First things first: a pick-me-up. This team has been painful to watch at times, particularly on offense, and I think we were all disappointed to lose the three games we did-- all were winnable. BUT . . . a note on those three teams (Ok St, Georgetown, UVA): all have Top 20 defenses in terms of schedule-adjusted efficiency, all are top 50 overall, and all were away from TBA. Ok St is #18 overall by Kenpom and has the #8 defense; UVA is #25 overall and has the #17 defense; Georgetown is #42 overall and has the #13 defense. So what does this mean? It means that these are losses that should be expected from a team that struggles to hit shots, and all three will be decent opponents come selection time based on RPI (don't worry about UVA's current RPI ranking . . . their ACC schedule will improve that tremendously).
FWIW, Memphis has the #42 defense.
Now, some updated individual stats. I've added a few columns here that I think are revealing. Comments will follow.
PPG RPG APG eFG% Ortg Pts/10 Reb/10 A/10 Blk/10 S/10 TO/10 F/10
Golden,Trae......... 12.5 3.4 4.5 41.0% 104.8 4.16 1.12 1.52 0.00 0.09 0.64 0.55
Richardson,Josh..... 7.4 5.1 0.5 54.2% 105.6 2.52 1.74 0.16 0.25 0.28 0.72 0.81
McBee,Skylar........ 6.6 1.3 0.9 45.1% 98.5 2.44 0.47 0.33 0.00 0.07 0.23 0.60
McRae,Jordan........ 10.3 3.0 1.7 46.7% 103.4 3.78 1.10 0.64 0.27 0.20 0.57 0.60
Stokes,Jarnell...... 11.4 7.4 1.3 57.5% 123.4 4.19 2.72 0.47 0.34 0.37 0.70 0.81
Hall,Kenny.......... 6.8 6.3 0.4 53.3% 107.8 2.98 2.76 0.18 0.26 0.13 0.92 1.14
Makanjuola,Yemi..... 2.5 3.4 0.3 52.4% 130.4 2.59 3.43 0.28 0.46 0.09 0.46 2.41
Chievous,Quinton.... 1.7 2.7 0.1 28.3% 62.0 1.49 2.38 0.10 0.00 0.20 0.40 1.09
Edwards,D'Montre.... 3.2 2.4 0.0 37.9% 83.2 2.90 2.20 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.30 1.40
Moore,Armani........ 1.7 0.8 0.7 46.2% 73.2 2.50 1.17 1.00 0.50 0.50 1.50 1.83
Lopez,Brandon....... 0.4 0.7 0.1 20.0% 44.7 0.91 1.52 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.91 0.30
Reese,Derek......... 7.0 0.0 1.0 37.5% 77.2 3.04 0.00 0.43 0.43 0.87 0.43 0.00
Murphy,Rob.......... 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Note that the above is sorted by minutes played. Ortg is "offensive rating" and is an estimate of an advanced tempo-free stat that measures overall offensive effectiveness using points, assists, rebounds, and possessions used. Also note that the last seven columns are in the form
[stat] per 10 minutes of floor time.
Some notes:
* Yemi has the best Ortg on the team and only Stokes is in the same ballpark. His rating of 130.4 would be in the vicinity of Chris Lofton's. Notably he's quite low in a stat I did not include above, which is "possessions used." This is an offensive stat that basically measures how many possessions the player ENDED, via a shot or a turnover. Yemi only has 28.8 for the entire season; six guys on the team have 75+ and Trae has 163.4. So Yemi is very efficient when the ball comes his way on offense but he and his teammates are quite selective about when to go to him. When you are that selective in finishing possessions it's a bit easier to be efficient. When you're Chris Lofton and expected to shoot 15+ times per game efficiency is harder to come by.
* The fact that we only have two players above 110 in O-rating speaks volumes about our offensive woes. Five games into the season we had SIX players above 110.
* eFG% is pathetic. You do not want to be below 50% in this stat no matter what position you play and three of our top four players (in terms of minutes) are below 50%. Josh Richardson is the only guard/wing on the team above 50%. We just can't shoot for shizzle.
* In terms of points-per-10 minutes, it's obvious who the scorers are supposed to be: Stokes, Golden, and McRae.
* Best rebounders adjusted by floor time (in regular rotation): Yemi, Hall, Stokes, in that order. I've thought all season that Jarnell wasn't rebounding like he ought to be for his size, athleticism, and body control, and this bears that out. Per his average, he'd have to play 37 minutes to get to 10 rebounds . . . that's not good enough. He's only gotten double digit rebounds twice.
* Best shot blockers by floor time (in regular rotation): Yemi, Stokes, McRae, Hall, Richardson, and the last three have virtually identical numbers. It's interesting that we have two wings blocking shots, but anyone who has watched a few games has seen it in action. McRae and Richardson are rangy and good leapers.
* Steals by floor time (in regular rotation): Stokes, Richardson, and McRae. All three of these guys show up in both defensive stat categories so they seem to be working hard. It's unusual to see a post like Stokes lead in this stat . . . also unusual to see your PG and one of your quickest guys, Golden, near the bottom.
* Turnovers by floor time (in regular rotation): considering that Golden handles the ball so much more often than everyone else, his turnovers have not really been a problem. Richardson's are high, and same for Stokes and especially Hall. Skyler doesn't turn the ball over, but then he doesn't touch it as much without shooting.
* Fouls by floor time (in regular rotation): LOL. Look at Yemi. 2.41 fouls every 10 minutes. That means that on average, he would foul out in his 21st minute in the game. As it turns out, he has yet to foul out . . . and has yet to play 21 minutes. This finishes the picture of Yemi as a basketball player . . . he's a banger, will play tough defense and rebound, and doesn't look to score unless he's in great position. If this team had more scorers I'd say that'd be perfect for a post player off the bench.
* Assists by floor time (in regular rotation): Trae has more than double the rate of anyone else, which isn't surprising. Your PG should be dishing alot. It would be awfully nice to have another guard above 1 assist per 10 minutes, though. Stokes's number is actually pretty decent for a post player.
So in the end, what do we have? Stokes is the closest thing we have to a reliable go-to scorer, but he turns the ball over too much. From observation, we've also had trouble getting him the ball. Nobody else on the team that uses a significant number of possessions is playing efficient offensive basketball. Richardson has a turnover problem and none of the other guards can hit a basket worth a damn. On the surface it looks like one can make an argument that Yemi deserves more PT, but his propensity to foul probably limits that and I would guess that more touches would lower his efficiency anyway.
These next four games will do much to set us up for either an NCAA run or an NIT disappointment. If we can come out of it 2-2 or better, I'll feel pretty okay sitting at 10+ wins with 15 to play. We can do that by holding serve at home before going on the road to Alabama and Kentucky, but neither Memphis nor Ole Miss will be a pushover. It's also possible we sneak a win in Tuscaloosa since Bammer has struggled to start the year. I'm glad we get them fairly early, and same goes for the road game in Lexington.
