the same thing you were saying I guess, except I don't think we're moving closer and closer to being a pass-only team. As our offensive linemen mature, we should be able to run the football more.

Georgia started 0-2 and then blew away Coastal Carolina.  You could say they gave USCe a good game, but that game is always close and USCe struggled at home vs. Navy this past weekend.  What in any of that makes uga  " one of the most rapidly improving teams in the country"?  That's a real head scratcher to me.   :confused: