Color me skeptical. What I do know is that I'm a Netflix customer now. On Sept. 1 I will not be. If Netflix successfully kills DVD, fine. I'll be back because I won't have a choice. In the meantime, I'm not going to pay those prices. As a casual movie watcher, it isn't worth it to me.
My wife and I are on the same page you are. We are very casual movie watchers, and the monthly increase was enough to ditch Netflix DVD plan. We are still thinking about keeping the streaming plan; mostly for kid's shows and the occasional TV show we like to watch. We can always go to the Red Box rental kiosks that are close to us to watch any recent movie.