So let me get this straight.  The Gruden rumors bought Dooley time, and took the heat off him? 

 

No Vinnie.   They were real.   Gruden is really going to give up a $4 million a year gig on Monday Night Football, one of the softest, most cushy jobs in the world, to come to Knoxville and try to satisfy...people like you.

 

Now THAT would be     

But to answer your question...they bought HART time.  Not Dooley. 

That's my hunch, I hope it continues to amuse you.  You know I don't take this stuff personally.  So I invite all to mock it.  We'll see how accurate it ends up, I guess.

If only it had been just one year of mediocrity . . .

There has yet to be a year of mediocrity.  The last three years have been shizzle, actually.  You might qualify 2009 as mediocre, but then you have two MISERABLE seasons in a row.

So mediocrity, defined as 8-5 and a bowl win, is a significant improvement over 5-7 and losing to Kentucky, regardless of what anyone says about style points or quality of victories.  A W is a W! 

According to the latest Real Clear Politics "poll of polls", Obama leads Romney for the popular vote.  All Real Clear does is average the latest X number of polls. 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

The tally is 48.8% to 48.1%, which leaves 3.1% points up for grabs.  Of that, roughly one percent typically goes to minor third party candidates, at a minimum (last election it was 1.6% but Nader had some name recognition).

Of the remaining 2.1%, they say the undecideds usually break 2-1 for the challenger.  Thus, Romney picks up 1.4% and Obama 0.7%.

Do the math, and the final result should be Obama 49.5%, Romney 49.5%!  A statistical dead heat in the popular vote.  If the third party vote is > 1%, then slight advantage to Obama, if it's <1%, slight advantage to Romney.

As for the electoral vote, I predict 281 to 259 for Obama.  I base it on the following.  Currently I think Obama, per Real Clear, has a 201 to 191 advantage in states that are "locks" (my term, Real Clear is a bit more nuanced).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Of the states supposedly still in play per Real Clear, I concede Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to Obama, and North Carolina  to Romney.  These are states where the advantage of the candidate exceeds the margin of error of the polls, and I think they go the way they are leaning.

That brings the total to Obama 247, Romney 206.

Next, there are the states that have the margin much greater than 1%, coupled with a qualitative analysis of how I think they will go.  This gives Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Iowa to Obama, while Florida then goes to Romney.  My qualitative analysis is that the North favors Obama, the South Romney, that Nevada has gamblers, drug addicts and prostitutes (a Democrat base) vs. casino workers (Mormons from Utah but way outnumbered) and that the Midwest (Iowa, Ohio) has a base of populist blue collar workers and farmer that don't take kindly to Romney's "47%" remark (based on living in Indiana for 15 years and how the polls broke after that remark...5-7% jump for Obama across the Midwest, not erased by his horrible Debate 1 performance).

That gets us to Obama 281, Romney 235.

That leaves just Colorado and Virginia, which have a < 2 % advantage for Obama.  However, I am willing to concede those two to Romney.  I consider them a toss up, and my guess...which is all it is....is that since the South and West culturally are much stronger for Romney, they will break his way at the end of the day.

That gets us to the grand total of Obama 281, Romney 259.

Now, this also means that the story out there about Ohio is still true.  If the rest of my analysis is correct, and Ohio, which is just barely inside the margin of error for Obama (it's 2.9% for Obama and the margin is usually about 3%), then Romney could still just barely take it, 277-263, if Ohio flips.  But of course, he would have to hold on to Colorado and Virginia in that case, and I already said those two were coin flips that I concede to Romney based on a pretty weak assumption.

Make no mistake, it will be razor-close either way, but the likely outcome is a narrow victory for Obama.

This is not a partisan prediction, just issued for fun.

I have been following the polls since April, and closely for the last two months, and I think I have some insight, so I might as well post it here. 

I think you are right, assuming he wins out. If I was Dooley, I would be making the following arguments:

1) In 3 years, I have built the most prolific offense in the history of the school;
2) We have issues on defense because our DC and LB coach left the program to return closer to their home in the PAC12;
3) We hired a new DC from Alabama with everyone on board, including Hart, as he gave a wondeful recomendation for the hire;
4) However, it did not work out and I will be addressing this issue after the season;
5) In the meantime, we will work to land Green, North, Bell, and other SEC athletes that this team still lacks, maintain our discipline, and continue to improve our academic progress.

Not saying it will work, but that would be my stance.

And it's not a totally unreasonable one, not at all.

And those of us that are saying this, will hardly tolerate the current situation forever.   Definitely not any longer than this year.  But IMO one year of mediocrity in transition to something better, is acceptable.  Those who argue against that suggest they have no confidence in the future, but a counter to that is "there are no moral losses".  Eight wins is eight wins, I don't care how we get there, and that was my standard in August and I am sticking with it. 

Because as a lot of people tell me...it's all about the W's and L's.  And I don't particularly care who the W's come against.  A W is a W and an L is a L!     

I think the DL has improved under Palermo.  Conklin, maybe IMO.

I know Conklin is suposed to be a young up and comer but he is in the box calling down to Sal and frankly I think the kids are not being put in the proper formation/positions a lot of the time and he has to share the credit/blame for that.

I haven't seen anything out of Ansley or his players that give me confidence.

I agree Palermo has done the only close to good job.  Ansley...nothing against the guy, but he coached DBs at Bammer, and as every bammer fan will be quick to tell you, SABAN coaches the DBs at bammer.  That's his background, and he's hands on.

So in spite of the excellant secondary bammer had while Ansley was there in 2010 and 2011 (all the starters that graduated are in the NFL!), it was likely Saban and not Ansley.  Agree that Conklin would be the other guy to keep other than Palermo...safety play has, IMO, been better than CB.

Bandit, you keep saying you have a hunch but never tell what that hunch is, which is funny.  Why don't you enlighten all of us about what your "hunch" is.  Why be so close to the vest about it anyway?

See my reply to Stogie...and feel free to laugh at why I didn't articulate it. 

What is your hunch?  Anyone can claim that things are progressing exactly according to his hunch if he doesn't make his hunch known up front.

Sigh.  Well, I haven't made it clear because...feel free to laugh me off the board...if I am right, it gives the people who have been pressing for a change since essentially last December open lines of attack, if in fact, I am correct.

I have no illusions, none whatever, that I affect things at all.  It's just, if I am right, then I think Hart is playing it very intelligently and I don't want to tip his hand.

But go ahead and laugh at my pretension, and I will go ahead and spill the beans.

My hunch is that Hart has been playing for time all along.  The central piece of evidence is the Assistant Coach contracts.  Hart was intimately involved in those, in fact, he is the signature authority, and so he obviously had two years in mind when he signed them!  (in case you didn't read my two posts below, 7 of our ACs have a two year contract through the end of 2013).  Not only is he smart enough to figure out that we might get 2 of our 3 offensive stars back next year, it gives Sunseri a whole year to get his shizzle together.  We might struggle a bit on D this year, but be pretty good next year, probably compete for the East title and get Dooley to his fifth year.  If Dooley fails next year, very easy to pull the trigger and do a re-start with essentially an all new cast on offense in 2014.  Then the fanbase is patient with the new coach.  Or so he thought.  Unfortunately, the Suneri hire is an EPIC FAIL.  But....

All you have to do is look at how the contracts are structured. 

The other piece of evidence is the comments Hart made right before South Carolina.  He basically said he wasn't happy with the performance on the field while mentioning financial difficulties in the AD.  At the time, I thought that meant simply that he was keeping his options open depending on the performance the rest of the way, but he definitely opened the door to either course of action.  Others interpreted this as a sure sign that Dooley was getting fired the Monday after the USCe game, at which I actually LOL'd privately.

Next piece of evidence...his anger at the MSU game.  He desperately wanted Dooley to beat a ranked team, any ranked team, so that his plan could stay on schedule.  When the best chance for that failed, he knew that a shizzlety two months lay ahead.  Wouldn't wanna be him right now!

Final piece of evidence...Revolver actually cued me in to this when he said the Gruden rumors were the most coherent football internet rumors he had ever seen.  I checked around, and completely agreed with that observation.  This suggested to me a deliberate leak by Hart.  Why?  To distract the fanbase!  To give Dooley time to get into November, win 4 in a row, go to a bowl and make it for one more year.  Particularly when I learned that Gruden made $4 million a year at ESPN, there is no way he would contemplate going to a hot seat college job for a relatively small raise.  Would anyone in their right mind?  Which says that the Gruden rumors were never serious to begin with, which says that Hart is still hoping to hold on to Dooley one more year...OR pursue his real target, which could be someone named at the end of the year (Strong would be my choice).

Think about it...this site and others I checked were so giddy with the prospect of Gruden that no one cared we had a game against USCe or bammer.  It pretty much distracted the fanbase for nearly two weeks!  Brilliant move, IYAM.

So that's my hunch, for what it's worth.  Recent leaks about Cheek saying Dooley stays if he wins out only re-enforce my belief in my hunch.

But ICBW...

On the off chance that I got it completely right, I might just be effing Hart up.  But he's a big boy, he can handle it.

Whatever the case, whether Hart has another target in mind or he is willing to keep Dooley another year, primarily for financial reasons, the part that makes me glad is that whatever he is doing, he is taking his time and resisting the urge to "make a splash" or wow the more vocal and impatient part of our fanbase. 

So I am very happy with Hart, at this point in time.

I could be completely wrong about all of the above.  It's just a hunch, that I have held since the MSU game aftermath, but nothing has convinced me yet that I am offbase.
 

So? If you, me, or any of us is right about how this plays out.. It's because of pure luck.  None of us really knows what's going on behind the scenes.

No argument here, that's pretty much why I am stressing it's a hunch.  But it is based on observation.  See response to Stogie.

LOL! "have a little patience"  Hey, why don't we just give him a contract extension for all his moral victories?  After all, progress!

If you can't get close, you can't win the next one.  Logic!  Not a favorite of SEC football fans.   

And FTR, regardless who our corch is next year, I think we can beat uga and USCe at home.  We almost took them both on the road this year and they both lose quite a bit...don't know for sure that Murray is going pro though, so I will tie it to him being out for sure.  Feel free to save this post and ridicule me mercilessly if I am wrong.  I stand by it.   

committed they are to the program.

See if you can make it up to the box and help ole Sal.  You can't do any worse, literally!   

Glad you can make it to a game.   

Troy's QB is a future NFL QB, therefore Troy gaining over 700 yds on UT is quite acceptable under the circumstances. We just all need to understand that, "You don't turn on your family"! Besides, Dooley's now gonna sit in on the D meetings.

http://www.utsports.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/110512aag.html

To be clear, the only actual quote is "you don't turn on your family".  The entire presser is in the link.  The other words are strictly from TnBama.

And Vinnie..he is being VERY sarcastic!  Were you being sarcastic about him being sarcastic?  How could you miss the sarcasm?   

And FTR, here is the entire quote, in context:

"The team, all the way back to last January, just made a commitment that we are going to be a team and we are going to be together. That kind of commitment can't be only when things are good. You don't turn on your family when they do bad things or they do something that might upset you. You might be hurt and disappointed, you might get angry, but you don't turn on them."

I really don't have a problem with him saying that, and in spite of the shizzlety play, it doesn't appear that there are any locker room issues.  Which is a good thing, because no matter who the corch is next year, we are getting most of these guys back.  Also, to his credit, Dooley is not throwing players under the bus this year like he did last.  There have still been some catty comments, but for the most part he cleaned it up.

None of which means that I am happy with where this team is, or how our D is playing, etc.  Just thought it might help to have the actual transcript.

It's also possible this is just another smokescreen. 

Or that a range of options are being considered, depending on how it goes from here.

Again, FWIW, this is all playing out so far based on a hunch I have, which is just that, a hunch.  But so far....

Only 2-1, huh?  Name another profession where two thirds of your customers are dissatisfied and you keep your job.

I'm not the "only one" is what I am saying, and it's not even close.

And FTR, I have not advocated keeping Dooley.  Not at all, not earlier in the season, and not now.

Right or wrong, my take is that we need to have some measure of success this season regardless of who the coach is.  Get rid of Dooley prematurely, and you almost guarantee a losing season and no bowl.

If we win out, including the bowl game, then we achieve our first 8-win season and bowl victory since 2007, which is an achievement.  Not the achievement any long-time Vol wants, but significantly better than the last four years. 

I still want that to happen.  And if that doesn't get Dooley fired on the schedule of some of our more desperate fanbase, then so be it.

If true, what an all time low 2013 will be.  Recruiting is in the gutter.  The fan base (all but Bandit) has completely given up on Dooley.  Dooleyball is an utter embarrassment and for the life of me I can't understand why the powers that be want to prolong the inevitable.  Just get it over with!  There is ZERO reason to let the season play out.  There's nothing left to play out!

I tell you, the perfect picture of Dooleyball was in the second quarter when Dooley had to take a time out on Troy's FG attempt so that he could count the number of players on the field.  Troy then goes for it and scores a TD, and the door was opened for them.   

LOL!  There are far more than me.  Recent polls on other sites indicate a 2-1 split against Dooley. 

I agree about the timeout.  Wondered if anyone else noticed that.  That was in fact pretty bad.

Fire the coach after Florida, like some of you wanted, and it would almost certainly be the worst season of Vol football next year.  I doubt we sniff 500.  Have a little patience....

So you're predicting Bama will not stay on top for all eternity?  Wow, you're really making a bold prediction, there. 

For Saban's tenure they won't be on top much longer...not eternity, I hope, though if there is a hell for Vol fans that sounds like it. LOL!

They could easily still screw the pooch this year, whether Saturday, in the SECCG (I actually give Tamu a better chance than uga  with their easy schedule  ), or against Oregon in the MNC.  I am pretty confident they will, in fact, so no need to wait for eternity.   

Will return for 2013 with a new defensive coordinator and a few defensive position coaches.

No hard evidence, just piecing together the rumors.

FWIW, a poster on another site claims to have talked to Haslem SR at a charity event and asked him if Gruden was coming.  Haslem reportedly laughed for 30 seconds and then said "the season isn't over yet".

Take it FWIW, probably not much, but if top boosters and/or the admin are taking the position of waiting for the season to play out, then I at least am pleased, because in spite of being accused of being a "doolaid drinker" this has been my position all along.

I haven't really taken a hard position that Dooley needs to be back next year, just that I prefer for the season to play out and then make a reasoned decision at the end.

Having said that, the option you cite, IMO, would not be the end of the world to me, but I am on record as saying that due to the extreme circumstances of Kiffin screwing us, it's not unreasonable to allow four years. 

Bandit, even if Saban is burned ot (he doesn't appear to be to me), he has built that program up to where even if he leaves, unless they hire a total goofball, they will continue to have success.

For awhile.  But will they keep winning 2 of every 3 MNCs?  I doubt it.  Pete Carroll looked like he could do it at USCw, but they had declined even before he finally got caught cheating.  And my views on that part of it are  well known....

Yes, USCw was still in the mix every year, but they didn't really sniff an MNC between 2006 and 2008 when the shizzle hit the fan.  And thus goes bammer....IMO.

This year seems ripe for, if nothing else, a loss in the MNC game.  Like USCw in 2005 or New England-Giants I.   

In the meantime, Aggie up! 

Is TWSS?  

Seriously?  You went there?  I had to check my calendar to see if it was still 1988.  

Effing cowboys.  I needed them to win for fantasy football.

I think that's more like the "3 and in"   

Hate to tell you this, but we're a heck of lot more like Vandy right now than the schools we once called our "peers".  And unless there's a change at the top, it's only going to get worse.

Oh, I'm well aware of that, but I hope that no matter how bad we get, we don't stoop to supporting the team as badly as Vandy.   

Don't forget, he also thinks Saban is on the decline.   

Burned out.  I said he looked burned out last year.  I also said no team can stay on top and have the success bammer is having forever.  LSU just about punctured their balloon last night.  I don't think they are a shoo-in to repeat this year at all.  Guess we'll find out.

But I'm not at all surprised you would have that reaction.  When a team is on top, everyone just assumes that they will keep winning.  There was a point in the 90s when no one thought Osbourne would ever lose, right up to the point that Arizona State, a three TD underdog, beat them.  It will happen to Saban also. Probably this season.....and yes, I will stick my neck out and predict that.   

You weren't impressed with Kiffin, who played No. 1 Alabama to the wire with a chance at a game-winning field goal, and beat South Carolina AND Georgia, yet you've typed approximately 50,000 words in defense of Dooley, who hasn't sniffed a win against either South Carolina or Georgia, let alone Alabama or any other SEC team that was anything more than a conference cellar-dweller.  FTR, I was happy to see Kiffin leave. Not in the fashion he did it, and definitely not with the stunts he pulled on his way out the door, but I thought UT would be better off in the long run. And I'm still not convinced that it wasn't for the best, although the three seasons since he left have been miserable. But Kiffin could coach circles around Dooley.

I never said I was totally unimpressed.  Just not as impressed as some.  To listen to some, he was bringing the program back.  But we were 7-6...barely an improvment over Fulmer's last year.  Understand that I am contrasting him with Fulmer and saying I don't see a huge improvement.

Dooley did not inherit the situation that Kiffin did, it was much worse.  I have never typed a single word in "defense of Dooley".  I think that's a common misunderstanding of my POV.  If you can find one post where I say "cut DOOLEY some slack" or "DOOLEY is actually a pretty good coach" or even "we need to stick with DOOLEY" then point it out by all means.  (The caps are because I actually almost never use his name - my posts are about the TEAM).

I never have, and never will. In fact, I don't think Dooley is that great a coach.  In spite of that, I see improvement from last year that I don't think is properly credited.  Particularly our Oline and run game improved 100%+.  Notice that I haven't been stressing that as much lately...because our suckage on D pretty much overshadows how well our offense is improved.  Unfortunately. 

I'm surprised...he threw two INT's in a row and put the game in jeopardy.  I actually wondered if he would be featured.  I guess they learned their lesson last time.   

Ed Orgeron, Ole Miss 2005-2007 (4-20), Joker Phillips, KY 2010-2012 (4-19), Derek Dooley, TN 2010-2012 (4-17)

So he has a chance to surpass them this weekend.