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Title: Interesting win probabilities from Ken Massey
Post by: Clockwork Orange on October 03, 2011, 05:38:49 EDT

Note that the schedule is in reverse and that any game not yet played has a win probability instead of a result . . . his system basically thinks that South Carolina and UGA are coin tosses but we are slight favorites at home; we have a chance at Arkansas on the road; we should chalk up Alabama and LSU as losses; Vandy, UK, and MTSU are highly likely to be wins. Add up expected values and Massey sees 4.4 more wins . . . so 7-5 or 8-4. That's probably a hair more optimistic than most Vol fans right now.

Code:

Date		        Opponent		Rk	W	L	Result	PF	PA
Sat 11/26/11	at	Kentucky		86	0	0	88 %	33	17	
Sat 11/19/11		Vanderbilt		52	0	0	87 %	31	17	
Sat 11/12/11	at	Arkansas	        11	0	0	37 %	31	34	
Sat 11/05/11		Middle Tenn St		135	0	0	99 %	47	16	
Sat 10/29/11		South Carolina		15	0	0	56 %	31	28	
Sat 10/22/11	at	Alabama			1	0	0	4 %	14	38	
Sat 10/15/11		LSU			2	0	0	16 %	21	34	
Sat 10/08/11		Georgia			19	0	0	57 %	31	28	
Sat 10/01/11		Buffalo			131	0	0	W	41	10	
Sat 09/17/11	at	Florida			10	0	0	L	23	33	
Sat 09/10/11		Cincinnati		41	0	0	W	45	23	
Sat 09/03/11		Montana			141	0	0	W	42	16

Title: Re: Interesting win probabilities from Ken Massey
Post by: Clockwork Orange on October 03, 2011, 05:56:00 EDT

Oh man, Massey's site can be fun. There's a little tool where you can see the probability distribution function for the margin, the total points, and each team's points. According to that, the median score for the UT-UGA game is 31-28, UT (as in, there's a 50% chance above and below those scores for each team). I believe he comes up with the distributions via repeated simulations.

Of note:

* He gives us a 20% chance of scoring more than 40 points; UGA has a little under 15% chance of doing the same.
* He gives us a 5% chance of holding UGA to two TDs or less; UGA has a 3% chance of doing this to us.
* He gives us a 29% chance of winning by more than a TD, and UGA a 20% chance. Thus, there is a 51% chance that the game will be decided by a TD or less.

Title: Re: Interesting win probabilities from Ken Massey
Post by: Clockwork Orange on October 03, 2011, 06:04:58 EDT

Okay, I know the above two posts were dorky and I may be the only one who enjoys that sort of thing . . . but this is a pretty cool function Massey puts on his site as well-- a schedule map:

http://masseyratings.com/map.php?s=107811&t=7801 (http://masseyratings.com/map.php?s=107811&t=7801)

Title: Re: Interesting win probabilities from Ken Massey
Post by: Clockwork Orange on October 03, 2011, 06:19:34 EDT

I'll just continue talking to myself to highlight one more feature. I'll just call this the MTWHBYTB (My Team Would Have Beaten Your Team Because) function. I did last year for Tennessee beating Ohio State and got this:

Code:

2010-11-27 @ Tennessee               24    Kentucky                14          
2010-10-16 @ Kentucky                31    South Carolina          28          
2010-10-09 @ South Carolina          35    Alabama                 21          
2011-01-01   Alabama                 49    Michigan St              7  P       Capital One Bowl Orlando FL
2010-10-02 @ Michigan St             34    Wisconsin               24          
2010-10-16 @ Wisconsin               31    Ohio St                 18          

By transitivity, this 6 game path shows that Tennessee dominates Ohio St by 92 points.

:laugh:

Title: Re: Interesting win probabilities from Ken Massey
Post by: PirateVOL on October 03, 2011, 06:31:52 EDT

Quote from: Clockwork Orange on October 03, 2011, 06:19:34 EDT

Code:

2010-11-27 @ Tennessee               24    Kentucky                14          
2010-10-16 @ Kentucky                31    South Carolina          28          
2010-10-09 @ South Carolina          35    Alabama                 21          
2011-01-01   Alabama                 49    Michigan St              7  P       Capital One Bowl Orlando FL
2010-10-02 @ Michigan St             34    Wisconsin               24          
2010-10-16 @ Wisconsin               31    Ohio St                 18          

By transitivity, this 6 game path shows that Tennessee dominates Ohio St by 92 points.

:laugh:

You sir, require some serious help ... :beer:
I'll check Massey's site when I get home this evening

Title: Re: Interesting win probabilities from Ken Massey
Post by: BanditVol on October 03, 2011, 07:21:55 EDT

CO...that's very interesting. Because his calculations for USCe, uga and Arkansas match my subjective impressions of those games based on watching them all play other teams.

I guess I am a dork also, as I find this very interesting. :thumbup:

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