Ranked 19th in the Coaches Poll.....18th in the AP

[Tnphil]

1. Bama
6. A&M
12 .Florida
17. Ark
19. UT
22. Ole Miss
23. LSU
24. Auburn

[Creek Walker]

IMO, that's about where we belong. You can't take away the wins over Florida or Georgia, or the win over Virginia Tech, which is looking better and better. But, OTOH, consider this: Among FBS teams, Tennessee ranks 80th in total offense, 64th in scoring offense, 88th in total defense and 84th in scoring defense. That's not a combination you typically see from a Top 25 team. 

[BanditVol]

IMO, that's about where we belong. You can't take away the wins over Florida or Georgia, or the win over Virginia Tech, which is looking better and better. But, OTOH, consider this: Among FBS teams, Tennessee ranks 80th in total offense, 64th in scoring offense, 88th in total defense and 84th in scoring defense. That's not a combination you typically see from a Top 25 team. 

Odd that we are so low in scoring offense, considering the big point totals against UF, uga and Va Tech.

I guess the slow starts against Ohio and Appy State really hurt the scoring average.

Again..those are good teams too though, even if they are FCS.

I'll take the Ws,and hope we can pad the stats the rest of the way.  Second in SOS, as usual.   

[Creek Walker]

Odd that we are so low in scoring offense, considering the big point totals against UF, uga and Va Tech.

I guess the slow starts against Ohio and Appy State really hurt the scoring average.

Again..those are good teams too though, even if they are FCS.

I'll take the Ws,and hope we can pad the stats the rest of the way.  Second in SOS, as usual.   

Well, they aren't FCS teams but, yes, they're certainly better than average mid-majors. However, they aren't any better than any of the other teams left on our schedule, sans Tennessee Tech. Given how we struggled to beat Appalachian State and Ohio, with the current injury situation added in, I shudder to think what's going to happen down the stretch. If we lose one of the next five, this fan base goes into meltdown mode and we have to seriously question just how far this program has advanced, after all...but if something doesn't change, that's a very real possibility. This season has been a lot of fun thus far, but we all knew you couldn't consistently fall behind by two or three scores and be a 12-0 team, or even an 11-1 team. What I think most of us didn't want to consider is that you can't play like that and be a 10-2 team, either.

[Tnphil]

Well, they aren't FCS teams but, yes, they're certainly better than average mid-majors. However, they aren't any better than any of the other teams left on our schedule, sans Tennessee Tech. Given how we struggled to beat Appalachian State and Ohio, with the current injury situation added in, I shudder to think what's going to happen down the stretch. If we lose one of the next five, this fan base goes into meltdown mode and we have to seriously question just how far this program has advanced, after all...but if something doesn't change, that's a very real possibility. This season has been a lot of fun thus far, but we all knew you couldn't consistently fall behind by two or three scores and be a 12-0 team, or even an 11-1 team. What I think most of us didn't want to consider is that you can't play like that and be a 10-2 team, either.

Good post...agree 100%. Butch has got to get a OC that can take the talent he has and do something with it. He's got to get out of his comfort zone and understand he's not in the MAC or Big East anymore. We have used Hurd in a way that he's not made for and unjust to him....we have wasted for the most part a talent like Kamara except for the A&M game with no Hurd.....Did you notice with Hurd back Kamara pretty much disappeared? Tells me the coaches don't know how to use 2 very good weapons. Ark and Ole Miss passed for over 400 yards on Bama and we tried to run between the tackles and run 4 yard pass routes at the best front 7 in college football....and yes, the flare passes for 3 yard losses.

I fully expect Open Date to be up 21-0 at the end of the 1st.

[BanditVol]

Well, they aren't FCS teams but, yes, they're certainly better than average mid-majors. However, they aren't any better than any of the other teams left on our schedule, sans Tennessee Tech. Given how we struggled to beat Appalachian State and Ohio, with the current injury situation added in, I shudder to think what's going to happen down the stretch. If we lose one of the next five, this fan base goes into meltdown mode and we have to seriously question just how far this program has advanced, after all...but if something doesn't change, that's a very real possibility. This season has been a lot of fun thus far, but we all knew you couldn't consistently fall behind by two or three scores and be a 12-0 team, or even an 11-1 team. What I think most of us didn't want to consider is that you can't play like that and be a 10-2 team, either.

App state was simply an awful game.  Ohio is a bit different....we never trailed in that game. Could have played better.

I think that in spite of the recent setback the team is much better than against app st. The only thing giving some concern is the injuries. USA Jr may be a struggle.

Agree that fan base will melt down if we lose another. I don't think it will happen.

[Tnphil]

I don't pay a lot of attention to these things.....but last night the ESPN Football Power Index had us at only a 14% chance of winning out.

[Black Diamond Vol]

I don't pay a lot of attention to these things.....but last night the ESPN Football Power Index had us at only a 14% chance of winning out.

Assuming we keep losing players at a rate of 4-5 a game, I can see that.

[BanditVol]

I don't pay a lot of attention to these things.....but last night the ESPN Football Power Index had us at only a 14% chance of winning out.

what they do is take all the percentages of each individual game and multiply them together, which is the correct way to do it.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi?id=2633&year=2016

If you look at the link, and see the regular season projections, and multiply them together,  the chance of winning out in the REGULAR SEASON is 46%.

But notice that the chance of winning out is 12.3%, but that apparently includes winning the SEC, the chances of which are 12.9%.  (interestingly, the difference is the odds we lose to Tennessee Tech but win in Atlanta...we can lose one our remaining OOC game and still go to Atlanta, but chances of going to Atlanta and winning with an additional SEC loss are less than 0.1%, not surprisingly).

Thus I think they are projecting we have about a 28% chance to win the SECCG (which is likely calculated as a weighted percent of xxx likely to be bammer at yyy percent, zzz likely to be LSU at www percent, etc.). 

So...not as bad as it first seems, when you realize they are including the SECCG.   

Having said that, I'd like the regular season to be a bit higher than 46%, but notice that chances of beating Vandy are now 75% due to their recent victory.   These odds will improve week by week as we win.

For contrast, even bammer's chance of winning out is only 33.8%, although their chances of winning the conference are 60.8% (that is, they can drop one and still likely win the conference).

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi?id=333&year=2016

[BanditVol]

I got interested enough to compile all the team's odds for winning the SECCG

bammer       60%
Tamu           14%
Tennessee    13%
gaytors         6%
LSU              4%
Auburn          2%
Ole Miss        0.2%
Uga              0.1%

Everyone else...less than 0.01%

Very interesting...we are still the Eastern division fave  by 2:1.  Suck it Foley!   

[PirateVOL]

.  Suck it Foley!   

Tsk, Tsk, such bad language
Perhaps I was a bad influence Saturday ....

[BanditVol]

Tsk, Tsk, such bad language
Perhaps I was a bad influence Saturday ....

Probably...but I would have said that anyway.