So I was looking at the Rivals ratings

[BanditVol]

http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/recruiting/teamrank/2015/all/all

Good news...we are back up to 7.  I think we have been as low as 11 or 12.  Jones has the recruiting thing down, apparently, and the good thing is that it's good whether he gets us there or if the next coach just has a stable of talent to build on.  For the record,I think Butch will make us very competitive though I am not sure he can do the NC, but who knows.

So...to evaluate things like this, I use a blog that Revolver posted about 4-5 years ago that I can no longer find.  What I remember is that it was a guy who evaluated recruiting ratings over a four year average for about 10-12 years.  That is, in any given year he averaged the recruiting score for the previous four years, and then compared heads-up records between the teams.  What I recall is that he found that if a team had a 4-year recruiting record that was about 400 points better than their opponent, it started to make a HUGE difference.  Smaller differences matterd, but I think the study showed that the win % was over 80% if the recruiting advantage was 400 points.

Now, I don't recall if that was based on Scout or Rivals (and as an aside, if anyone has a link to the study, I would greatly appreciate it, thanks!), but Scout's scoring is higher than Rivals, so 400 points would mean less.

But...if it was 400 points in Rivals, then that would mean that Tennessee is in line with 2-15, and we don't have to worry about those teams getting a huge advantage on us or vice versa.  But since I seem to remember that spread being less, I am thinking that the 400 points was based on Scout and not Rivals and the equivalent would be maybe 200 points since Scout is roughly twice as high as Rivals.  So in that case, there would really not be much of an advantage for teams 5-9 compared to Tennessee.  That sounds more reasonable and what I seem to recall from the study.

So...just a good way to try and rationalize recruiting ratings and tie them to reality.  The Boss thought highly of it IIRC (not Bruce...Revolver  ).

One last point though.  If the correct number is 200, please compare no 1 to no 2.  IT'S A FREAKING ONE THOUSAND POINT ADVANTAGE!!!!!

And this happens every year.

But ... nothing unusual about that.  Nothing at all. It's just that Saban's winning personality lures recruits.   

This is what I mean when I say their success is shocking.  From no. 2 you have to go down all the way to 19 to have a comparable advantage.  Yeah, *I* could freaking win an NC at bammmer.  OMFG!   

I know I beat this horse to death all the time, but when I see the numbers, I just have to say something.  This is not like Lance Armstrong winning 5 Tour de France races in a row after having cancer, it's FREAKING WORSE.    Wow.

[BanditVol]

Quick correction...I just checked Scout, and their numeric rating is not double of Rivals, it's only about 20% higher.  So I guess we could assume they used Scout for the comparison and make the difference 350 on Rivals, but I really need to find the blog.   

And in the way of disclaimer, the spread is less on Scout.  Bammer only has a 500 point advantage there, but that is still a substantial advantage.  Based on the study I mention above, it means that Bammer is an 80% favorite against ANYONE THEY PLAY, statistically speaking, based on 4-year averages of recruiting ratings.

[Black Diamond Vol]

FWIW, I think our class is going to get much better in terms of quality, but the quantity won't be what it was last year.  There are a lot of highly rated guys that we either lead for or are in their final two.  Like last year, we'll probably lose some current commits and replace them with guys who are better.

As for bammer, of course they're cheating, but as long as Emmert is around nothing will be done about it.  So it's not worth losing sleep over.

[BGHarper]

'Crutin going well. Saban now concentrating on the 2021 class.

BG

[PirateVOL]

'Crutin going well. Saban now concentrating on the 2021 class.

BG

Seed $$$????

[BGHarper]

Seed $$$????

Of course.

BG

[BanditVol]

FWIW, I think our class is going to get much better in terms of quality, but the quantity won't be what it was last year.  There are a lot of highly rated guys that we either lead for or are in their final two.  Like last year, we'll probably lose some current commits and replace them with guys who are better.

As for bammer, of course they're cheating, but as long as Emmert is around nothing will be done about it.  So it's not worth losing sleep over.

Oh I know.  It just that, if you are mathematically inclined, the numbers are simply shocking.  It's like a team winning the Super Bowl ten times in a row or someone hitting 10 HRs in a row against good pitching.

[BGHarper]

The Tide was under repeat offender status with the NCAA until recently. It makes zero, nada and no sense for them to violate the rules. No staff has complained about violations by Alabama.

Fact is no one works harder than the Tide staff. You guys know the type of work ethic Bama's head coach has. I know I won't change your minds but there you go. Ask Mike Farrell at Rivals if he thinks Bama cheats.

BG

[BGHarper]

Oh I know.  It just that, if you are mathematically inclined, the numbers are simply shocking.  It's like a team winning the Super Bowl ten times in a row or someone hitting 10 HRs in a row against good pitching.

The state is loaded with some great juniors this season, and both Alabama and probably Auburn should have a really good group coming in 2016.

BG

[BanditVol]

The Tide was under repeat offender status with the NCAA until recently. It makes zero, nada and no sense for them to violate the rules. No staff has complained about violations by Alabama.

Fact is no one works harder than the Tide staff. You guys know the type of work ethic Bama's head coach has. I know I won't change your minds but there you go. Ask Mike Farrell at Rivals if he thinks Bama cheats.

BG

On the contrary, there is smoke billowing out of every window.  Allegation after allegation, after allegation, and nothing happens.  

http://www.nevertoyieldfoundation.com/2013/where-theres-fire-theres-fire/

And it's well known that Mike Farrell is a bammer fan.  That right there is funny.  

Yeah, and Lance Armstrong wasn't cheating either.  He said so!  

[Black Diamond Vol]

On the contrary, there is smoke billowing out of every window.  Allegation after allegation, after allegation, and nothing happens.  

http://www.nevertoyieldfoundation.com/2013/where-theres-fire-theres-fire/

And it's well known that Mike Farrell is a bammer fan.  That right there is funny.  

Yeah, and Lance Armstrong wasn't cheating either.  He said so!  

Pictures.  The NCAA just loves them some photographic evidence- except when they don't.  One pic of Aaron Craft in Bruce Pearl's kitchen was enough to mobilize them to action.  But there's pic after pic of bammer players in what appear to be compromising situations.  Many of them are on the page you linked, and many, many more are not.  There are multiple players who have admitted over social media that they received extra benefits, only to recant the next day, saying that their "account was hacked" (cyber security appears to be a very big problem in that state).  Maybe all of this is innocent enough.  Maybe it proves nothing.  But doesn't it at least warrant a cursory look from our friends in Indy?  A phone call, anything?

[BGHarper]

On the contrary, there is smoke billowing out of every window.  Allegation after allegation, after allegation, and nothing happens.  
http://www.nevertoyieldfoundation.com/2013/where-theres-fire-theres-fire/

And it's well known that Mike Farrell is a bammer fan.  That right there is funny.  

Yeah, and Lance Armstrong wasn't cheating either.  He said so!  

You link the most insane Auburn site on the 'net as a source. Even many Auburn fans cringe on the mention of that site. C'mon Bandit, with your disgust of all things Bama combined with living in the state, it won't be long before your yells of Go Vols turn to War Eagle!
 
Farrell a Bama fan?!?! I don't think so. Hardly, but he can give a litany of reasons why that staff is so effective.

Btw, I know you were interested in visiting the west when over a month ago I said I was going on a trip there. One thing I do need to tell you. We were south of Yellowstone in the Grand Tetons travelling maybe 40 mph around a curve when we saw a large brown face sticking out of the bushes to our left. That face and then body proceeded to BOLT across the path of my car no more than 8 yards ahead of us. I SLAMMED on the brakes while a huge GRIZZLEY ran across the road into more brush about twenty yards off the road to the right.  No joke here...just an AWESOME sight just in front of me!
There are real reasons the speed limit is 45 or less, and the constant signs of Beware of Bears.

War Eagle, Bandit! J/K...

BG



 

[BanditVol]

You link the most insane Auburn site on the 'net as a source. Even many Auburn fans cringe on the mention of that site. C'mon Bandit, with your disgust of all things Bama combined with living in the state, it won't be long before your yells of Go Vols turn to War Eagle!
 

Maybe the site is overboard, but I recall the great majority of those incidents when they happened.  It's like I said, incident after incident after incident and the ... by a HUGE MARGIN... most successful recruiting run in the history of the NCAA continues without a beat.

I also have bammer fans who told me about the "slush fund" in 2008, who are now strangely silent about the entire thing.   



Cool grizzly story though.   

[Creek Walker]

Like Kentucky basketball, Alabama football is well known for having a disproportionately large number of fans who love the Tide so much they think they can do no wrong and are blind to reason. On the other side, Alabama football has haters who hate the program so much they think the team can do no right and are blind to reason.

Neither realizes how silly they sound.