Hey BDV

[Volznut]

Apple is up 56 pts (10%) today   

[Black Diamond Vol]

I would have liked to have bought a few hundred shares the day before the iPhone came out.   

[Volznut]

I bought 100 shares in 2001. I still have them.   

[Black Diamond Vol]

I bought 100 shares in 2001. I still have them.   

My gut tells me that Apple is due for a big misstep.  Since the original iMac came out in 1998, they haven't missed.  Sure, they've had a few minor hiccups (Apple TV, iCloud), but for the most part, everything they've touched has turned to gold.  Steve Jobs is gone, and they're rumored to be getting into areas (TV, video games) in which there is established competition, they have no experience, and the profit margins are traditionally very low.  Apple has always been at their best when they are inventing new categories (the all in one computer, the mouse, the smartphone, the tablet, the high-capacity MP3 player).  That won't be the case with TVs and games.  It will be interesting to see what happens.

[BigOrange Maniac]

My gut tells me that Apple is due for a big misstep.  Since the original iMac came out in 1998, they haven't missed.  Sure, they've had a few minor hiccups (Apple TV, iCloud), but for the most part, everything they've touched has turned to gold.  Steve Jobs is gone, and they're rumored to be getting into areas (TV, video games) in which there is established competition, they have no experience, and the profit margins are traditionally very low.  Apple has always been at their best when they are inventing new categories (the all in one computer, the mouse, the smartphone, the tablet, the high-capacity MP3 player).  That won't be the case with TVs and games.  It will be interesting to see what happens.

Personally, I think Apple should stay out of TVs and gaming and just keep making darned good computers and mobile devices. I sorta dread to see what's going to happen to the company with Jobs out of the picture.

Although, if Apple could do something to run off all the 20-something and 30-something preppy types that force me to elbow my way through the store every time I need something, that would be a fine misstep by me.

[Black Diamond Vol]

Personally, I think Apple should stay out of TVs and gaming and just keep making darned good computers and mobile devices. I sorta dread to see what's going to happen to the company with Jobs out of the picture.

Although, if Apple could do something to run off all the 20-something and 30-something preppy types that force me to elbow my way through the store every time I need something, that would be a fine misstep by me.

Apple actually attempted a foray into gaming in the mid 90s, and failed miserably.  Of course, as a company, they weren't the 700 lb gorilla they are today, either.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_Bandai_Pippin

Gaming is a tricky business.  You don't just have to sell your hardware to the consumer, you have to sell it to developers as well.  As great as your console may be to the buyer, if the game developers don't want to make titles for it, it will be DOA.  Just ask Sega (Dreamcast) and Atari (everything after the 2600).  Not only that, but even if your hardware is successful, you won't see a profit for 2-3 years.  Any new console with the latest components is going to be sold at a loss (in fact, I read recently that the Xbox 360, which debuted in 2005, wasn't sold at a profit until mid-2011).  Apple would have to recoup those losses through sales of 1st party software and 3rd party licensing fees, and that doesn't happen overnight.  

[Volznut]

Personally, I think Apple should stay out of TVs and gaming and just keep making darned good computers and mobile devices. I sorta dread to see what's going to happen to the company with Jobs out of the picture.

Although, if Apple could do something to run off all the 20-something and 30-something preppy types that force me to elbow my way through the store every time I need something, that would be a fine misstep by me.

They'll be fine. They have at least a 10 year pipeline of stuff with what's going on right now. Jobs was a visionary, but by no means was he the only man with ideas. They have created a culture of innovation with that company.

[BanditVol]

Jobs was clearly the driving force of their renaissance over the last 10 years.  With him gone, IMO they turn into just another corporation.

Looking back, I don't really consider them that innovative in terms of cutting edge technology.  Yeah sure, they popularized touch screens for phones, and that's sort of cutting edge I guess.

But IMO, their real genius - Job's real genius - was in capturing what the "everyman" wanted in terms of tech products.  From the intuitive ease of the Mac OS concept of using icons and folders way back in the day to the idea of carrying around all your music in one small device to having the internet at your touch-screen fingertips - Jobs, and so Apple, just had a way of knowing what people really want.

He's gone now, and that insight goes with him IMO.

It will take them a while to collapse but I don't think you replace Jobs.  I'm not saying they will go away, they may last a very long time, but their days of being the innovator on the cutting edge are over.  They will morph into just another corporation.

[Volznut]

They're very good at understanding what the consumer wants..in advance.

Of course they're innovative. Apple was a computer company. They weren't experts in music. They innovated the world of how we listen to and buy music. Then they innovated how we use the cell phone, not being a cell phone company. They simply don't box themselves into a hole.

[EmerilVOL]

Jobs was clearly the driving force of their renaissance over the last 10 years.  With him gone, IMO they turn into just another corporation.

Looking back, I don't really consider them that innovative in terms of cutting edge technology.  Yeah sure, they popularized touch screens for phones, and that's sort of cutting edge I guess.

But IMO, their real genius - Job's real genius - was in capturing what the "everyman" wanted in terms of tech products.  From the intuitive ease of the Mac OS concept of using icons and folders way back in the day to the idea of carrying around all your music in one small device to having the internet at your touch-screen fingertips - Jobs, and so Apple, just had a way of knowing what people really want.

He's gone now, and that insight goes with him IMO.

It will take them a while to collapse but I don't think you replace Jobs.  I'm not saying they will go away, they may last a very long time, but their days of being the innovator on the cutting edge are over.  They will morph into just another corporation.

I hate to burst your Apple bubble but Jobs and Apple did not invent the icon / windows universe.  The interface was invented by Xerox at their PARC center.  Xerox maintained a tech development center called PARC and JObs happened to see a software OS system that was being considered for use with copier interfaces to enable people to use a copier without being able to read English.  That was the Window/Icon interface and Jobs "stole" the idea and the rest as they say is history.  IT was innovative to marry it with the OS of a personal computer, but the "Apple invented Windows interface" is just not true. 

That is one of the reasons that Apple did not win their suit against Microsoft when they sued them for "stealing" their windows idea. 

Just my humble $3.64 gallon of gas knowledge conversion effort for a Friday morning.

[SmokeyJoe]

I might add that Apple is really a marketing/design firm that happens to have worldwide HQ in America. Not sure i consider it an "american" company in the new global economy, but technically I suppose it is "american"

[Black Diamond Vol]

Here's Apple's current hardware lineup.

http://store.apple.com/us

Looking at that list, Apple can claim to have revolutionized or outright invented 6 of the 9 product categories they currently sell.  

iPad- Yes, there had been some clumsy attempts at tablets before (including one from Apple itself), but they were big and bulky, and most required the use of a stylus.  The iPad was the first tablet to introduce a simple interface and catch on with the masses.

iPod- Before the iPod, the MP3 player was a niche product, with the portable models no larger than 256MB, and anything bigger than that being component sized, a big black box designed to fit on your AV rack (not to mention that these models cost thousands of dollars).  The iPod was the first model to realistically allow you to carry your entire music collection in your pocket, and at an affordable price.  Not to mention that with the iPod came iTunes and the iTunes store, which forever changed the way we listen to and purchase our music and video.

iPhone- the world's first smartphone, the first touchscreen phone, and the product that made Apple the world's largest tech company.  

Apple TV- no, it hasn't sold well, but this was the world's first streaming device.  Without it, we wouldn't have streaming services like Netflix, Hulu, HBO, ESPN, etc. built into our TVs, game consoles, or blu-rays (which, ironically, is probably why it hasn't sold well).  

Macbook Air- the first ultrathin laptop, the first to use primarily solid-state storage, and the first full-featured computer not to include an optical drive.  Every windows-based PC maker has copied the concept (the "ultrabook").  In 5 years (or less) every laptop built is going to look like this.

iMac- The original Mac was undeniably a revolutionary product.  You can argue that Jobs got the ideas for the mouse and a graphical interface from elsewhere, but this was the first product to bring those concepts to market.  

This is where Apple is at their best- when they lead, invent, and get a massive head start on the competition while they scramble to answer.  Which is why I'm a bit worried about their impending forays into TV and gaming.  Those moves seem more reactionary than revolutionary, and reacting is not typically Apple's forte.

[Volznut]

I might add that Apple is really a marketing/design firm that happens to have worldwide HQ in America. Not sure i consider it an "american" company in the new global economy, but technically I suppose it is "american"

well, it makes electronic gadgets. Yeah... it's made at Foxconn, in Shenzhen, PRC. So is just about everything in that industry.

[Volznut]

Yes, but what will they be doing in tv and gaming? 

[Stogie Vol]

[Quasi EVol]

I hate to burst your Apple bubble but Jobs and Apple did not invent the icon / windows universe.  The interface was invented by Xerox at their PARC center.  Xerox maintained a tech development center called PARC and JObs happened to see a software OS system that was being considered for use with copier interfaces to enable people to use a copier without being able to read English.  That was the Window/Icon interface and Jobs "stole" the idea and the rest as they say is history.  IT was innovative to marry it with the OS of a personal computer, but the "Apple invented Windows interface" is just not true. 

That is one of the reasons that Apple did not win their suit against Microsoft when they sued them for "stealing" their windows idea. 

Just my humble $3.64 gallon of gas knowledge conversion effort for a Friday morning.

Apple licensed it from Xerox.  Microsoft stole it from Xerox.

[BanditVol]

They're very good at understanding what the consumer wants..in advance.

Of course they're innovative. Apple was a computer company. They weren't experts in music. They innovated the world of how we listen to and buy music. Then they innovated how we use the cell phone, not being a cell phone company. They simply don't box themselves into a hole.

No disagreements at all, but can they keep this up without Jobs?  Where were they in the 90s without him?  I know what I think, but of course opinions can vary.

[BanditVol]

I hate to burst your Apple bubble but Jobs and Apple did not invent the icon / windows universe.  The interface was invented by Xerox at their PARC center.  Xerox maintained a tech development center called PARC and JObs happened to see a software OS system that was being considered for use with copier interfaces to enable people to use a copier without being able to read English.  That was the Window/Icon interface and Jobs "stole" the idea and the rest as they say is history.  IT was innovative to marry it with the OS of a personal computer, but the "Apple invented Windows interface" is just not true. 

That is one of the reasons that Apple did not win their suit against Microsoft when they sued them for "stealing" their windows idea. 

Just my humble $3.64 gallon of gas knowledge conversion effort for a Friday morning.

Now that you mention it I did see the thing about Xerox on a documentary recently, but two things.  One, Jobs still had the moxie to recognize what a great idea it was and use it, and two, Apple did not lose the lawsuit because Xerox had the idea first.  They lost because the judge ruled...correctly...that you can't steal a "look and feel" in software.  You can only steal actual code.  I don't think it had anything to do with Xerox.