Sam Venable nails it

[BanditVol]

http://www.knoxnews.com/news/2012/nov/20/sam-venable-ut-surely-would-take-a-vacate/

Looking back....sigh.   

I was in the trenches in 2007, arguing that it was a good season.  Many pointed to the huge losses to bama and UF as evidence that we were falling behind - very true, but who knew then that those two coaches would win 3 of the next 5 MNCs, and essentially decide the MNC in the SECCG for two consecutive years (2008-09)?   

It was  a combination of younger, more impatient fans along with older fans who could not help noticing that Phil had slipped a bit.  But I did not want a change.  My position was not based on simple loyalty to Phil or having orange blinders on - I actually looked at programs like Nebraska, which were also strong in the 90s, and noticed that changing from a successful coach did not work for them either.  In fact, in 2008, Michigan was really struggling after Lloyd Carr had resigned the year before.

Thus, I staked out an extreme position in 2008, defending Fulmer as long as it could be done, even to the point of being called delusional.  But at 3-6 it was a lost cause.  No need to rehash the rest of it...but I will say this.  Contrast the reaction of the players in 2008...open defiance at the news conference and some serious upset and crying with the nonchalant attitude from the players this week, and you can see that we really have lost something, and it's more than just a coach. 

If only Fulmer had eked out a win in 2008 vs. UCLA and Auburn, we would be much better off today.  It could not possibly have gone worse than this (well, okay, maybe if Kiffin had brought MAJOR sanctions) but this is about as bad as it gets...I HOPE!

So bringing us to today, I like the way Hart has handled the entire season and the way he is handling the coaching search.   He has been at FSU and bama, so I trust him to at least have some good football sense.  Onward and upward.   

I think that at least, the odds that it gets worse, are vanishingly small.   It WILL get better...it has to!   

[101stDad]

Here we go again, and no, Venable didn't nail it. 

It was the right decision in 2008 to let Fulmer go.  It was obvious that what made him successful - recruiting - was not at the same level that it had been earlier in his career.  Two losing seasons in 4 years was proof that he couldn't win with the talent he was bringing in, and there was not a lot of indication that it was going to show improvement any time soon. 

The wrong decision was in hiring Kiffin, then compounding the issue by following it up with hiring Dooley. 

How many times is the Fulmer thing going to be hashed and rehashed? That is old news, and Fulmer is not going to be rehired as UT's coach. 

Time to move on from that.  You know the saying about hindsight.   

[Clockwork Orange]

Here we go again, and no, Venable didn't nail it. 

It was the right decision in 2008 to let Fulmer go.  It was obvious that what made him successful - recruiting - was not at the same level that it had been earlier in his career.  Two losing seasons in 4 years was proof that he couldn't win with the talent he was bringing in, and there was not a lot of indication that it was going to show improvement any time soon. 

The wrong decision was in hiring Kiffin, then compounding the issue by following it up with hiring Dooley. 

How many times is the Fulmer thing going to be hashed and rehashed? That is old news, and Fulmer is not going to be rehired as UT's coach. 

Time to move on from that.  You know the saying about hindsight.   

There is a lot of revisionism going on among UT fans, and it's hard to blame them really. These last four years have been brutal and it's so easy to look back and think firing Fulmer was the wrong move, even among those who supported the move wholeheartedly when it happened. My dad, of all people, has been joking about the "Miss Me yet?" images of Fulmer floating around, and he wanted to run Fulmer out on a rail for years before it happened.

I'm with you on that one. Fulmer had to go . . . we just didn't realize how incompetent Hamilton was going to be in his efforts to replace him.

[PirateVOL]

There is a lot of revisionism going on among UT fans, and it's hard to blame them really. These last four years have been brutal and it's so easy to look back and think firing Fulmer was the wrong move, even among those who supported the move wholeheartedly when it happened. My dad, of all people, has been joking about the "Miss Me yet?" images of Fulmer floating around, and he wanted to run Fulmer out on a rail for years before it happened.

I'm with you on that one. Fulmer had to go . . . we just didn't realize how incompetent Hamilton was going to be in his efforts to replace him.

I'm feeling a disturbance in the force I am ...

[BanditVol]

Here we go again, and no, Venable didn't nail it. 

Venable is one of the most respected, or maybe THE most respected, media figures in the Knoxville area that writes on football, or so I have always thought.  Yes, he nailed it.

Your critique is a bit off-base.  I am not saying Fulmer should not have been fired.  Even in 2008, I said it was no longer possible to defend him.

I am definitely saying we would have been far better off if Fulmer had done better in 2008 and retained his job.  That's all.

And yes, the choice of Kiffin factors into that, since he was, in hindsight, a TERRIBLE choice.  But I wasn't impressed with him from Day 1, and other choices would not necessarily have been the "right choice".  Thus my example of Michigan and Nebraska....just making a change doesn't really guarantee ANYTHING.  Look at Michigan specifically...they tried Rodriquez, who bama actually wanted OVER SABAN.  Did it work?  No, they have moved on.  Speaking of bama, it took them 5 tries to get it right after Stallings.  And so on.

My perception is that the odds of improving a situation with a coaching change, any coaching change, are less than 50%, Iif the program has had a run of success in the last decade and so higher expectations.  Replacing a guy that won the MNC...far less.  That's just hard for anyone to do, period.

So the odds that anyone would have done better than Fulmer, even the 2002-2008 Fulmer, were not that great IMO at that time.  And we would be better off if Fulmer had limped along another couple of years.  Who knows, if he not tried to go to the spread 2008 might have been different.

You're right...time to move on.  I only posted this because I like Venable and he is stating the obvious...giving that LANE KIFFIN was the choice to replace Fulmer, we would have been better off not replacing him even as badly as 2008 went.  And that's not entirely hindsight.

The other reason I posted it is because it emphasizes the importance of this next selection, though of course that's pretty obvious.

A key difference is that a new coach at least doesn't have some unrealistic expectations to live up to, at least not for the first couple of years.  It will be extremely difficult for a new coach to do worse than Dooley. 

Not much of a solace for the last 4 years, but it's what we got right now.

[UTnbama]

 Fulmer in his later years accumulated an over 80% loss rate to the better coaches in the SEC, our rivals. That should get anyone fired. Thank goodness we were finally able to blast the old home boys Majors and Fulmer out, when they let the program decline. Not taking away from their achievements here, but they were amply rewarded for their contributions....boy were they rewarded.

[101stDad]

Venable is one of the most respected, or maybe THE most respected, media figures in the Knoxville area that writes on football, or so I have always thought.  Yes, he nailed it.

Venable used to be one of the better writers at the News-Sentinel, primarily when he was the outdoor editor.  He's not any longer.  He's turned in to a bitter whiner.   

[Inspector Vol]

What has happened it what I feared would happen. Rarely do schools make a home run hire to replace a coach as successful as Fulmer.  We have went through 2 so far. We may go through another.....who knows???

[101stDad]

What has happened it what I feared would happen. Rarely do schools make a home run hire to replace a coach as successful as Fulmer.  We have went through 2 so far. We may go through another.....who knows???

But, IV - here's what you have to look at:  Fulmer was very successful in his first 10 years, and then not so much his last 6, and he had 2 losing seasons in his last 4. 

So if you compare the last 4 under Kiffin/Dooley to Fulmer's first 10 or so, you are correct.  If you compare the last 4 to Fulmer's last 4, you aren't. 

[droner]

Rarely do schools make a home run hire to replace a coach as successful as Fulmer.  We have went through 2 so far. We may go through another.....who knows???

Hell no!

They better get this thing right this time. I'm getting too old to keep going through this crap. 

[PirateVOL]

I'm getting too old to keep going through this crap. 

Yep, dirt looks up to ya!

[BanditVol]

Let me add this...I specifically cited Nebraska and Michigan because I consider them our "peers" in the respect that they both won the MNC at about the same time we did. Previously it was pointed out that these were not SEC teams.  Doesn't matter.  They won the MNC or rather split it the year before we did.

Of course Florida won it in 1996 and they definitely would be not only "peers" but rivals.  In fact, Florida hiring Urban is often cited as the example of how to do it.  But even UF had to go through Zook to get to Urban, and they have a much better recruiting base.   I didn't mention UF above because that comparison is beaten to death, but I will go ahead and introduce it here for completeness.

So who won it in 1999?  FSU.  A great example, because they held on to Bowden far too long.  A perfect example, actually.  So would we be better going through a decade of mediocrity of Fulmer to get to a Jimbo Fisher?  I don't know, but FSU certainly tried a different approach of bringing in an "HC in waiting".  I would not complain if I were an FSU fan.  They may actually have a shot at the MNC this year in spite of losing to NC State.  You can bring up the easier ACC schedule, but that cuts both ways.  It both explains their success this year, but also why Bowden's FSU in the later years wasn't quite as unsuccessful as Fulmer having two losing seasons in four years.

Finally, you can look at another top program, Texas, where the MNC occured long after ours in 2005, but make a nice parallel because Mack Brown is often compared to Fulmer - a good recruiter and perhaps average coach.  Fulmer might be a slightly better coach than Brown, because Brown has recruited far better, which could explain why Texas hasn't fallen quite as far as Tennessee.  Texas is interesting because they tried the "HC in waiting" and it didn't work.  So Texas is a case study that is still happening.  My take...they are better off waiting for Brown to retire on his own, provided it doesn't take more than  a year or two, as opposed to forcing him out.

Anyway...my main point is that I think there was a perception among fans in 2008 that all you have to do is get the right coach, because everyone was looking at Saban and Meyers.  But I think UF and bammer just both happened to hit the lottery at the same time.  That two coaching transitions in such a short period of time in the same conference would do so well is odds-defying.  IMO.

But again...we can hardly do worse than Dooley, and I don't care who the coach is, I expect a winning season at a minimum next year.  But I agree...this might be the most important hiring in our history (well after Neyland anyway, lol).

[BanditVol]

What has happened it what I feared would happen. Rarely do schools make a home run hire to replace a coach as successful as Fulmer.  We have went through 2 so far. We may go through another.....who knows???

That's all I am saying, really.  One thing I know for sure...we can probably do better than the last 3 years, no matter what.