The decline of UT football in a graph

[Clockwork Orange]

I went through all of UT's draft picks since the early 90s and tied them back to their incoming recruiting class. Not surprisingly, they paint a telling picture:



Now, the last few classes still have a chance to put guys into the draft, but I would argue that the 2009 class may stay at zero (or at most be 1 or 2). 2010-2012 may indeed have a number of draft picks and that remains to be seen. Also note that the 1992 class was the Majors/Fulmer transition year. I don't know if that gets attributed to Majors or to Fulmer but it was an outstanding class.

Any surprise that the on-field performance declined after about 2004?

[101stDad]

Pretty much tells the tale.  Little talent = little on the field success. 

[Volznut]

Nope, no surprise there. Talent equals success. The biggest thing a coach can do to ensure success is to get good recruiters in his staff and recruit like gangbusters. especially in the brutal SEC. That's really why Saban is winning, he gets the talent.

[Clockwork Orange]

Other interesting tidbits from the data (all NFL drafts since 1970) . . .

Drafted UT players by position:

Code:

LB	34
OL	34
WR	34
DB	29
RB	22
DE	18
DT	15
QB	11
TE	7
K	6
P	6
FB	3

Obviously the WR numbers are the most impressive since only 2-3 were on the field at a given time for most of this time period, but the LB number is pretty damn impressive too. In fact, UT had at least one LB drafted from 8 consecutive recruiting classes from 1995-2002, and 11 out of 14 recruiting classes from 1991-2004. In those 14 years, UT recruited a total of 13 LBs that were drafted, including five in the first and second rounds.

I still marvel at the 1997 recruiting class at RB: Jamal Lewis, Travis Henry, Travis Stephens, and Dominique Stevenson. All four were drafted, though Stevenson as a LB.

Next tidbit: Majors and staff recruited 86 draft picks in 15 years (5.7 per year). Fulmer and staff recruited 79 draft picks in 17 years (4.6 per year). I would not have guessed that. The only other coach with enough track record to measure, Bill Battle, recruited 25 picks in 7 years (3.6 per year).

Related tidbit: In terms of being the player's final coach before going pro, Majors had 81 in 15 years (5.4 per year), Fulmer had 90 in 17 years (5.3 per year), and Battle had 29 in 7 years (4.1 per year). Dooley had 7 in 3 years (2.3 per year) and Kiffin had 6 in 1 year.

There are a number of potential takeaways in the above numbers, but I'll leave that to someone else.

[101stDad]

Other interesting tidbits from the data (all NFL drafts since 1970) . . .

Drafted UT players by position:

Code:

LB	34
OL	34
WR	34
DB	29
RB	22
DE	18
DT	15
QB	11
TE	7
K	6
P	6
FB	3

Obviously the WR numbers are the most impressive since only 2-3 were on the field at a given time for most of this time period, but the LB number is pretty damn impressive too. In fact, UT had at least one LB drafted from 8 consecutive recruiting classes from 1995-2002, and 11 out of 14 recruiting classes from 1991-2004. In those 14 years, UT recruited a total of 13 LBs that were drafted, including five in the first and second rounds.

I still marvel at the 1997 recruiting class at RB: Jamal Lewis, Travis Henry, Travis Stephens, and Dominique Stevenson. All four were drafted, though Stevenson as a LB.

Next tidbit: Majors and staff recruited 86 draft picks in 15 years (5.7 per year). Fulmer and staff recruited 79 draft picks in 17 years (4.6 per year). I would not have guessed that. The only other coach with enough track record to measure, Bill Battle, recruited 25 picks in 7 years (3.6 per year).

Related tidbit: In terms of being the player's final coach before going pro, Majors had 81 in 15 years (5.4 per year), Fulmer had 90 in 17 years (5.3 per year), and Battle had 29 in 7 years (4.1 per year). Dooley had 7 in 3 years (2.3 per year) and Kiffin had 6 in 1 year.

There are a number of potential takeaways in the above numbers, but I'll leave that to someone else.

To be fair on the average number of players drafted per year and the total number drafted in comparison between the Majors and Fulmer years, you have to consider that during Majors' entire tenure at UT the NFL draft was 12 rounds long.  In 1993 the NFL shortened the draft to 8 rounds, and then in 1994 to the 7 rounds that it remains today.  So, taking that into consideration, there were more opportunities for Majors' players to be drafted.  Many in the Fulmer years who were free agent signees would have likely been drafted in rounds 8-12, as they were under Majors. 

[BanditVol]

To be fair on the average number of players drafted per year and the total number drafted in comparison between the Majors and Fulmer years, you have to consider that during Majors' entire tenure at UT the NFL draft was 12 rounds long.  In 1993 the NFL shortened the draft to 8 rounds, and then in 1994 to the 7 rounds that it remains today.  So, taking that into consideration, there were more opportunities for Majors' players to be drafted.  Many in the Fulmer years who were free agent signees would have likely been drafted in rounds 8-12, as they were under Majors. 

Good point.  It would be interesting to see the average ranks between Majors and Fulmer.  Fulmer was likely higher in that stat.....

[Clockwork Orange]

Good point.  It would be interesting to see the average ranks between Majors and Fulmer.  Fulmer was likely higher in that stat.....

You'd be right. Average overall pick #:

Battle: 186
Majors: 134
Fulmer: 108

But that punishes Majors for the draft structure, just as counting draftees punished Fulmer. To be fair, I sort of normalized. The modern draft has 250-260 picks, depending on how many compensatory picks there are. So for any pick in the top 260, I gave credit. For any pick below that, they simply weren't counted (since they would not have been taken in the modern draft).

# of picks per year, with avg pick in parentheses:

Battle: 2.4 (120)
Majors: 4.9 (109)
Fulmer: 4.6 (108)

So Majors still had more draft-worthy players per year, with an average pick # virtually identical to Fulmer's.

[101stDad]

Once he got past the first 4-5 years when he had to deal with a fairly empty cupboard, just as Butch Jones is having to deal with, Majors recruited really well.  Recruiting was never really his issue.  It was losing to Alabama all of those years that got him in the end.  He would always find a way to lose to somebody he shouldn't, but he would normally beat somebody he wasn't supposed to beat, too.  Majors teams were known for their inconsistency and inability to take the "next step" after tasting success. 

[Clockwork Orange]

Once he got past the first 4-5 years when he had to deal with a fairly empty cupboard, just as Butch Jones is having to deal with, Majors recruited really well.  Recruiting was never really his issue.  It was losing to Alabama all of those years that got him in the end.  He would always find a way to lose to somebody he shouldn't, but he would normally beat somebody he wasn't supposed to beat, too.  Majors teams were known for their inconsistency and inability to take the "next step" after tasting success. 

Yep. It's just surprising to me HOW well he recruited. We all know what Fulmer's reputation as a recruiter was,  but it's apparent that Majors and his staffs were even better at it. Of course, this also highlights the flipside, as you say . . . all that talent and it was apparent that Majors was not capable of taking things to the next level. Short-lived though it may have been, Fulmer was able to kick it up the final notch in his first 10 years and take advantage of the talent both he and his predecessor recruited.

[Creek Walker]

This thread is making me wish it was 1990 again, with an open upper deck on the north end zone and Gene Stallings bringing Alabama to Knoxville.

I'm a nostalgic fool when it comes to almost everything from the past, but I could listen to John Ward call those old games from the late '80s and early '90s at the end of the Majors era with goosebumps all day, every day. Of course that era is when I came of age as a Tennessee fan, so that's why it stands out a little more to me than even the glory years of the mid-to-late '90s.

[VinnieVOL]

This thread is making me wish it was 1990 again, with an open upper deck on the north end zone and Gene Stallings bringing Alabama to Knoxville.

I'm a nostalgic fool when it comes to almost everything from the past, but I could listen to John Ward call those old games from the late '80s and early '90s at the end of the Majors era with goosebumps all day, every day. Of course that era is when I came of age as a Tennessee fan, so that's why it stands out a little more to me than even the glory years of the mid-to-late '90s.

+1

[Clockwork Orange]

This thread is making me wish it was 1990 again, with an open upper deck on the north end zone and Gene Stallings bringing Alabama to Knoxville.

I'm a nostalgic fool when it comes to almost everything from the past, but I could listen to John Ward call those old games from the late '80s and early '90s at the end of the Majors era with goosebumps all day, every day. Of course that era is when I came of age as a Tennessee fan, so that's why it stands out a little more to me than even the glory years of the mid-to-late '90s.

I'll go ahead and make matters worse.  

Code: (Vols Drafted in the NFL, 1986-1995)

Draft	Name		Pos	Rd	Overall pick # 
------------------------------------------
1986	McGee, T	WR	1	21
1986	Powell, J	RB	6	166
1986	Swanson, E	WR	7	170
1986	Sims, T		DB	7	190
1986	Douglas, D	OL	8	204
1987	Wilkerson, B	OL	2	52
1987	Clinkscales, J	WR	9	233
1987	Jones, D	LB	10	262
1987	Reveiz, C	K	11	302
1988	McDaniel, T	DB	1	9
1988	Miller, A	WR	1	15
1988	Bruhin, J	OL	4	86
1988	Howard, W	RB	5	113
1988	Galbreath, H	OL	8	212
1988	Howard, J	OL	9	238
1989	DeLong, K	LB	1	28
1989	Francis, J	QB	6	140
1990	Cobb, R		RB	2	30
1990	Hobby, M	DE	3	74
1990	Still, E	OL	4	99
1990	Hayworth, T	LB	7	174
1990	Elmore, K	P	7	190
1990	Woods, T	WR	8	205
1991	McRae, C	OL	1	7
1991	Davis, A	OL	1	8
1991	Harper, A	WR	1	12
1991	Webb, C		RB	3	81
1991	Davis, H	DB	5	128
1991	Morgan, A	WR	5	134
1991	Amsler, G	FB	8	197
1991	Poles, R	RB	10	254
1991	Moore, V	WR	11	279
1992	Carter, D	DB	1	20
1992	Mims, C		DE	1	23
1992	Pickens, C	WR	2	31
1992	Smith, C	DE	2	51
1992	Lincoln, J	DB	3	80
1992	Myslinski, T	OL	4	109
1992	Bradley, S	DT	9	240
1992	Dafney, B	OL	9	247
1992	Hardy, D	LB	10	270
1993	Kelly, T	DE	1	27
1993	Thomas, D	DB	8	203
1994	Shuler, H	QB	1	3
1994	Garner, C	RB	2	42
1994	Fleming, C	WR	3	87
1994	Bonham, S	DT	3	93
1994	Morris, H	LB	5	152
1995	Stewart, J	RB	1	19
1995	Davis, R	DB	2	41
1995	Hayden, A	RB	4	104
1995	Talley, B	LB	4	133
1995	Colquitt, J	QB	6	191
1995	Williams, B	WR	7	212

[Creek Walker]

As good as Fulmer's teams were from '95-'98 I am still not convinced that those '89-'91 teams weren't equally talented. If not for Majors' penchant for blowing games he should've won (especially against Bama), there's no reason UT couldn't have won at least 2 national championships in that 3-year span.

[Clockwork Orange]

As good as Fulmer's teams were from '95-'98 I am still not convinced that those '89-'91 teams weren't equally talented. If not for Majors' penchant for blowing games he should've won (especially against Bama), there's no reason UT couldn't have won at least 2 national championships in that 3-year span.

Yep. It kinda makes you sick to look at the talent in that 10-year span I just posted. There were, thankfully, a few SEC titles there, but several of those teams should have been nationally competitive.

[BanditVol]

As good as Fulmer's teams were from '95-'98 I am still not convinced that those '89-'91 teams weren't equally talented. If not for Majors' penchant for blowing games he should've won (especially against Bama), there's no reason UT couldn't have won at least 2 national championships in that 3-year span.

We were really close in 1990. So close....but there is no such thing as a moral NC.  Well, actually there IS...or was until 1998, lol.