Here's my game by game picks for 2013 (optimistic)

[Volznut]

Butch will get the maximum from this team, which has very little experience at WR, QB, CB, and has some lack of talented depth at LB. I think the team will fight all year and get respect from the College football world. On to the picks:

August 31: Austin Peay, Knoxville TN: AP is probably one of the worst teams to set foot in Neyland in a long time. This game will be dominated by the veteran Vol OL which is about an average of 50 lbs bigger than the AP DL. Butch Jones will rely on the ground game but also work on the passing game, and will play a ton of players. That’s why the score will be lower than many who think the Vols score 70. Not much of a contest. Vols 44 AP 7

September 7: WKU, Knoxville, TN: WKU is coached by Bobby Petrino and he can coach, especially offense. WKU ran the ball well last year with Antonio Andrews, who had around 1700 yards rushing. The word is that they will be more of a passing team this year. Not sure who on the roster will be the QB, because of the philosophy change, but they also have a very good receiver in Willie McNeal and a great safety on defense in Jonathan Dowling. The Vols should not have problems scoring. How well they handle the pass game will be important. I think the Hilltoppers will be a test for the young defense, and hang around for a half. Final Vols 38 WKU 21

September 14: Oregon, Eugene, OR: Oregon is a top 10 team, preseason. They have a lot of speed on offense, with a potential Heisman candidate in DeAnthony Thomas. Sophomore QB Marcus Mariota has talent and makes plays. The thing is, they have a new coach, and it will be an adjustment for Oregon to the new style. They will still play a fast spread, but the Vols catch them early, which is good for them. I think the Vols will go in with a gameplan to run the ball a lot behind their veteran OL . To win the Vols have to contain the Oregon speed on the outside, and also score TDs, not FGs. This is a tough task, and any letdown can start a blowout. I don’t think the Vols win, but they hang around long enough to gain national respect. Final Oregon: 31 Vols 21

September 21: Florida, Gainesville, FL: Back to back road games are tough. Back to back road games against Top 10 teams is really tough. Vols have not beaten Florida in a long time. Florida brings back a nasty defense, excellent secondary, but a pretty average offense. One thing I think will happen is that the Vols will be mentally ready, something they have not been in some time. In fact I think the Vols come out and take it to FL for the first half in this game. FL makes adjustments and the game goes into the 4th qtr. Ultimately the Vols inexperience in the secondary does them in, but not before gaining more national respect. Final UF 27 Vols 20

September 28: South Alabama, Knoxville, TN: After the two tough road losses, the Vols take out their frustrations on South Alabama. The game should not be close. Vols are also improved in the pass offense now, and the secondary is getting better. Vols 45 South Alabama 14

October 5: Georgia, Knoxville, TN: This is going to be an interesting game. Georgia will feature an explosive offense, but a very young defense. Tennessee’s defense will be better than it was last year against Georgia when Georgia ran at will, but the young secondary will have problems. Gurley and Marshall will have good days, but so will Lane and Neal. This game will be close at the half, but Georgia will eventually win the game with more talent. Georgia 34 Vols 24

October 19: South Carolina, Knoxville, TN: I think the Vols will pull an upset this year, and this game could be it. The game is in Knoxville, Butch will have 2 weeks to prepare, and the Vols will improve as the season moves along. South Carolina will come in with a so-so offense and a good defense. I think they will make some mistakes, let the Vols hang around, and lose in the 4th quarter. Clowney will be kept in check most of the game. Vols 24 SCe: 21

October 26, Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL: Alabama is loaded again, with talent everywhere. I’d like to see Tennessee stay in this one, and they can. Bama will likely stay ahead and keep ahead, but I don’t see a huge blowout in the game. This one will be a grind it out game, and the Vols will bring all they can, but be out-talented. The Vol OL should be of some concern to the Tide. Bama 29 Vols 17

November 2, Missouri, Columbia, MO: Missouri will be similar to last year. Good offense, terrible defense. If the Vols can bring some defense in this game, they can win. I look for this to be a very close game, score in the thirties. The Vols avenge last year’s comeback by Missouri and win this one. Vols 38 Mizzou 34

November 9, Auburn, Knoxville, TN: Auburn was terrible last year, and have problems on defense. Their offense was also very bad last year, but new head coach Gus Malzahn can run a tricky and deceptive offense. He will start Nick Marshall at QB, and he can make plays. I don’t think Auburn will be good enough to beat UT in Knoxville, and they will have problems with the Vol OL. Vols 30 Auburn 17

November 23, Vanderbilt, Knoxville, TN: Tennessee fans will like this one. I am predicting a total meltdown of a season for Vandy, based off their off the field distractions, new QB, and a bunch of new faces. Vandy beat the Vols handily last year, but it isn’t happening this year. Vols by 14. Vols 28 Vandy 14

November 30, Kentucky, Lexington, KY: Kentucky is rebuilding with a Stoops in control. He has started off well with recruiting, but UK isn’t going to be very good this year. They have question marks everywhere, and I am not sure who makes plays for them. Vols will roll. Vols 38 UK 17

Yes this is an optimistic outlook. 8-4.

I am picking us to beat AP, WKU, S Alabama, Mizzou, Auburn, Vandy, and UK. I am picking an upset of SCe, since I think we’ll be favored in all of the other games I have picked us to win. The 2 road games I am picking us to win are UK and Mizzou. The only games that I think we just have next to zero chance to win are Oregon, Bama, and UF. I picked a loss to UGA but that one is winnable.

Is that too far fetched?

[Black Diamond Vol]

If we pull off one big upset this year, I think it will be UF.  And I think that says more about them than us.  They were nowhere near as good as their record indicated last year, they've had a lot of injuries, and I think they are primed for a big letdown this season.  Hell, with just average coaching, we would have beaten them last year.  To be clear, I'm not predicting we'll beat them down there, but it wouldn't shock me.  And I wouldn't put them in the same class as bammer and Oregon.

[Creek Walker]

I don't think 8 wins is completely unreasonable. But I think our playmakers on offense are going to have to emerge between now and October if it is going to happen. And there is certainly some talent on the offensive side of the ball, so I guess we'll see...I'll be happy with 6-6. Anything more than that is gravy.

[Volznut]

I don't think 8 wins is completely unreasonable. But I think our playmakers on offense are going to have to emerge between now and October if it is going to happen. And there is certainly some talent on the offensive side of the ball, so I guess we'll see...I'll be happy with 6-6. Anything more than that is gravy.

6-6 should be expected. That means we beat  AP, WKU, S Alabama, and three out of Mizzou, AU, Vandy, and UK.

[Creek Walker]

One thing that is trying to cause the optimistic angel on my right shoulder to knock the pessimistic devil off my left shoulder is thinking about how this team stacks up against Butch's Cincy teams. He had 2 really nice years at Cincinnati (it's debatable whether he won with Kelly's talent, but either way he had 2 nice years). And as bad as this Tennessee team is, there is far more talent on this team than Jones had at Cincinnati. Granted, that Cincy team couldn't have come into the SEC and won 8 or 9 games and been ranked. But, still, I think Butch's track record suggests he can get the most out of his talent. I'm anxious to see what he can accomplish with these guys as the season progresses.

[Inspector Vol]

Anything more than 6-6 means we finally beat someone who has equal or better talent. Missouri, vandy & KY we should beat. Auburn has more talent than us, but it is at home. History tells me carolina will be a close game and is at home, so that could be the one to steal. Of course the uga series rarely goes as expected so who knows.

If we get to 7-5 with our roster Butch will have proven something.

[VinnieVOL]

I like it.  I have thought all along that we get either UGA or USC.  USC probably makes more sense between the two.

My question Nut, is how many games you think Worley starts?  If he doesn't make it when is he pulled and do you think Peterman gets that next shot?

I hope Worley comes in and lights it up.

[VOLMAN]

the Offense be? We were a threat to score at any moment last year and all of those threats are gone. I expect the D to be much improved but as the winner is the one who scores the most. It may turn out that the QBs and WRs are much better than indicated by the scrimmages but I'll have to see it to believe it. I don't think most of the games will be as close as you predict simply because of my anticipated mediocre offense (I expect Ds to pack in to stop the run and dare us to throw until we demonstrate a viable threat) and I don't think we will beat SC, I'm with BDV, if we upset someone I think UF fits the bill best. I just hope we win all of those that we should and I include Missouri and AU in that group.  

[Volznut]

I like it.  I have thought all along that we get either UGA or USC.  USC probably makes more sense between the two.

My question Nut, is how many games you think Worley starts?  If he doesn't make it when is he pulled and do you think Peterman gets that next shot?

I hope Worley comes in and lights it up.

I hope he starts all of them because it means he's doing well. I think the next two weeks are a trial run for him, he can take it and go, or let someone else take over. It could be one of those years where we see 2-3 starters during the year, which isn't good.

[Volznut]

the Offense be? We were a threat to score at any moment last year and all of those threats are gone. I expect the D to be much improved but as the winner is the one who scores the most. It may turn out that the QBs and WRs are much better than indicated by the scrimmages but I'll have to see it to believe it. I don't think most of the games will be as close as you predict simply because of my anticipated mediocre offense (I expect Ds to pack in to stop the run and dare us to throw until we demonstrate a viable threat) and I don't think we will beat SC, I'm with BDV, if we upset someone I think UF fits the bill best. I just hope we win all of those that we should and I include Missouri and AU in that group.  

We won't know till we play Oregon, as the first two teams we play have terrible defenses.
I think the offense will improve as the season progresses, but we have a veteran OL and veteran Rbs. That will help. I don't see us getting 35 points a game, but I look for our young QBs and Wrs to get better as the season moves along. I look for North to be a big play guy.

[Clockwork Orange]

We won't know till we play Oregon, as the first two teams we play have terrible defenses.
I think the offense will improve as the season progresses, but we have a veteran OL and veteran Rbs. That will help. I don't see us getting 35 points a game, but I look for our young QBs and Wrs to get better as the season moves along. I look for North to be a big play guy.

This is why it's so important for our bowl hopes that our swing games (Missouri, Auburn, Vandy) are in November. If we win 2 of the 3, we bowl even if we upset nobody. By then I think our passing game will be quite a bit better so I like our chances.

[LouisVOL]

How sweet it would be to beat somebody we are not supposed to beat.  Been a long time. 

But for now, win the ones we should win, compete toe to toe in those with minor talent advantages, and scare the pants off someone with a major talent advantage and I will call it a successful season.

[Jedi Master]

My reaction to Nut's optimistic prediction is that UT's offense will be significantly worse than last year, its D will be moderately better than last year.  This is based on differences between last year and this year in UT's talent, coaching, executing a new system, and opponent's strengths/weaknesses. Also, regarding UT's last 4 games, I don't see a sweep.  UT could win or lose any of those 4.  I'll guess UT will go 3-1, which isn't bad. 

In my opinion, 2 reasons for optimism for Vol fans:  One, Butch Jones is recruiting really well, which is essential for UT to compete.  Second, this is the first year of a new system and new coaches, so UT fans should expect significant improvement next year.  To expect it this year may not be fair to the UT coaches given the current lack of talent they are working with.
 
AP - agree
WKU - agree
Oregon - Oregon 52, UT 17.  Will be a track meet in which UT cannot keep up.
UF - agree, but UT has a shot at the upset here.  UF's O may keep UT in it, and anything can happen in a close game.
South bama - agree
UGA - UGA 42, UT 20.   UT doesn't match up well against UGA this year.
USCe - USCe 27, UT 14.  I just believe USCe is the better team and still being in the SEC-E race will keep them focused .   
Bama - Bama 31, UT 7.  UT's O against Bama's D, just don't see it.
Mizzou - agree
AU - AU 27, UT 21.  I don't believe that UT's players "know how to win" yet against an equal team in talent, given this is Jone's first year.
Vandy - agree
UK - agree

[BanditVol]

8 4 matches my most optimistic expectation butI don't expect us to get there. I hsve hopes of 7 5 and think thats very doable but  think 6 6 is acceptable. 

The way the season is laid out is very interesting. A mixed September with two very tough tests followrd by a brutal October and then what I feel is the key to the whole season....back to back very winnable games vs Auburn and Mizzou that could go either way.  By then the team should be gelling if Jones is half the coach I think he is.

[Volznut]

Bandit, here's the thing about last year's offense. They were good statistically - but they didn't get it done when they needed to. They had chances against SCe, Georgia, and even FL, but wilted when the pressure was on. Against Vandy they had the worst day ever. I know that the defense was horrible, but still - the offense was not "clutch"

That requires a mindset. If our defense gives us a chance, can they go down and get the winning TD? Get in position for a winning FG without turning it over? Dooley's teams never did that. That is what I hope changes with Coach Jones in his first year.

[VinnieVOL]

Bandit, here's the thing about last year's offense. They were good statistically - but they didn't get it done when they needed to. They had chances against SCe, Georgia, and even FL, but wilted when the pressure was on. Against Vandy they had the worst day ever. I know that the defense was horrible, but still - the offense was not "clutch"

That requires a mindset. If our defense gives us a chance, can they go down and get the winning TD? Get in position for a winning FG without turning it over? Dooley's teams never did that. That is what I hope changes with Coach Jones in his first year.

Man, I'm glad Bray is gone. 

[Volznut]

Man, I'm glad Bray is gone. 

Great natural talent, mentally not so strong. It reflected in his performance in the clutch.

[Clockwork Orange]

Great natural talent, mentally not so strong. It reflected in his performance in the clutch.

A guy like that needs a strong coach if he's going to get it together. He had Dooley. For another example see Harris, Tony.

[EmerilVOL]

You're BIAS is showing....

First of all UGA's defense was rode hard and put up wet by UT in last year's game and while that was Bray and company, UGA's defense was not that impressive and it has some serious holes to fill.  So your projection of the UGA game is off base by about 14 points in both directions.  UGA may win but it will not be by some 40-7 score. 

USCe has some serious holes on offense as well and their defense is solid but UT almost pulled the upset in Cockalackie last year.  Motivation is something Butch knows and I predict BUtch and company will come out fired up to prove they are a team that has not done it with smoke and mirrors. 

AU while having Malzahn is a year away from having an offense that can satisfy his run and gun Cam Newton style of offense.  Aint gonna be pretty when AU gets beat down!!!

[VinnieVOL]

A guy like that needs a strong coach if he's going to get it together. He had Dooley. For another example see Harris, Tony.

It was a recipe for disaster looking back now.  Bray's arm is the only thing about him I'd want in a qb.  Very little mobility, awful mechanics, awful attitude.  His arm was so good he acted like he could get by with that alone.  

They say Furgeson has a Bray-like cannon for an arm.  He has to be better than Bray at everything else.  Like Butch says, "I do not like emotional players".

[Clockwork Orange]

They say Furgeson has a Bray-like cannon for an arm.  He has to be better than Bray at everything else.

Word is he's been a great teammate so far. I don't think his arm is as strong but I think he has Bray everywhere else.

[VinnieVOL]

Word is he's been a great teammate so far. I don't think his arm is as strong but I think he has Bray everywhere else.

I can't help but think it's just a matter of time before he's handed the keys.

[Creek Walker]

They say Furgeson has a Bray-like cannon for an arm.  He has to be better than Bray at everything else.  Like Butch says, "I do not like emotional players".

Ferg can absolutely zip a pass.