It's not that Alabama doesn't sign 3-star players

[Clockwork Orange]

I did a little breakdown of their roster and ours (only the scholarship players, excluding kickers since they are rated quite differently) and below is what I found. This is using rivals and as a little primer for those of you who don't follow, rivals gives rating in addition to stars so the data are a little more granular (summarized/edited by me):

5*, 6.1: considered one of the elite prospects in the country, generally among the nation's top 25 players overall;
4*, 6.0-5.8: high-major prospect; considered one of the nation's top 300 prospects;
3*, 5.7-5.5: among the top 750 or so prospects in the country; high-to-mid-major prospect;
2*, 5.4-5.0: Division I prospect; considered a mid-major prospect

Here's the breakdown of players by rating:

5.3: Tennessee 2, Alabama 0
5.4: Tennessee 4, Alabama 0
5.5: Tennessee 6, Alabama 0
5.6: Tennessee 15, Alabama 7
5.7: Tennessee 18, Alabama 16
5.8: Tennessee 17, Alabama 23
5.9: Tennessee 10, Alabama 15
6.0: Tennessee 2, Alabama 7
6.1: Tennessee 0, Alabama 9

Math or stat nerds, it's interesting to note that both of these form somewhat of a normal distribution, with UT's peak near 5.7 and Bama's near 5.8. That's very close to the averages: UT's is 5.69, Bama's is 5.83. Also, 61 of Alabama's 77 players and 60 of Tennessee's 74 players are in the 5.6 to 5.9 range. That's about 80-85% for each team.

So those don't seem that far apart, right?

But when you look at the distribution above you see two things that are significant. First, that Tennessee has 12 players below 5.6 and Alabama has none; these are 2* and borderline 3* players and we've given our remaining 15-20% of scholarships to them. Second, you see that Alabama has 16 players higher than 5.9 and Tennessee has 2. These are your 5* and high 4* recruits and Alabama's leftover 15-20% is there.

So in the end, what's the difference (besides coaching of course, which is incredibly obvious)? Essentially, 15-20% of our roster consists of mid-major prospects and 15-20% of theirs are elite, All-American types. That's the real difference between the two, and of course in the end this difference is substantial on the field.

So it's not that we sign some 3*-level players; even the elite teams have a number of them on their rosters, and many contribute. It's that we do not have that core group of elite players-- the difference-makers. We probably won't be able to sign many guys from that group until we win some football games, which you can do with the roster we have. You just can't break into competing for championships without the difference-makers.

FWIW, these are Alabama's 6.0-6.1 players and then ours, followed by our sub-5.6 players:

Code: (Alabama)

Chris Black	6.0	Wide Receiver
Amari Cooper	6.0	Wide Receiver
Reggie Ragland	6.0	Linebacker
Brent Calloway	6.0	Running Back/Tight End
Tana Patrick	6.0	Linebacker
Jeoffrey Pagan	6.0	Defensive Line
Barrett Jones	6.0	Offensive Line
Landon Collins	6.1	Defensive Back
Eddie Williams	6.1	Defensive Back
T.J. Yeldon	6.1	Running Back
Dee Hart	6.1	Running Back
D.J. Fluker	6.1	Offensive Line
Dee Milliner	6.1	Defensive Back
H. Clinton-Dix	6.1	Defensive Back
Cyrus Kouandjio	6.1	Offensive Line
Nico Johnson	6.1	Linebacker

Code: (Tennessee)

C. Patterson	6.0	WR
Marlon Walls	6.0	DL

Code: (sub-5.6)

Raiques Crump	5.3	LB
Dontavis Sapp	5.3	LB
Cody Blanc	5.4	WR
Gregory Clark	5.4	DL
Carson Anderson	5.4	OL
Allan Carson	5.4	DL
Daniel Gray	5.5	DB
Christ. Harris	5.5	LB
Matt Darr	5.5	P
Ben Bartholomew	5.5	FB
Herman Lathers	5.5	LB
Mychal Rivera	5.5	TE
Devrin Young	5.5	TB

[Volznut]

It's all probabilities. Your chance of getting a good SEC level player is higher with a 5.8 or better than it is a 5.8 or lower.

[Clockwork Orange]

It's all probabilities. Your chance of getting a good SEC level player is higher with a 5.8 or better than it is a 5.8 or lower.

Yep. There are 2-star players that have long careers in the NFL and 5-star players who suck ass, but as you work up through the rivals ratings the probability of success shifts tremendously. The bulk of our roster may not be that far from Alabama's but we've taken a dozen longshots and they've taken a dozen guys as close to locks as you can get.

Oh, and they coach them up tremendously. If you watch Alabama play and it doesn't strike you how smart those guys are on the football field, you're not paying attention . . . and that has very little to do with their rivals rating. In the end, some of our woes can be fixed with the roster as is, so long as the new staff can coach them up. But that only goes so far.

[VinnieVOL]

Excellent analysis.

[UTnbama]

Great work CO! Here's my thoughts about recruiting and our future. I believe for us to be competitive in the SEC on a regular basis, we're going to eventually have to consistently rank within the top 5 in recruiting in the SEC. That means at least the top 10 nationally. Would you agree?

[Volznut]

Yep. There are 2-star players that have long careers in the NFL and 5-star players who suck ass, but as you work up through the rivals ratings the probability of success shifts tremendously. The bulk of our roster may not be that far from Alabama's but we've taken a dozen longshots and they've taken a dozen guys as close to locks as you can get.

Oh, and they coach them up tremendously. If you watch Alabama play and it doesn't strike you how smart those guys are on the football field, you're not paying attention . . . and that has very little to do with their rivals rating. In the end, some of our woes can be fixed with the roster as is, so long as the new staff can coach them up. But that only goes so far.

Another thing that strikes me is their fat faces and jaws. Bama's got serious HGH juicing going on. Might as well, no one tests for it (or can do it effectively anyway).

[UTnbama]

Another thing that strikes me is their fat faces and jaws. Bama's got serious HGH juicing going on. Might as well, no one tests for it (or can do it effectively anyway).

That reminds me, read an article the other day about Steroid use in Colleges and it seemed that of all colleges reviewed. Alabama had the most lax to pretty much nonexistent penalties for a positive test.

[BanditVol]

Another thing that strikes me is their fat faces and jaws. Bama's got serious HGH juicing going on. Might as well, no one tests for it (or can do it effectively anyway).

You know I noticed that fat face on Lacy and thought he looked way too similar to Richardson and some of their other players.  I think you nailed it.