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Author Topic: Building the case for 12-team playoff  (Read 12238 times)
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Clockwork Orange
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« on: December 03, 2012, 03:27:22 EST »

Woodstock's playoff poll got me thinking about the 12-team format I've advocated for a few years now. Because I'm bored and because I like to research things like this, I'm going to build the case for it by looking at who the field would have been for each year in the BCS era, starting with 1998. Each will be in its own post. I'm hoping this will spur some interesting discussion not only about the format but about the seasons in question (many of which featured Tennessee teams that were far more fun to talk about than this one).

I think the selection of at-large teams is up for debate, but for simplicity I'll assume they are the highest ranked non-AQ teams. I'll also insert the rule than a non-AQ conference champ must be included if they finish in the top 15 of the BCS. AQ conferences are the BCS leagues . . . SEC, ACC, Big Ten, Big XII, PAC-10, Big East.

Stay tuned.
« Last Edit: December 03, 2012, 06:51:40 EST by TheRealOrange » Logged

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« Reply #1 on: December 03, 2012, 03:35:57 EST »

1998

Final BCS Standings:


Code:
1 Tennessee 12-0
2 Florida State 11-1
3 Kansas State 11-1
4 Ohio State 10-1
5 UCLA 10-1
6 Texas A&M 11-2
7 Arizona 11-1
8 Florida 9-2
9 Wisconsin 10-1
10 Tulane 11-0
11 Nebraska 9-3
12 Virginia 9-2
13 Arkansas 9-2
14 Georgia Tech 9-2
15 Syracuse 8-3

Auto qualifiers:   Tennessee, Florida State, Texas A&M, Syracuse, Wisconsin, UCLA

At-large:   Kansas State, Ohio State, Arizona, Florida, Tulane, Nebraska

Does anyone with a beef get left out?

No. There are no other teams in the top 15 of the BCS with less than 2 losses. The only other non-AQ school with a “great” season is Air Force at 11-1, but there are a ton of better qualified teams and a non-AQ team (Tulane) more deserving of the shot.

Do additional teams with gripes in the current and future format get an opportunity?

Yes. In this case there were four teams with a legitimate complaint that they should have gotten in over FSU: Ohio State, Kansas State, UCLA, and Tulane. I never heard anybody make an argument for Arizona or Wisconsin but they each only had one loss. All are included in the 12-team playoff. A 4- or 8- team playoff probably still leaves out Tulane, the only other unbeaten team besides Tennessee.

Do undeserving teams get in?

Yes, two. Florida and Nebraska had 2+ losses in a year where there were 10 teams with one loss or less. Syracuse and Texas A&M are debatable (esp. Syracuse in the Big East with no title game) but they won their AQ league.
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« Reply #2 on: December 03, 2012, 03:50:53 EST »

1999

Final BCS Standings:

Code:
1 Florida State 11-0
2 Virginia Tech 11-0
3 Nebraska 11-1
4 Alabama 10-2
5 Tennessee 9-2
6 Kansas State 10-1
7 Wisconsin 9-2
8 Michigan 9-2
9 Michigan State 9-2
10 Florida 9-3
11 Penn State 9-3
12 Marshall 12-0
13 Minnesota 8-3
14 Texas A&M 8-3
15 Texas 9-4

Auto qualifiers: Virginia Tech, Stanford, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Florida State, Alabama

At-large: Tennessee, Kansas State, Michigan, Michigan State, Marshall, Minnesota

Does anyone with a beef get left out?

No. There are no other teams in the top 15 of the BCS with less than 3 losses and no other non-AQ teams with a strong argument.

Do additional teams with gripes in the current and future format get an opportunity?

Yes. With the top two being undefeated, I think the only real argument any other team had was Marshall, who was also undefeated. They get an opportunity in this format and definitely would not in a 4-team playoff, but possibly would in an 8-team playoff (with KSU being the only other team with less than 2 losses).

Do undeserving teams get in?

Perhaps the three 2-loss non-conference champs: Tennessee, Michigan, and Michigan State. This is debatable, as it was a year with few 0- or 1-loss teams. EDIT: Stanford was the PAC-10 Champ at 8-4 with no championship game. They definitely didn't "deserve" a chance at a title but got in as an AQ champ.

« Last Edit: December 03, 2012, 06:49:03 EST by Clockwork Orange » Logged

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« Reply #3 on: December 03, 2012, 04:10:20 EST »

2000

Final BCS Standings:

Code:
1 Oklahoma 12-0
2 Florida State 11-1
3 Miami (Fla.) 10-1
4 Washington 10-1
5 Virginia Tech 10-1
6 Oregon State 10-1
7 Florida 10-2
8 Nebraska 9-2
9 Kansas State 10-3
10 Oregon 9-2
11 Notre Dame 9-2
12 Texas 9-2
13 Georgia Tech 9-2
14 TCU 10-1
15 Clemson 9-2


Auto qualifiers: Florida State, Miami, Washington, Purdue, Oklahoma, Florida

At-large: Virginia Tech, Oregon State, Nebraska, Kansas State, Oregon, TCU

Does anyone with a beef get left out?

No. Not anyone with a MNC-claim level beef. Only 1-loss Toledo has any gripe at all but they were much further down the BCS rankings than TCU. Notre Dame, Texas, and GT may bitch about getting left out in favor of TCU or Kansas State, but they had no legitimate complaint about not getting a NC shot themselves with 2 losses.

Do additional teams with gripes in the current and future format get an opportunity?

Yes. TCU gets a shot here and probably wouldn't in a system with fewer teams; additionally the 1-loss schools with a legitimate gripe that they deserved the title shot over FSU (Miami, Washington, Virginia Tech, Oregon State) get their chance.

Do undeserving teams get in?

Yes. Florida, Kansas State, and Oregon had no legitimate claim with 2-3 losses. A closer look at KSU reveals that 2 of their losses came to Oklahoma though, so they are less of an anomaly than their 3 losses make them look. Purdue gets in with 3 losses as Big Ten champ (there was a 3-way tie but the Big Ten's tie-break sent them to the Rose Bowl and presumably would send them as the conference's AQ team).
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« Reply #4 on: December 03, 2012, 04:25:43 EST »

2001

Final BCS Standings:

Code:
1 Miami 12-0
2 Nebraska 11-1
3 Colorado 10-2
4 Oregon 10-1
5 Florida 9-2
6 Tennessee 10-2
7 Texas 10-2
8 Illinois 10-1
9 Stanford 9-2
10 Maryland 10-1
11 Oklahoma 10-2
12 Washington St 9-2
13 LSU 9-3
14 South Carolina 8-3
15 Washington 8-3

Auto qualifiers: Maryland, Miami, Oregon, Illinois, Colorado, LSU

At-large: Nebraska, Florida, Tennessee, Texas, Stanford, Oklahoma

Does anyone with a beef get left out?

No. BYU is the closest with 1-loss in a non-AQ conference, but they didn't come close to cracking the BCS top 15. Anybody else had 2 losses and thus no gripe.

Do additional teams with gripes in the current and future format get an opportunity?

Yes. Nebraska was a highly controversial title game selection after having lost their last game to Colorado, and was the first participant in that game to have failed to win its conference. Other 1-loss teams with a gripe (Oregon, Illinois, Maryland) get an opportunity to play for the title now.

Do undeserving teams get in?

Yes. A number of 2-loss teams get to play for the title, and several were not conference winners (Tennessee, Florida, Stanford, Texas, Oklahoma). Then again there weren't many qualified teams this year so even an 8-team playoff would have included one of them. LSU gets in with 3 losses after upsetting Tennessee in the SEC title game.
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« Reply #5 on: December 03, 2012, 04:39:26 EST »

2002

Final BCS Standings:

Code:
1 Miami 12-0
2 Ohio State 13-0
3 Georgia 12-1
4 USC 10-2
5 Iowa 11-1
6 Washington St 10-2
7 Oklahoma 11-2
8 Kansas State 10-2
9 Notre Dame 10-2
10 Texas 10-2
11 Michigan 9-3
12 Penn State 9-3
13 Colorado 9-4
14 Florida State 9-4
15 West Virginia 9-3

Auto qualifiers: Florida State, Miami, Washington St, Ohio St, Oklahoma, Georgia

At-large: USC, Iowa, Kansas St, Notre Dame, Texas, Michigan

Does anyone with a beef get left out?

No. There was no undefeated non-AQ team and Boise (who lost once-- in their only tough game-- to Arkansas) was not close to the top 15.

Do additional teams with gripes in the current and future format get an opportunity?

No. Nobody else had a legitimate gripe in 2002, with two unbeatens facing off and everyone else in the country with at least one loss.

Do undeserving teams get in?

Yes, but the same would be true for any system that puts more than two teams in for this season. Only UGA and Iowa really could make any argument with 1 loss, but both lost to mediocre teams. So this is one of those years when any playoff gives an opportunity to a bunch of teams that don't stack up to #1 and #2 . . . one of the few years when the BCS really wasn't controversial.
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« Reply #6 on: December 03, 2012, 04:56:41 EST »

2003

Final BCS Standings:

Code:
1 Oklahoma 12-1
2 LSU 12-1
3 USC 11-1
4 Michigan 10-2
5 Ohio State 10-2
6 Texas 10-2
7 Florida State 10-2
8 Tennessee 10-2
9 Miami (Fla.) 10-2
10 Kansas State 11-3
11 Miami (Ohio) 12-1
12 Georgia 10-3
13 Iowa 9-3
14 Purdue 9-3
15 Florida 8-4

Auto qualifiers: Florida St, Miami, USC, Michigan, Kansas State, LSU

At-large: Oklahoma, Ohio St, Texas, Tennessee, Miami (OH), Iowa

Does anyone with a beef get left out?

Yes . . . Boise and TCU were left out entirely as 1-loss teams. They finished 17th and 18th in the BCS standings and narrowly missed the cut, while all teams had at least one loss. This is the first time the 12-team format has left out teams that could legitimately bitch.

Do additional teams with gripes in the current and future format get an opportunity?

Yes. For the second time, a Big XII team that did not win its conference AND lost its last game got into the title game. Other 1-loss teams with a claim (USC, Miami (OH)) get a shot in this format. USC would have in any playoff, but Miami (OH) probably wouldn't with less than 12 teams.

Do undeserving teams get in?

Yes, with Iowa being the worst with 3 losses. KSU also got in with 3 losses, but won the Big XII over OU. This is the worst outcome for the 12-team playoff so far, with two 3-loss teams getting in while two 1-loss teams are left out. This was before voter sentiment really started driving smaller conference schools up in the human polls.
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« Reply #7 on: December 03, 2012, 05:08:52 EST »

2004

Final BCS Standings:

Code:
1 USC 12-0
2 Oklahoma 12-0
3 Auburn 12-0
4 Texas 10-1
5 California 10-1
6 Utah 11-0
7 Georgia 9-2
8 Virginia Tech 10-2
9 Boise State 11-0
10 Louisville 10-1
11 LSU 9-2
12 Iowa 9-2
13 Michigan 9-2
14 Miami (Fla.) 8-3
15 Tennessee 9-3

Auto qualifiers: Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, USC, Michigan, Oklahoma, Auburn

At-large: Texas, California, Utah, Georgia, Boise State, Louisville

Does anyone with a beef get left out?

No. Five teams went undefeated and all get a shot at the title in this format.

Do additional teams with gripes in the current and future format get an opportunity?

Yes. This was the year that the BCS went from being controversial to being a complete clusterfizzle, with a clearly deserving Auburn team being left out and two non-AQ teams going undefeated. All five undefeated teams get to play for a title now, with Auburn, Utah, and Boise State getting their chance. Note that Boise probably still gets left out in an 8-team playoff, and Utah probably does too if there are 6 AQ teams. Both get left out in a 4-team playoff.

Do undeserving teams get in?

Only one, really. UGA was the only 2-loss non-conference champ to get in. Pitt wins the Big East with 3 losses after Miami and VT jump to the ACC.
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« Reply #8 on: December 03, 2012, 05:17:45 EST »

2005

Final BCS Standings:

Code:
1 USC 12-0
2 Texas 12-0
3 Penn State 10-1
4 Ohio State 9-2
5 Oregon 10-1
6 Notre Dame 9-2
7 Georgia 10-2
8 Miami (Fla.) 9-2
9 Auburn 9-2
10 Virginia Tech 10-2
11 West Virginia 10-1
12 LSU 10-2
13 Alabama 9-2
14 TCU 10-1
15 Texas Tech 9-2

Auto qualifiers: Florida St, West Virginia, USC, Ohio St, Texas, Georgia

At-large: Penn St, Oregon, Notre Dame, Miami, Auburn, TCU

Does anyone with a beef get left out?

No. This was another year with only two unbeaten teams, so only two real claimants to a title shot. There were also no 1-loss teams left out of the playoff.

Do additional teams with gripes in the current and future format get an opportunity?

No. Again, the only two unbeaten teams got in, so there were really no other teams with a beef. TCU got left out of the BCS this year, though, and instead gets to play a meaningful postseason game.

Do undeserving teams get in?

Some 2-loss teams get in but they all had pretty strong BCS numbers. And this year, any playoff larger than two teams is going to have teams that don't belong with the main contenders.
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« Reply #9 on: December 03, 2012, 05:26:52 EST »

2006

Final BCS Standings:

Code:
1 Ohio State 12-0
2 Florida 12-1
3 Michigan 11-1
4 LSU 10-2
5 USC 10-2
6 Louisville 11-1
7 Wisconsin 11-1
8 Boise State 12-0
9 Auburn 10-2
10 Oklahoma 11-2
11 Notre Dame 10-2
12 Arkansas 10-3
13 West Virginia 10-2
14 Wake Forest 11-2
15 Virginia Tech 10-2

Auto qualifiers: Wake Forest, Louisville, USC, Ohio St, Oklahoma, Florida

At-large: Michigan, LSU, Wisconsin, Boise St, Auburn, Notre Dame

Does anyone with a beef get left out?

No. There are no 1-loss or fewer teams left out of the 12-team format and the highest ranked non-AQ team (BYU, 20th) had 2 losses.

Do additional teams with gripes in the current and future format get an opportunity?

Yes. Michigan, Louisville, and Wisconsin were left out as 1-loss AQ conference teams, and Boise was undefeated. All had a reason to think they should have played OSU rather than Florida. But Florida got into the game on the strength of the SEC, and started what we all know now is a string of SEC dominance in the title game.

Do undeserving teams get in?

Yes. Some 2-loss non-conference winners got in, but no 3-loss teams this year.
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« Reply #10 on: December 03, 2012, 05:37:54 EST »

2007

Final BCS Standings:

Code:
1 Ohio State 11-1
2 LSU 11-2
3 Virginia Tech 11-2
4 Oklahoma 11-2
5 Georgia 10-2
6 Missouri 11-2
7 USC 10-2
8 Kansas 11-1
9 West Virginia 10-2
10 Hawaii 12-0
11 Arizona State 10-2
12 Florida 9-3
13 Illinois 9-3
14 Boston College 10-3
15 Clemson 9-3

Auto qualifiers: Virginia Tech, West Virginia, USC, Ohio St, Oklahoma, LSU

At-large: Georgia, Missouri, Kansas, Hawaii, Arizona State, Florida

Does anyone with a beef get left out?

Eh . . . considering a 2-loss team got into the title game this year, you could argue that a few other 2-loss teams could have argued for a shot-- notably BYU (10-2, 17th in BCS) but also Boise (10-2, 24th BCS).

Do additional teams with gripes in the current and future format get an opportunity?

Yes. You had an unbeaten Hawaii team that gets a chance to show that their record isn't a fluke.  A 1-loss Kansas team has a great gripe as the only other 1-loss team besides OSU, but their weak scheduled opened the door to a whole slew of 2-loss teams. In addition to LSU, who got the shot, VT, OU, UGA, Mizzou, USC, and WVU all get a crack in this format. This year would have been a total free-for-all.

Do undeserving teams get in?

Just one . . . Florida. They are the only 3-loss team to get in and got there over some 2-loss teams. You could argue that the other 11 teams all legitimately earned a spot to compete for this title.
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« Reply #11 on: December 03, 2012, 05:56:55 EST »

2008

Final BCS Standings:

Code:
1 Oklahoma 12-1
2 Florida 12-1
3 Texas 11-1
4 Alabama 12-1
5 USC 11-1
6 Utah 12-0
7 Texas Tech 11-1
8 Penn State 11-1
9 Boise State 12-0
10 Ohio State 10-2
11 TCU 10-2
12 Cincinnati 11-2
13 Oklahoma State 9-3
14 Georgia Tech 9-3
15 Georgia 9-3

Auto qualifiers: Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, USC, Ohio St, Oklahoma, Florida

At-large: Texas, Alabama, Utah, Texas Tech, Penn St, Boise St

Does anyone with a beef get left out?

Not really. A 1-loss Ball State team did not get into the playoff at 24th in the BCS, but they did not even win their conference. TCU or OSU probably should have been a playoff team over 4-loss Virginia Tech, but with 2 losses had no legitimate gripe over a title shot.

Do additional teams with gripes in the current and future format get an opportunity?

Yes. Two unbeaten non-AQ teams (Utah, Boise) deserved a chance this season. There were six one-loss teams, all in AQ conferences, and three of them won their conference. USC had the best argument to replace Florida in the title game. All of these teams get a chance in the 12-team format. Some would be left out in the 8-team format, including BOTH undefeated teams (assuming 6 AQ teams) . . . as absurd as that is.

Do undeserving teams get in?

Sort of. Cincinnati and Virginia Tech each had 2+ losses but got in via the AQ bid in a year with a number of 1-or-fewer-loss teams. Neither really replaced another highly qualified team, at least.

By the way, as an aside . . . this was an incredibly strong year for the Mountain West. Utah goes undefeated and is 6th in the BCS; TCU loses only to Utah and Oklahoma and is 11th in the BCS; BYU loses only to TCU and Utah and is 16th in the BCS. In any other year they may have gotten two teams in the playoff, which would have been highly impressive.
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« Reply #12 on: December 03, 2012, 06:10:19 EST »

2009

Final BCS Standings:

Code:
1 Alabama 13-0
2 Texas 13-0
3 Cincinnati 12-0
4 TCU 12-0
5 Florida 12-1
6 Boise State 13-0
7 Oregon 10-2
8 Ohio State 10-2
9 Georgia Tech 11-2
10 Iowa 10-2
11 Virginia Tech 9-3
12 LSU 9-3
13 Penn State 10-2
14 BYU 10-2
15 Miami (Fla.) 9-3

Auto qualifiers: Georgia Tech, Cincinnati, Oregon, Ohio State, Texas, Alabama

At-large: TCU, Florida, Boise St, Iowa, Virginia Tech, BYU

Does anyone with a beef get left out?

No. With five unbeaten teams, all in the playoff, nobody can bitch.

Do additional teams with gripes in the current and future format get an opportunity?

Yes. Cincinnati, TCU, and Boise all had a good argument for getting into the game, and none of them get the chance without a playoff. Cincy and TCU probably get a shot in an 8-team playoff (and maybe a 4-team one if there are no AQs) but Boise does not get a shot without a 12-team playoff unless you turn down AQ conference winners.

Do undeserving teams get in?

Definitely, since there are five unbeaten teams and just one 1-loss team with any gripe at all (UF, lost only to Bammer). The other 6 teams didn't really earn a title shot but will get a chance at it anyway. It would have been interesting to see how Cincy, TCU, and Boise did against these 2+ loss teams.
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« Reply #13 on: December 03, 2012, 06:20:58 EST »

2010

Final BCS Standings:

Code:
1 Auburn 13-0
2 Oregon 12-0
3 TCU 12-0
4 Stanford 11-1
5 Wisconsin 11-1
6 Ohio State 11-1
7 Oklahoma 11-2
8 Arkansas 10-2
9 Michigan State 11-1
10 Boise State 11-1
11 LSU 10-2
12 Missouri 10-2
13 Virginia Tech 11-2
14 Oklahoma State 10-2
15 Nevada 12-1

Auto qualifiers: Virginia Tech, Connecticut, Oregon, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Auburn

At-large: TCU, Stanford, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Nevada

Does anyone with a beef get left out?

No. The three undefeated teams all get in and nobody else can bitch. There are deserving one-loss teams when it comes to a playoff slot (Michigan State, 9th BCS, Boise, 10th BCS) but they have no claim to the title when there are unbeatens out there.

Do additional teams with gripes in the current and future format get an opportunity?

Yes. TCU gets another shot after going unbeaten again.

Do undeserving teams get in?

Yes. The worst offender is Big East champ UConn with 4 losses. A number of teams-- especially MSU and Boise but also 10-2 Utah-- deserved the coveted 12th spot over this lousy team. Boise was probably better than Nevada, but Nevada got in as a top 15 non-AQ league winner since it won the WAC tiebreak by beating Boise.
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« Reply #14 on: December 03, 2012, 06:30:05 EST »

2011

Final BCS Standings:

Code:
1 LSU 13-0
2 Alabama 11-1
3 Oklahoma State 11-1
4 Stanford 11-1
5 Oregon 11-2
6 Arkansas 10-2
7 Boise State 11-1
8 Kansas State 10-2
9 South Carolina 10-2
10 Wisconsin 11-2
11 Virginia Tech 11-2
12 Baylor 9-3
13 Michigan 10-2
14 Oklahoma 9-3
15 Clemson 10-3

Auto qualifiers: Clemson, West Virginia, Oregon, Wisconsin, Oklahoma St, LSU

At-large: Alabama, Stanford, Arkansas, Boise St, Kansas St, South Carolina

Does anyone with a beef get left out?

Only Houston, who lost one game and could make some argument that they belonged in the playoff over 2-loss teams. There was only one unbeaten so a number of 1-loss teams could make a case.

Do additional teams with gripes in the current and future format get an opportunity?

Yes. Alabama got into the game with 1 loss, but Oklahoma St, Stanford, and Boise could make an argument with 1-loss themselves . . . especially Ok St, which won its conference while the other two (and Bammer) didn't. They all get a chance in this format.

Do undeserving teams get in?

Yes. The worst offender is the Big East champ again, a 3-loss WVU team ranked 23rd. Clemson also got in with 3 losses as the ACC champ.
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« Reply #15 on: December 03, 2012, 06:41:38 EST »

2012

Final BCS Standings:

Code:
1 Notre Dame 12-0
2 Alabama 12-1
3 Florida 11-1
4 Oregon 11-1
5 Kansas State 11-1
6 Stanford 11-2
7 Georgia 11-2
8 LSU 10-2
9 Texas A&M 10-2
10 South Carolina 10-2
11 Oklahoma 10-2
12 Florida State 11-2
13 Oregon State 9-3
14 Clemson 10-2
15 Northern Ill. 12-1

Auto qualifiers: Florida St, Louisville, Stanford, Wisconsin, Kansas St, Alabama

At-large: Notre Dame, Florida, Oregon, Georgia, LSU, Northern Ill.

Does anyone with a beef get left out?

No. With plenty of teams with 1 loss or less and all of them in the playoff, there are no legitimate contenders left out.

Do additional teams with gripes in the current and future format get an opportunity?

Yes. Alabama got into the game with 1 loss and a number of other 1-loss teams have a claim . . . Florida, Oregon, Kansas St, and to a lesser degree Northern Ill. All of them get to play for it.

Do undeserving teams get in?

Yes, and it's worse this year. Florida State, Louisville, and Wisconsin all get in with 2+ losses and ranked 12th or lower. Who gets hurt? The SEC . . . Texas A&M and South Carolina would be the 5th and 6th SEC teams in playoff, both ranked ahead of all three pretenders.
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