The latest from ESPN Bubble Watch

[Black Diamond Vol]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Tennessee [18-13 (10-6), RPI: 75, SOS: 40] It is now time to take the Vols' at-large chances seriously. Quite frankly, though the NCAA eliminated the official "last X games" criteria two years ago, it won't be able to look at UT's 8-1 record in its last nine games -- with the only loss coming at Alabama -- and not be impressed. Clearly, this is a different group with mid-season enrollee Jarnell Stokes in the mix, one that owns a season sweep of the long-since-locked Florida Gators. The RPI has crept down into reasonable territory (it's still high, but not as high as it used to be), and while a 3-10 road/neutral record is prohibitive, four top-50 wins is more than many bubble teams can boast. It will be interesting to see how the committee handles this team, which has in the course of two months morphed from an obvious rebuilding effort to the No. 2 seed in the SEC tournament. At least one win in New Orleans is likely a must (especially because it will come against the winner of Ole Miss-Auburn), and a strong showing in the semifinals might help too. A lot could happen around the bubble line this week of course, but it looks like two wins would be enough. Who woulda thunk it?

[ReVOLver]

It is playing out just about like I thought it would... a win over Vandy was enough to get UT in the conversation but not enough to get them in. Last week I thought it had to be two wins but now I'm thinking one will do it since there is a groundswell of support... as long as the bubble doesn't get flooded with teams who looked destined for automatic bids. This means we don't need anybody from the bottom 8 of the SEC slipping through and winning the tournament and we need the teams in Clockwork's post from the other day to hold the line.

In short... if we get one win in New Orleans, we are right there on the bubble with a good chance, especially if that win is over Ole Miss. If we can get two wins, I think we are in no matter what. If we don't get any, we are going to the NIT.

[Black Diamond Vol]

It is playing out just about like I thought it would... a win over Vandy was enough to get UT in the conversation but not enough to get them in. Last week I thought it had to be two wins but now I'm thinking one will do it since there is a groundswell of support... as long as the bubble doesn't get flooded with teams who looked destined for automatic bids. This means we don't need anybody from the bottom 8 of the SEC slipping through and winning the tournament and we need the teams in Clockwork's post from the other day to hold the line.

In short... if we get one win in New Orleans, we are right there on the bubble with a good chance, especially if that win is over Ole Miss. If we can get two wins, I think we are in no matter what. If we don't get any, we are going to the NIT.

While I definitely want to make the dance, the NIT wouldn't be a bad consolation prize.  Not only can we win the whole thing, but we'd probably get home games all the way up until the semis in NYC.  We have a huge arena and an energized fanbase that would buy tickets, and that would be appealing to the committee and ESPN. 

The big question regarding the NCAAT: If we make the field, would we be in one of the play-in games?  That wouldn't neccessarily be bad thing- VCU went from a play-in game all the way to the Final Four last year.

[ReVOLver]

While I definitely want to make the dance, the NIT wouldn't be a bad consolation prize.  Not only can we win the whole thing, but we'd probably get home games all the way up until the semis in NYC.  We have a huge arena and an energized fanbase that would buy tickets, and that would be appealing to the committee and ESPN. 

The big question regarding the NCAAT: If we make the field, would we be in one of the play-in games?  That wouldn't neccessarily be bad thing- VCU went from a play-in game all the way to the Final Four last year.

If we get in as a 1 win bubble team, I would say the odds of playing in a play-in game are pretty good. I think 2 wins gets us up to at least a 12 seed.

I have those same thoughts about the NIT. I would definitely rather make the tourney, but if we end up in the NIT and the guys take it the right way, they will be the best team in that field.

[Black Diamond Vol]

If we get in as a 1 win bubble team, I would say the odds of playing in a play-in game are pretty good. I think 2 wins gets us up to at least a 12 seed.

I have those same thoughts about the NIT. I would definitely rather make the tourney, but if we end up in the NIT and the guys take it the right way, they will be the best team in that field.

The NIT is about a team's mindset as much as talent.  How often do you see a talented team that is disappointed not to make the NCAAT go to the NIT and flame out early?  I don't think we would have to worry about that. 

How does the committee select the play-in teams, anyway?  I know it's not strictly the bottom two in each region anymore.  Isn't like the bottom four at-large teams vs. the bottom four automatic qualifiers?

[ReVOLver]

The NIT is about a team's mindset as much as talent.  How often do you see a talented team that is disappointed not to make the NCAAT go to the NIT and flame out early?  I don't think we would have to worry about that. 

How does the committee select the play-in teams, anyway?  I know it's not strictly the bottom two in each region anymore.  Isn't like the bottom four at-large teams vs. the bottom four automatic qualifiers?

I really don't know and suspect it's arbitrary as hell.

[Black Diamond Vol]

I really don't know and suspect it's arbitrary as hell.

This doesn't clear it up too much, but here's what it says on Wikipedia:

Although the new format, beginning in 2011, expands to four opening round games, not all games necessarily feed into a #16 seed for the winner; nor, does each of the four regions necessarily have an opening round game. In 2011, for example, the East Region featured two opening round games and the West Region featured none. Also, the winners in two of the openers were awarded a #11 seed and #12 seed, respectively, in their designated region.

2011: On March 15, UNC-Asheville (UNCA) defeated UA-Little Rock (UALR) 81-77 in overtime, advancing to the #16 seed in the Southeast Region to face #1 seeded Pittsburgh. Interestingly, at the time, UNCA had been involved in the only other opening round game to end in overtime in 2003. In the East Region, Clemson defeated UAB 70-52, advancing to the #12 seed to face #5 seeded West Virginia. On March 16, also in the East Region, UT-San Antonio defeated Alabama State 70-61, advancing to the #16 seed to play #1 seeded Ohio State. In the Southwest Region, VCU defeated USC 59-46, advancing to the #11 seed to face #6 seeded Georgetown. VCU ultimately advanced to the Final Four becoming the first opening round winner to compete beyond its second game.

http://www.youtube.com/v/pQiOs8j9foA

[ReVOLver]

Has nothing to do with the thread but anytime somebody posts Office clips I have to weigh in with this one...

http://www.youtube.com/v/K545bA6Dr3A?version=3&hl=en_US

[Volznut]

IMO we'll be better than a 12 seed if we get in. Around a 10

[ReVOLver]

IMO we'll be better than a 12 seed if we get in. Around a 10

"at least"

[BanditVol]

I'm not totally optimistic that two wins will do it.  We've been screwed too many times in the past.

But I think we do win two.

[ct4vols]

IMO i say if we win one we should be in but if ESPN has anything to do with it we wont be in the dance! I think we should not even leave it up to the committee and just win the sec tournament and show everyone the potential for this team and to prove to all those who doubt that we are a completely different team then we were at the beginning of the year!

[PirateVOL]

IMO i say if we win one we should be in but if ESPN has anything to do with it we wont be in the dance! I think we should not even leave it up to the committee and just win the sec tournament and show everyone the potential for this team and to prove to all those who doubt that we are a completely different team then we were at the beginning of the year!

why do you think espn has a say in the dance?  The selection committee has shown they are capricious enough on their own ...