First, an update on what we needed to happen the last two nights . . .
Tonight
CAA finals: VCU vs. Drexel. Honestly this one may not matter, but we're probably better served if Drexel wins. They are in the tourney either way, but VCU may be borderline.
Southern Conf finals: Western Carolina vs. Davidson. Davidson is virtually our equal in bubble talk right now, so we need them to win this game to take the auto bid. Western is not a tourney team unless they win.
Summit semifinals: Oral Roberts vs. W. Illinois and S. Dakota St. vs. Southern Utah. Oral Roberts is just above the bubble line and we should root for them to win tonight and then win the finals. S. Dakota St. is a few spots behind us and we'd be better served if they lost in the semis, tonight. It's doubtful that this league gets two in, but if S. Dakota beats Oral Roberts in the final that may happen and eat up an at-large.
Sun Belt semifinals: Denver vs. Western Kentucky and Arkansas St. vs. North Texas. Denver is 15 spots behind us on the Dance Card and is the only Sun Belt team with any shot at an at-large. We'd be best served if they won the title, but second best would be a loss in the semis tonight. They are probably not in play for an at-large anyway but I'd rather not take chances.
Tomorrow
Big Sky semifinals: Weber St. vs. Portland St. and Montana vs. E. Washington. Montana is 9 spots behind us and Weber St. is 24 spots behind us. I don't think there's any way this conference will get two teams in, but worst case scenario would be for Montana to lose in the finals. So we either need to pull for them to lose in the semis or win the whole thing (which would be the best case scenario).
Horizon League finals: Detroit vs. Valparaiso. Valpo is 16 spots behind us, while Detroit has no shot at an at-large. We should root for Valpo, though it probably won't matter. The Horizon team with the best at-large credentials, Cleveland St. (10 spots behind us), lost in the semis. I doubt they are up for an at-large now.
Several other tournaments start tomorrow, so in general we just need to root for chalk in those.
VCU beat Drexel. I'm still not sure that one mattered either way.
Davidson won in double OT, which is good.
Oral Roberts lost in the semis and S. Dakota St. won the tournament . . . this was not ideal but it may have bumped Oral Roberts off an at-large bid. They're still just ahead of us in the Dance Card but that won't matter if we TCOB.
Denver lost in the semis and WKU won the tourney. This is fine, as Denver is probably way out of the running for an at-large.
Montana and Weber St. advanced to the finals. We should root for Montana, though they are pretty far behind us and will probably not get an at-large bid if they lose.
Detroit hammered Valpo to win the Horizon. That should knock Valpo far below an at-large, so probably nothing to worry about.
Not mentioned in previous post . . . Harvard clinched the Ivy with Princeton beating Penn. I don't know how I missed this but that is very important, as Harvard was a lock for an at-large.
With all of the above, I think we are (at worst) at risk of two at-large teams (Drexel and Oral Roberts) emerging. That's not ideal but at least one of them couldn't be helped.
Now, as for tonight and tomorrow . . . Lots of conferences are in the 1st or 2nd round. In general, root for chalk in the small conferences, but not necessarily in the power conferences.
Games of particular interest tonight:
Big Sky Final: Pull for
Montana (bubblish) over Weber State (bubblish), but it probably doesn't matter. The loser is unlikely to get an at-large but it's still close enough to care.
Big East 2nd Round: Pull for
Louisville (lock) over Seton Hall (bubble),
Villanova (no chance) over South Florida (bubble), and
Pitt (no chance) over Georgetown (lock). Both of those bubble teams are currently ahead of us, but not by a lot. We need Pitt to win for RPI reasons as long as they don't win the tournament.
PAC-12 1st Round: Pull for
USC (no chance) over UCLA (bubble),
Arizona State (no chance) over Stanford (bubble), and
Utah (no chance) over Colorado (bubble). UCLA is lower than us right now but could play its way onto the bubble. Stanford is just above us and Colorado is just below us.
Big 12 1st Round: Neither game matters, because none of the 4 are near the bubble.
C-USA 1st Round: Pull for
SMU (no chance) over Marshall (bubble). Somehow Marshall is reasonably close to the bubble. SMU needs to put an end to that business.
Games of particular interest tomorrow:
Mountain West 1st Round: Pull for
TCU (no chance) over Colorado State (bubble). Otherwise, chalk is fine. MWC has three locks.
Big 12 Quarters: Pull for
Iowa State (lock) over Texas (bubble). In the other three just pull for chalk.
Big East Quarters: Pull for
Syracuse (lock) over UConn (bubble) and the
Pitt-Georgetown winner (no chance/lock) over Cincinnati (bubble).
PAC-12 2nd Round: Jeez, what is with the PAC-12??? Seven of them are bubble teams! Washington and California are the closest to getting in, so maybe root for one of them to go all the way while rooting against chalk in the remaining games (meaning, root for the winners of the 1st round games to beat the bye teams). That conference is a clusterfizzle.
C-USA 1st Round: Root for chalk except pull for the
UAB-Tulane winner (no chance) over UCF (bubble). Tulsa is borderline, so if SMU has beaten Marshall, pull for
SMU. Otherwise,
Tulsa over Marshall.
ACC 1st Round: Pull for
Boston College (no chance) over NC State (bubble) and
Georgia Tech (no chance) over Miami (bubble). The other two games are irrelevant.
SEC 1st Round: Root for
South Carolina (no chance) over Alabama (bubblish),
Ole Miss (bubble) over Auburn (no chance), and
Georgia (no chance) over Mississippi State (bubble). MSU and Alabama losing should help our at-large chances, and Ole Miss gives us a better chance at a resume boost if we can beat them.
Big Ten 1st Round: Pull for
Minnesota (no chance) over Northwestern (bubble). Minnesota could play onto the bubble but for some reason Lunardi just loves Northwestern . . . so better for them to lose. Otherwise chalk is good for the 1st round.
Whew . . . that's a whole lot of rootin' to do. Not all of the "bubble" teams are make-or-break in these games, but I listed whatever I thought had the potential to help us.
