And there are more failed transitions than successful ones IMO. It is always a roll of the dice. Just how big a risk are you willing to take because most transitions take a while and some require new schools. I am just glad I do not have to make this call. And I hope Fulmer can pick a better head coach than he was at picking assistants in the 2000s.
So if Tee does not win the SEC his 2nd year here, how many will be declaring him a failure and clamoring for a new HC?
There have been more failed coaching changes, period. what are the chances of a coach succeeding in the SEC? Well, you have to define success.
If that's lasting more than 5 years only two current SEC coaches meet that criteria. Saban and Mike Stoops. Mike Stoops is only a success at Kentucky which might not count, but still 1 in 7.
If it's winning an SEC championship then in the last 5 years that only applies to Saban and Malzahn, which would be 1 in 7 again.
If it's winning an NC then it only applies to Saban. I think we can agree that's probably too high a standard.
If it's winning 10 games at least once, then it's Saban, Malzahn, McIlliwain, Richt, Miles, Freeze, Sumlin, Pinkel, Mullen, and Spurrier.
That's a large crowd, but Sulin and McIllwain, Sumlin and Miles were fired for underperformance, Freeze was let go for impropriety and Spurrier quit on his own but obvioulsy could have stayed. Pinkel quit for health reasons. I am not sure if Richt was fired or if it was mutual. Mullen left for a better job.
So even with that very forgiving criteria, in the last five years only Saban, Malzahn, Mullen, Pinkel, and Spurrier have been sucesses if you count not getting fired, and Richt might or might not be int hat groupl. That's either 2/7 or 5/14, however you want to slice it.
Bottom line: Statistically the next coach is likely to be a failure by today's high standards.
Which is why all the mouth breathers calling for Fulmer's dismissal in 2008 really should have thought it out a bit more and done the trade. Said trade being "how likely is it that a coaching change will lead to an improvement?".
A coaching change is a bit of a crap shoot at the end of the day.